SnoSki14 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Danny will be dead in a couple days or less. Strong shear versus tiny storm is a deadly combo for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 GFDL tries to restrengthen significantly N of the PR fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 The thing had a huge temp difference between inside and outside the eyewall. That's really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 GFDL tries to restrengthen significantly N of the PR fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Stronger storm should have a more poleward motion then a weaker one. I think he takes a beating for a while only to come back for round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Another tick North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Actually the Euro even shows it restrengthening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Yeah, this might be more interesting than originally thought. While it will very likely weaken initially it'll be interesting to see where it goes and if it can restrengthen down the line, man it's been a long time since we've seen anything exciting, the concept of a decent storm out in the Atlantic is exciting enough now. It's funny that after all the crazy hurricane activity in the in the mid 2000's I used to yawn when I saw a major hurricane that didn't threaten a landmass, now all I want to see is solid structure. Disclaimer; when I say "weaken initially" I am obviously not talking about the 5 PM advoriry, I can't stand having two misconstrued posts in the same day (people take life too serious these days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 It seems Danny went through an RI over the last 24 hours .. .or close to it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Yes Tip, he went through some form of RI, I was right the other day when said he could peak before the islands as a category three hurricane. However I was wrong with the timing of it. He will likely weaken in the next couple of days and then around the time of Tuesday when he is positioned north of Hispaniola in my opinion he will likely be a strong storm once again. Whether or not its a hurricane or not is not a guess I will try to make currently. Let's see how he interacts with the wall of wind shear to his WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I believe Danny will recurve over the Bahamas and west of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I agree WxWatcher, I think Danny will reintensify over the Bahamas and head northward and recurve. He could stall and then swing back westward into the East Coast, but that is too far out to tell. Very Warm SSTs south of 40N: 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 The one to watch in my opinion is future 98l unless it goes right to a depression 60 percent chance in 5 days and looks great only thinh is its moving at 25 mph so might strengthen slowly I agree WxWatcher, I think Danny will reintensify over the Bahamas and head northward and recurve. He could stall and then swing back westward into the East Coast, but that is too far out to tell. Very Warm SSTs south of 40N: 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Danny is the one to watch, he could still come up the East Coast as a major hurricane once he nears the Bahamas he will have ample fuel and a dynamic atmosphere to work with. Question is how does the ridging hold up in the next five to ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 23, 2015 Author Share Posted August 23, 2015 Danny looks like he's against the ropes right now, really taking a beating from the shear and dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Danny is producing a renewed convective burst over his center, but a little off to the northeast of the center. I think Danny will become a Major Hurricane again and threaten the Eastern US. I think recurving is becoming less likely as ridging replaces the troughing over the Eastern US around day 6-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Danny continues to fight in the face of 30 knots of wind shear from the southwest, the worst direction shear can come from for a tropical cyclone. Also the next 24 hours are critical in determining the fate of Danny. If he maintains intensity or intensifies a little overnight tonight into tomorrow he can avoid the islands of PR and Hispaniola. And if he does so he can reintensify rapidly once over the Bahamas and southwest of Bermuda. Models are beginning to show the emergence of a ridge over the eastern US and extending into the Bermuda/Azores high pressure center. Once he gets to near Bermuda he may be pushed west again towards the Eastern Seaboard of the US and make landfall from SC to MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Danny is dunzo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 98l might be our storm gfs and euro look to be onboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Yeah Danny looks dead to me right now, wind shear and dry air are doing its thing right now and Danny is trying to fight it off, I will still watch Danny over the Bahamas or whatever is left of him in case there is a chance for regeneration, but right now it looks like models want to bury him over the islands of PR and Hispaniola. Invest 98L looks healthy and the EURO really blows it up over the western Atlantic Ocean with a ridge building on top of it, could push it westward with time after day 10. Something we need to keep our eyes on for sure as Danny paves the way for 98L to go north of the islands. Hurricane Models are not initialized yet for 98L, I wonder when that will happen. GFDL still insists that Danny becomes a category three hurricane north of Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Yea, this thing will likely bend to the left with it getting so weak....blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 98l might be our storm gfs and euro look to be onboard That is the one I gave a shutout to on Friday, while still over Africa... Agreed.....only takes one in an otherwise lame season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Yeah remember the 1992 season, it only took one hurricane to make in memorable, Hurricane Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 canadian turns 98l into a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Yeah the Canadian has been consistent with 98L. NHC gave 98L a 70% chance of developing within the next two days and an 80% chance at developing within the next five days. 98L and the wave behind it seem to be the only play now, Danny might as well die over Hispaniola. By the way, there is a developing 850-700mb low circulation east of SC and NC coastlines. Interesting, but too much shear over it currently. Trying to develop over very warm water.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 i think gefs member p18 would make all of us very happy wow if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 i think gefs member p18 would make all of us very happy wow if only Post this please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 I was wrong about Danny restrengthening and heading up the East Coast or recurving, he is currently dead in my opinion, the hurricane hunters were unable to find a discernible circulation and now he is gone. I for one am sorry for over thinking this system. that is my mistake. However if I were to gather an opinion on 98L I would say it is more likely than not to either impact the East Coast of the US or go out to sea. Models for the most part exception being the GFS and the HWRF and GFDL 12z runs do develop 98L into Ericka and a large upper level anticyclone stays with Ericka throughout her Atlantic trip. If the EURO and CMC are correct, then Ericka could become a powerful western Atlantic Ocean hurricane between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of NC while a large ridge anchors itself to the northeast of Ericka and pushes her to the northwest. Time will tell for sure, as this is 10 days away from being the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 I was wrong about Danny restrengthening and heading up the East Coast or recurving, he is currently dead in my opinion, the hurricane hunters were unable to find a discernible circulation and now he is gone. I for one am sorry for over thinking this system. that is my mistake. However if I were to gather an opinion on 98L I would say it is more likely than not to either impact the East Coast of the US or go out to sea. Models for the most part exception being the GFS and the HWRF and GFDL 12z runs do develop 98L into Ericka and a large upper level anticyclone stays with Ericka throughout her Atlantic trip. If the EURO and CMC are correct, then Ericka could become a powerful western Atlantic Ocean hurricane between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of NC while a large ridge anchors itself to the northeast of Ericka and pushes her to the northwest. Time will tell for sure, as this is 10 days away from being the case. Damn El Nino! It's killing our hurricane season. Hope winter doesn't suffer the same fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 its on instantweathermaps but you have to pay for it so not sure if i can post it but it would destroy us lol fun to look at but wont happen Post this please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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