USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Erika will likely only slightly strengthen over the next 24-48 hours as shear resides to the west of her, but not strong enough to kill her off and SSTs are rising in her track. Also dry air appears to be less of a problem, just shear is currently as the upper level anticyclone has become displaced from her LLC. She has such a large circulation this could be keeping her from intensifying rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 http://www.hfip.org/products/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Slow strengthening over the next 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The intensity of models like the GFDL and HWRF are pretty bullish. HWRF usually is anyways, but quite the difference from the GFS op and 12z euro op. 00z euro op looked like it went back to a cane again. My workload may get fun this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Erika looking better on sat imagery this am more storms firing around the center of circulation and expanding a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's amazing how the tropical snobs in the main thread will always dry hump the weakest models, even when the middle of the road still shows a cat 1 or cat 2 near Florida early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's amazing how the tropical snobs in the main thread will always dry hump the weakest models, even when the middle of the road still shows a cat 1 or cat 2 near Florida early next week. Sounds like some of the post we get in the winter threads when there is a legit threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Not to go too off topic here, but since it was brought up... There are always people who bittercast everything, some of it is because they're used to let downs and more often than not things don't work out as potent than modeled (some obviously overperform, but that vast majority don't) there's a reason we have the laws of averages. But still, there's no reason to at least not be subjective and discuss the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's amazing how the tropical snobs in the main thread will always dry hump the weakest models, even when the middle of the road still shows a cat 1 or cat 2 near Florida early next week. I can't tolerate that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Nah, ... some people "bittercast" because they simply take Schadenfreude (pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune) from other's unhappiness. They literally think it is fun/funny to strategically wait that four or five posts after someone sounded off optimistic (for anything really...) to then swoop in and save the "realism" day with some verbal jest that erodes the foundation upon which the former individual based their optimism. But they are just as prone to being full of it, too, so no one wins ...certainly don't learn anything. There's that, plus ... some folks are also just knee-jerk petty about this stuff, and are seemingly programmed to automatically be contrarian to everything that is posted. It becomes difficult to interpret, much less even detect at times, this particular type of douche-bag; and then ... when in difficult comprehension, the human tendency to assume the dark intent takes over and well...heh, things thus get dodgy - When you combine those two flavors of trolling, you end up with a pressure cooker of poop opinions that taste like what they are: schit! The result ( despite sounding purely cynical, presently), belies real facts and/or the truer reflection of real tendencies. Speaking of weather pattern tendencies, that is - ------ Annyway ... truly fantastic overnight (00z) panoply of modeled, synoptic evolution's for the middle and extended ranges. The mean of all takes a Category 3 or even 4 Erika precariously E of Florida, then stalls it, while (particularly in the Euro - wow!) there is a near historic heat wave billowing over top with ridge slowly progressive from the OV to upper MA and NE regions. The concurrence of those two entities is pretty amazing looking there... The implications thereafter are difficult to visualize, because as the ridge axis moves E and mutes in time, it will effectively block a recurve from the Euro/model-blend position (D6/7+). So where does Erika go? That would be a tough blow (pun most certainly intended...!) to the Bahamas should she arrive there with tempestuous teeth and literally chew on that archipelago like a remorseless cosmic lawn mower like that. To mention the insane surf it would send up along the lower EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I can't tolerate that thread.It's a pain to sift through sometimes, but there are also many incredibly knowledgeable posters there. When (insert explatives of choice here) hits the fan Superstorm93 can always be counted on for some truly incredible graphic maps, the guy has the most amazing maps for hurricanes, severe weather and stroms in general than almost anyone on the this board (and he really knows his stuff too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I like the sound of that.....Bahamas ravaged by a major for 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 It's a pain to sift through sometimes, but there are also many incredibly knowledgeable posters there. When (insert explatives of choice here) hits the fan Superstorm93 can always be counted on for some truly incredible graphic maps, the guy has the most amazing maps for hurricanes, severe weather and stroms in general than almost anyone on the this board (and he really knows his stuff too) Yes, there is certainly value in those threads, which is why I do drive by reads. But my involvement there is relegated to just that. IDK is he is still around, but that "Kush" dude was one of the worst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Looks to me as though outflow is starting to expand in the nw quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Turtlehurricane has a really odd proclamation of how the gfs and euro are terrible for the tropics. I didn't understand that...it's not meant to be a HWRF type model, but for track purposes and something to gauge intensity...they are very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Nah, ... some people "bittercast" because they simply take Schadenfreude (pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune) from other's unhappiness. They literally think it is fun/funny to strategically wait that four or five posts after someone sounded off optimistic (for anything really...) to then swoop in and save the "realism" day with some verbal jest that erodes the foundation upon which the former individual based their optimism. But they are just as prone to being full of it, too, so no one wins ...certainly don't learn anything. There's that, plus ... some folks are also just knee-jerk petty about this stuff, and