2015 Tropical Season Thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I was wrong about Danny restrengthening and heading up the East Coast or recurving, he is currently dead in my opinion, the hurricane hunters were unable to find a discernible circulation and now he is gone. I for one am sorry for over thinking this system. that is my mistake. However if I were to gather an opinion on 98L I would say it is more likely than not to either impact the East Coast of the US or go out to sea. Models for the most part exception being the GFS and the HWRF and GFDL 12z runs do develop 98L into Ericka and a large upper level anticyclone stays with Ericka throughout her Atlantic trip. If the EURO and CMC are correct, then Ericka could become a powerful western Atlantic Ocean hurricane between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of NC while a large ridge anchors itself to the northeast of Ericka and pushes her to the northwest. Time will tell for sure, as this is 10 days away from being the case.

Danny had no shot. A micro cane cannot handle any shear at all!!!! Erika looks good. I think this is the surfers storm. Long track Cape Verde heading on a heading with twords the east coast

[ROOSTA]

GFS ENS P18

 

CAN ENS P18

 

Both look fishy

[ineedsnow]

GFS ENS P18

20150823g_084.png

 

CAN ENS P18

20150823_084.png

 

Both look fishy

slams sne on this map shows 963 over rhode island

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GEFS/2015082312/p18_USA_PRMSL_msl_360.gif

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Although I think Danny is dead, I'm not totally convinced he stays that way.

[CT Rain]

This thread is a quadruple bunner.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

98L looks very promising, close to depression status as low level circulation is tightening up just east of the main convective blow up.  banding on the southern semi circle lends me to believe this is a depression already.

[Typhoon Tip]

Wouldn't surprise me if Erika comes on line ..as in, bi-passing TD status.  

 

I could be very wrong, but I have seen enough of these hi res loops in my day ...where the subsequent report from DIVORAK and so forth are at lower level TS status to suspect that to be so.  We'll see...

[Typhoon Tip]

It doesn't seem the base-line pattern would favor an EC impactor without a goodly deal of exceptional timing, which by definition is too rare to carry much hope as an irresponsible destruction zealot ... 

 

The better years are when the frequency of trough amplitudes are W of the 80th lon, such that you have a nice deep layer steering going S-N of the EC.  

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I would favor the out to sea route as well Tip.

[IsentropicLift]

The latest guidance shows a steady strengthening trend throughout the next 5-7 days. I also don't think the track screams recurve, and the spaghetti models continue to show a large spread beyond day 4.

 

 

 

98L will likely have to survive shear increasing around day 4 as it nears the areas that Danny has just crossed, however it looks like 98L will be a much larger system and that should help. Also, there is much less dry air around in the wake of Danny.

[Typhoon Tip]

The latest guidance shows a steady strengthening trend throughout the next 5-7 days. I also don't think the track screams recurve, and the spaghetti models continue to show a large spread beyond day 4.

 

 

 

 

98L will likely have to survive shear increasing around day 4 as it nears the areas that Danny has just crossed, however it looks like 98L will be a much larger system and that should help. Also, there is much less dry air around in the wake of Danny.

 

What's interesting there for me .. I distinctly recall seeing graphical presentation in the past, re plots of known New England hurricane tracks spanning over a hundred years, and there was a kind of 'key-slot', hot-dog bun lat/lon canal that something like 90% of all cyclones laid in like a mustard 'crout dog.  

 

It was very near where the mean of that product is, about 70 or so km NNE of the PR.  When a beefy wiener schnitzel slips into that key narrow corridor of condiments ... threads on weather forums fill up with deeply profound food critical analysis over how good the cookout tastes with their bloated opinions...  

[ineedsnow]

Hope its hits somewhere on the coast as a cane I want something fun to chase

[JC-CT]

It was very near where the mean of that product is, about 70 or so km NNE of the PR. I a beef wiener schnitzel slipped into that key narrow corridor of condiments ... threads on weather forums fill up with deeply profound food critical analysis over how good the cookout tastes with bloated opinions...

Trippy tippy indeed.

[dryslot]

What's interesting there for me .. I distinctly recall seeing graphical presentation in the past, re plots of known New England hurricane tracks spanning over a hundred years, and there was a kind of 'key-slot', hot-dog bun lat/lon canal that something like 90% of all cyclones laid in like a mustard 'crout dog.  

 

It was very near where the mean of that product is, about 70 or so km NNE of the PR.  When a beefy wiener schnitzel slips into that key narrow corridor of condiments ... threads on weather forums fill up with deeply profound food critical analysis over how good the cookout tastes with their bloated opinions...  

 

And when they track south or well north of there, Most folks just puke in there mouth and move on

[IsentropicLift]

Ever notice how a majority of the main thread tropical snobs cringe at the idea of an East coast landfall North of say SW SC? Yet, we as North easterners root for a scenario like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ever notice how a majority of the main thread tropical snobs cringe at the idea of an East coast landfall North of say SW SC? Yet, we as North easterners root for a scenario like that.

Yes.

They cringe because they are no longer 100% tropical.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Tip has derailed.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

12z GEFS individual members are spilt between three scenarios: 1.) out to sea between Bermuda and NC, 2.) SE US coastline landfall, 3.) travel in the GOM.  EURO is in line with the GFS operational model in showing whatever remains of Erika heading into Tampa Bay sometime around day 10.

