CT Valley Snowman Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 TS Bill has made landfall in Texas and is causing more flooding and severe weather issues. The remnants may track near us later Sunday and produce a period of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Most official forecasts from Bill Gray, NOAA, TWC, Accuweather, etc,. are calling for another below average season in the Atlantic due to the effects of the El Nino in the Pacific which can create a more hostile development for cyclone development with increased dry air and wind shear in the Atlantic Basin. As we know, it only takes one landfalling storm in a relatively benign season to cause a significant impact and even if the African wave train and the ITCZ area is hostile ,we can still get in close development. I'm hoping we can get some excitement tracking at least a few storms this upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Should get some good rains from bill tonight already getting a few downpours and some gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ssula Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 As we know, it only takes one landfalling storm in a relatively benign season to cause a significant impact and even if the African wave train and the ITCZ area is hostile ,we can still get in close development. I'm hoping we can get some excitement tracking at least a few storms this upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 ...I was just thinking, huh, no one started a "2015 No Tropical Season Waste Of Bandwidth Thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 ...I was just thinking, huh, no one started a "2015 No Tropical Season Waste Of Bandwidth Thread It only takes one..... 92????? The micro cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Tropical threads in the New England forum are scintillating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Tropical threads in the New England forum are scintillating. lol, almost more so than the Severe T Storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Damn, fooled me into thinking there was something worth reading in here. Can you "sticky" a thread to the last page instead of the first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 It only takes three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Tropical threads in the New England forum are scintillating. They did get interesting in 8/2011 and 10/2012. That ignores the other 98%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Fish food - Tropical Storm Claudette - next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Fish food - Tropical Storm Claudette - next. Expect to see plenty more sheared out messes like this this season. A few years ago this wouldn't have even been classified as it looks like crap on satellite and nhc is using satellite wind measurements to classify it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Expect to see plenty more sheared out messes like this this season. A few years ago this wouldn't have even been classified as it looks like crap on satellite and nhc is using satellite wind measurements to classify it ? It looked formidable this afternoon (pic included), and while the convection has become more distanced from the COC over the past few hours, it is still producing deep convection. You'd have to go back quite a while to reach a time when the NHC wouldn't classify this—2002 had at least three weak named storms of baroclinic origin off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 ? It looked formidable this afternoon (pic included), and while the convection has become more distanced from the COC over the past few hours, it is still producing deep convection. You'd have to go back quite a while to reach a time when the NHC wouldn't classify this—2002 had at least three weak named storms of baroclinic origin off the East Coast. Fair enough, I didn't know it looked better earlier. And I agree it would have been classified. Still I think if you're looking for action this season that's where to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Its really to bad that 93l is not going to be much taking the perfect track where things could have been interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Congrats ACKwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Euro has had it for a few days now but its been al over the place 12z will probably be by bermuda again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Needle, Thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Well, not quite Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 we surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 yeah, sweet lookin' Bobbarino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Perfect swell position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Euro with a 1960 TS Brenda like run last night according to JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Euro with a 1960 TS Brenda like run last night according to JB very meh up here, good rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 very meh up here, good rainer Had gusts over 55 in SNE on East side. #damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Had gusts over 55 in SNE on East side. #damage on Block Island, South coast 40s inland 25-30, 1.82 inches of rain in Storrs, meh but probably excellent surf, temps were in the 70's all day too. Just another solution the Euro has thrown out, EPS not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Still highly doubt we see anyhing more then a sheared out mess deep in the MDR. About say 25 is probably the only hope once out of the nuke shear zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Still highly doubt we see anyhing more then a sheared out mess deep in the MDR. About say 25 is probably the only hope once out of the nuke shear zone Keep in mind, it's August 1st. I realize we have a burgeoning warn ENSO to statistically overcome here... but honestly, I haven't seen much evidence that shear is the problem here - and shear being the primary inhibitor during warm ENSOs. That factor doesn't appear to me to have actually kicked in, is what I am saying. It appears the limitations thus far are for other reasons, and one thing I am noticing is a dearth of frequency and potency escaping off the African continent thus far. This has been an intra-continental sickly affair over Africa, and those waves just haven't been coming off the continent with much biceps. That's important, because immediately leaving the continent out there, they usually encounter "slightly" cooler water, SAL and sometimes higher pressure, and the weaker waves will struggle through that. in 1995 there were ... wait. Holy smokes! That was 20 years ago?! That's depressing... Anyway, the season was negligible until August, and at one time mid month there were all of the sudden, like I think 5 cyclones trackable out of no where. The season went on to boast historical numbers, a status held until 10 years later in 2005.. .which is now 10 years ago. wtf! Point being, this can turn around in a hurry, and yes ... do so anomalous relative to the in situ ENSO. Now ... I don't know what goes into the Roundy Probabilities, but it can't be entirely useless. HPC has referred to it a few times over the years.. Those outlooks for August are giant here. If the lesser shear we are observing continues, things may just gin up -- we'll have to see. One thing that's interesting is that the Pacific's anomalies are LESS than the Atlantic. Not something typically seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Keep in mind, it's August 1st. I realize we have a burgeoning warn ENSO to statistically overcome here... but honestly, I haven't seen much evidence that shear is the problem here - and shear being the primary inhibitor during warm ENSOs. That factor doesn't appear to me to have actually kicked in, is what I am saying. It appears the limitations thus far are for other reasons, and one thing I am noticing is a dearth of frequency and potency escaping off the African continent thus far. This has been an intra-continental sickly affair over Africa, and those waves just haven't been coming off the continent with much biceps. That's important, because immediately leaving the continent out there, they usually encounter "slightly" cooler water, SAL and sometimes higher pressure, and the weaker waves will struggle through that. in 1995 there were ... wait. Holy smokes! That was 20 years ago?! That's depressing... Anyway, the season was negligible until August, and at one time mid month there were all of the sudden, like I think 5 cyclones trackable out of no where. The season went on to boast historical numbers, a status held until 10 years later in 2005.. .which is now 10 years ago. wtf! Point being, this can turn around in a hurry, and yes ... do so anomalous relative to the in situ ENSO. Now ... I don't know what goes into the Roundy Probabilities, but it can't be entirely useless. HPC has referred to it a few times over the years.. Those outlooks for August are giant here. If the lesser shear we are observing continues, things may just gin up -- we'll have to see. One thing that's interesting is that the Pacific's anomalies are LESS than the Atlantic. Not something typically seen. I gotcha. But weak waves and a borderline super Nino doesn't exacty sound like a busy MDR season on the way. That and the last few disasters. I wouldn't be surprised to finaly see some decent waves come off and just as they are doing so bam the shear gun starts blasting. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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