are seemingly programmed to automatically be contrarian to everything that is posted. It becomes difficult to interpret, much less even detect at times, this particular type of douche-bag; and then ... when in difficult comprehension, the human tendency to assume the dark intent takes over and well...heh, things thus get dodgy - When you combine those two flavors of trolling, you end up with a pressure cooker of poop opinions that taste like what they are: schit! The result ( despite sounding purely cynical, presently), belies real facts and/or the truer reflection of real tendencies. Speaking of weather pattern tendencies, that is Those people are what the Germans call backpfeifengesicht, which roughly translates to a face in need of a good punching. Anyway, nice convection near the center now. Intrigued by this one to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Congrats Ft Lauderdale Boca Raton, NHC 75 mph at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Turtlehurricane has a really odd proclamation of how the gfs and euro are terrible for the tropics. I didn't understand that...it's not meant to be a HWRF type model, but for track purposes and something to gauge intensity...they are very important. He's insufferable, and picks arguments with other Red Taggers just to rag on them. He then has the odd sens of self-righteousness to call AmWx a communist state. Laughable. Back to Erika...The two models that are on the far right side of the guidance also rapidly intensify Erika. That outlier solution can probably be tossed, which further supports the argument for land interaction down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I don't understand why the more robust outlooks are automatically tossed. It looks healthy at the moment.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Congrats Ft Lauderdale Boca Raton, NHC 75 mph at 120 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The mean track seems to take the storm just north of Hispaniola. Do people think this could prove disruptive to the circulation? I seem to recall Irene running into problems with its southerly inflow from the mountain peaks. Sinking air and whatnot. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Between FL and the Carolina's looks like the likely landing spot right now, Cat 2 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Nah, ... some people "bittercast" because they simply take Schadenfreude (pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune) from other's unhappiness. They literally think it is fun/funny to strategically wait that four or five posts after someone sounded off optimistic (for anything really...) to then swoop in and save the "realism" day with some verbal jest that erodes the foundation upon which the former individual based their optimism. But they are just as prone to being full of it, too, so no one wins ...certainly don't learn anything. There's that, plus ... some folks are also just knee-jerk petty about this stuff, and are seemingly programmed to automatically be contrarian to everything that is posted. It becomes difficult to interpret, much less even detect at times, this particular type of douche-bag; and then ... when in difficult comprehension, the human tendency to assume the dark intent takes over and well...heh, things thus get dodgy - When you combine those two flavors of trolling, you end up with a pressure cooker of poop opinions that taste like what they are: schit! The result ( despite sounding purely cynical, presently), belies real facts and/or the truer reflection of real tendencies. Speaking of weather pattern tendencies, that is Those people are what the Germans call backpfeifengesicht, which roughly translates to a face in need of a good punching. Anyway, nice convection near the center now. Intrigued by this one to some degree. You literally could have a 150kt cane in the Bahamas on a due West heading and someone would find a way to put a meh spin on it by saying it will probably undergo an untimely ERC or that it doesn't quite look perfect on satellite. Very annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The TUTT, at least for the time being, appears to be getting out of the way. Those "fingers" of outflow developing in the nw quad are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 The TUTT, at least for the time being, appears to be getting out of the way. Those "fingers" of outflow developing in the nw quad are impressive. I would like to see this flare-up not be related to a diurnal max, and last througn the day and into the night. I can recall a few times where such good convection completely crapped out after 18z in some borderline storms. There will be shear, but if it can keep convection going, it has a much better chance of surviving, then..say a storm that cannot keep good sustained convection. If it can stay away from Shrederola, it certainly has a chance of staying stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 I would like to see this flare-up not be related to a diurnal max, and last througn the day and into the night. I can recall a few times where such good convection completely crapped out after 18z in some borderline storms. There will be shear, but if it can keep convection going, it has a much better chance of surviving, then..say a storm that cannot keep good sustained convection. If it can stay away from Shrederola, it certainly has a chance of staying stronger. There is light shear as evidenced by external cloud tops lazily pluming off to the ne, but it is light enough to not be of a detriment at present. Convection, yea...obviously we want to see that persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 Meh at least something to follow next few days.. Florida apocalypse on the news coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 12z GFS with a weak but organized system in the Bahamas in 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 There is light shear as evidenced by external cloud tops lazily pluming off to the ne, but it is light enough to not be of a detriment at present. Convection, yea...obviously we want to see that persist. I think the shear may increase a bit, but I'm not in the poo-poo camp either. I noticed the 12z GFS looks better in terms of not opening it up to a wave now. If you look at all the guidance, many models are above 50-60kts which may be telling. Of course hurricane intensity is difficult to determine, but I think writing it off as a garbage 40kt TS is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 12z GFS with a weak but organized system in the Bahamas in 4-5 days. The important thing is that we have good consensus in the vicinity of the Bahamas. I've always used globals primarily for track relative to the tropics, as opposed to strength. Intensity trends, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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