[mob1]

Yes.

They cringe because they are no longer 100% tropical.

At higher latitudes storms are also less likely to mix down the truly impressive sustained winds as an inversion is usually in play when the system isn't truly fully tropical, so even during the major hurricanes we've had in this region you wouldn't see the 100 mph sustained winds you'd see in the the same magnitude storm in the deep tropics (gusts in the right quadrant of the hurricanes are a different story) but for all of people who aren't from this region they'd MUCH rather see a significant storm down south. We're obviously biased here, but just think about it like 2 major significant severe weather events are unfolding, one in Kansas and the other in Montana, which would you rather follow?

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip has derailed.

Having trouble decoding metaphors are we? That's humor dingus. Sides I was the one who said they go right to tropical storm with that feature so somewhere in there there must've been a modicum of insight. Or not

[ineedsnow]

Euro has a pretty strong hurricane off the southeast coast

[40/70 Benchmark]

Having trouble decoding metaphors are we? That's humor dingus. Sides I was the one who said they go right to tropical storm with that feature so somewhere in there there must've been a modicum of insight. Or not

No.

Glad you can decode a bit of sardonic levity.

 

Tough crowd.

[40/70 Benchmark]

At higher latitudes storms are also less likely to mix down the truly impressive sustained winds as an inversion is usually in play when the system isn't truly fully tropical, so even during the major hurricanes we've had in this region you wouldn't see the 100 mph sustained winds you'd see in the the same magnitude storm in the deep tropics (gusts in the right quadrant of the hurricanes are a different story) but for all of people who aren't from this region they'd MUCH rather see a significant storm down south. We're obviously biased here, but just think about it like 2 major significant severe weather events are unfolding, one in Kansas and the other in Montana, which would you rather follow?

Thanks for the insight regarding the mixing.

I didn't know that.

 

Anyway, even prior to that enlightenment....I could understand it.

 

Pure meteorological phenomena is where it is at.

No one wants an atmospheric red-headed step child. (Hey Tip, I did it!)

[dryslot]

At least Erika has a shot at the east coast on its current track, Moving right along as well but should start to slow down some as it skirts the Leewards,  Danny had no shot

[Typhoon Tip]

No.

Glad you can decode a bit of sardonic levity.

Tough crowd.

Back at ya - just bein' a wise ass

[40/70 Benchmark]

Back at ya - just bein' a wise ass

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Ryan gave it the "maybe possibly interesting" endorsement on FB.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I posted this elsewhere, but I'll reiterate: "While mid- and upper-level shear has relaxed over the system, the strong low-level easterlies have continued to prevent convection from organizing near the center overnight, during the nighttime convective maximum. The fact that Erika hasn't strengthened will only hurt it over the next few days as it passes near the TUTT axis and continues to deal with stable air, plus less energy for latent heat of condensation thanks to Danny's impact on the sea surface temperature profile. Models don't do well with these weak systems, and given how Erika looks now, its center becoming even more dislocated from the convection (on latest visible imagery) is a death sentence for such a weak system.

 

Unless it can regenerate convection within the next 12 hours or so, Erika will likely weaken to a depression and then open up into a wave near the islands, as the GFS and the ECMWF ensembles have indicated for some time (the fact that the latest operational ECMWF keeps Erika intact doesn't mean much, as it differs significantly from its ensembles). In these cases, trust the mean of the global ensembles--especially that of the ECMWF ensembles--more than individual operational runs. Given that the NHC is still unclear about its intensity forecast even within three days, there is at least an equal chance that Erika will dissipate within the said time frame.

 

I'm willing to place a bet that Erika won't last more than another day and that it may have already weakened to a depression, considering its disorganization and meager convective pattern on satellite. ... As I mentioned earlier, all the strengthening occurs beyond three days, when forecasting errors increase significantly and confidence drops precipitously." The dynamical (12Z) GFDL and HWRF models have continued to lower their intensity expectations within three days, consistent with trends over the past few days. They show Erika basically remaining steady through 72 hours, even hinting at some weakening in the meantime.

 

Furthermore, "Also, some people believe that even if it opens into a wave, ex-Erika can still regenerate in the Bahamas, the eastern Gulf, or the Straits of Florida. There are several major problems with this hypothesis. 1) You would need a well-defined area of vorticity left. If Erika were to degenerate into a dry wave for several days, it would lose much of the convection-driven vorticity needed to sustain a low pressure center. 2) When you're back to square one--with a system having to resume its life cycle from the beginning--you will need favorable conditions in place. If you're dealing with a dried-out wave, you will need MUCH more favorable conditions in place, because you're starting out with less of a system. Currently, none of the reliable models indicates that conditions around the FL peninsula or in the eastern Gulf will be favorable for rapid development, hence the NHC's call for gradual intensification by day five, assuming an intact Erika. 3) A weaker ex-Erika in the short term would move farther south and west with the low-level trade winds, meaning significant land interaction with mountainous Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba."

Just swallow an oozie while awaiting the latest severe fail.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We're on a roll, may as well recruit clichéGOAvortex to discuss "winter"...

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Erika looks to be maintaining intensity or slightly strengthening as convection continues to build over the center of circulation which on current track will miss the NE Lesser Antilles islands.