WxUSAF Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Storms here were mostly rain. Not much T&L. Flying to Florida on Sunday morning, so hopefully Bill's leftovers don't delay us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Thunder incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 regardless of whether a svr threat materializes, the threat for torrential rain will be there (assuming that the track is being properly captured). the 18z NAM nest has what looks to be an 8"+ bullseye in 6 hours in northern VA Saturday night. Looks like upslope enhancement. I just took a look at the 18z NAM...wow...those are some impressive totals it's spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 regardless of whether a svr threat materializes, the threat for torrential rain will be there (assuming that the track is being properly captured). the 18z NAM nest has what looks to be an 8"+ bullseye in 6 hours in northern VA Saturday night. Looks like upslope enhancement. Tommy Tass. from WBAL depicted a 4+ inch stripe going right across central MD....shows the low coming squarely into MD on Sunday instead of further north in PA like early thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 TOG BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 937 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... LANCASTER COUNTY IN EASTERN VIRGINIA... NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN EASTERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 1015 PM EDT * AT 936 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO OVER MORATTICO...OR NEAR ROBLEY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KILMARNOCK...LANCASTER...MORATTICO...NUTTSVILLE...WEEMS... BERTRAND...BELLE ISLE STATE PARK...ALFONSO...MOLLUSK...LIVELY... SOMERS...CHRIST CHURCH...SENORA AND BROOK VALE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY STORM SPOTTERS. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 926 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 VAC057-159-190145- /O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150619T0145Z/ RICHMOND VA-ESSEX VA- 926 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTIES... AT 926 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHARPS...OR NEAR ROBLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROBLEY...SHARPS...TIDEWATER AND DOWNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 That pop up storm that popped up in PG county was really cool looking. It passed just south of me around sunset. I was standing there looking right up the tower as lightning was arcing out of it. The whole storm was all purple and orenge as the sun went down. Really beautiful storm. It made my day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Boy, I leave the area for NC and this is what I miss. Great reports today and thanks for everyone posting storm impact images. Those were great pics by Famartin. I'll be in Ocean City on Saturday, so hopefully Bill doesn't wash us out when I'm down there. If he does, then it might be a card and drinking day. NAM certainly looks very wet for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 00z NAM soundings for 00z SUN/03z SUNare just silly for our area... sim radar has the LWX region being crushed between 00z and 06z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 possible sprinkles inbound in a couple hours, if even that is left after the storms die coming over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 ugh. the runs of the HRRR this evening have really pulled the plug on this scenario... indeed. multiple cycles now allow the complex in western PA to drop southeast later tonight into our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 ugh. the runs of the HRRR this evening have really pulled the plug on this scenario... Take a look at the NAM and 4km NAM for Saturday. Yoda and I are impressed. If we could speed it up just a touch it'd be golden I bet but even currently it's not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 A pounding in Greenbelt around 5pm. Water was blowing down the sidewalk almost like a wave. 50mph gusts and for 5 minutes it was 6"ph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 hard not to be impressed. some instability, impressive low-level shear, good dynamics. still thinking it's more of a heavy rain event, but I would not be surprised if the day 2 outlook later tonight gives us a slight risk Take a look at the NAM and 4km NAM for Saturday. Yoda and I are impressed. If we could speed it up just a touch it'd be golden I bet but even currently it's not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Fringed by a marginal risk for day 2 from SPC. Sim radar on the NAM run from 06z still looks good but parameters are not printing out the crazy stuff they were last night. Not surprising. High risk is probably going to be correct with the main threat being heavy rain. Hopefully we can just get a bit of enhancement to give us a touch of svr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Could use a gully washer 8"+ event....getting starved for a nice outbreak of flooding or severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Yes. 8" of rain for everyone. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Could use a gully washer 8"+ event....getting starved for a nice outbreak of flooding or severe. Probably won't be anywhere near that right near DC - looks like closer to the mountains was the highlighted jackpot at least on previous runs of the NAM. We'll see what the 12Z NAM has to say about severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Instability looks better than it did on the 6z run of the NAM at least. Good pockets/noses of instability right up into the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 NAM forecast soundings have around 2000 SBCAPE around 00z Sat evening. Helicity is quite high with SE wind at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 NAM forecast soundings have around 2000 SBCAPE around 00z Sat evening. Helicity is quite high with SE wind at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 *snip* That's about as high of a sig tor value as you see around these parts - bullseye right near DC too Now we wait for the NAM to come down off the high its on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 NAM forecast soundings have around 2000 SBCAPE around 00z Sat evening. Helicity is quite high with SE wind at the surface. 2500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 3z is tricky.. can work but often the boundary layer is stabilizing by then. It's definitely close though... shift it up a little more plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 3z is tricky.. can work but often the boundary layer is stabilizing by then. It's definitely close though... shift it up a little more plz. When in reality it'll probably slow down and screw us completely. My guess is we'll be stabilizing but have a shot at a quick gustnado or something when the batch of storms and heavy rain moves in. I'm sure we'll have a slight risk tomorrow - SPC has the marginal placed to our SW for now it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 12z GFS soundings for 00z SUN are decent; they back up the NAM soundings some, but not to the same level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 12z GFS soundings for 00z SUN are decent; they back up the NAM soundings some, but not to the same level NAM is probably too intense with the parameters. Would hedge GFS probably for now. GFS is always tempered. Maybe a middle ground best case scenario. All bets off tho if we can slide the arrival of the system up a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Day 2 SLGT risk issued for LWX CWA... no mentiom of tors (as of yet) ..LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO DELMARVA AREA 30-45 KT SWLYS AT 500 MB WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THIS REGION DOWNSTREAM YIELDING A BROAD SWATH OF AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...DIABATIC HEATING OF A PERSISTENT RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF AT LEAST MODEST BUOYANCY. AS NUMEROUS TSTMS LIKELY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.