Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 We can't close this sucker down until we produce. I'm not sure today is that day though. Not sold on great CAPE today. There's good instability just to the south but we'll see if we can bust into good sunshine to boost it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 In fact...the 1000 SBCAPE line is running right through DC on the latest mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 In fact...the 1000 SBCAPE line is running right through DC on the latest mesoanalysis. 2000 SBCAPE line is moving north quickly as well... its along a line from about MRB to EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 If we leave this thread open until the end of august it would improve the odds of verifying by at least 17%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 HRRR is smoking something. Has widespread storms in the area at 18z it looks like. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Showers just starting to go up in WV/SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 HRRR can be pretty useless without large scale forcing. Loves to over convect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I am going to guess we shall see a MD soon... hopefully its not a meh one... I am still optimistic, but cautiously so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I am going to guess we shall see a MD soon... hopefully its not a meh one... I am still optimistic, but cautiously so it'll be a 40 percent snoozer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 17z mesoanalysis has 2000-3000 SBCAPE across N VA, 1000-2000 MLCAPE, good bulk shear and effective shear, -5 to -6 LIs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 16z HRRRRRRRR looks nice for hr 9 around the DC metro region fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 16z HRRRRRRRR looks nice for hr 9 around the DC metro region fwiw Except that it's probably toss-worthy since it convects widespread stuff around us way earlier which hasn't been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Except that it's probably toss-worthy since it convects widespread stuff around us way earlier which hasn't been the case. True could be... but its just something to look at it while we wait for something... anything... nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Cells in panhandle area of Maryland have tops around 25-30kft. Nothing too impressive as of yet - but storms starting to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Clouded up here for a brief while, but sun and blue skies are back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 17z mesoanalysis has 2000-3000 SBCAPE across N VA, 1000-2000 MLCAPE, good bulk shear and effective shear, -5 to -6 LIs 18z has 2000-2500 SBCAPE, 1000-1500 MLCAPE, still good bulk shear and effective shear, along with LI's of -5 to -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KY...SRN OH...WV...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 181828Z - 182030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL EWD FROM SRN OH/NERN KY ACROSS WV AND INTO NRN VA. DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS LED TO AN ERUPTION OF CELLS OVER NRN KY WHICH WILL SOON MOVE INTO SRN OH AND INTO WV. THIS IS OCCURRING BENEATH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. OVERALL HODOGRAPHS LENGTH IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED CELLS...BUT THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AS WELL AS GENERALLY INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS WELL AS SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES WITH WIND POTENTIAL. IF OVERALL TRENDS CONTINUE UP...A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR POINTS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION. ..JEWELL/KERR.. 06/18/2015 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Fringed and I was right about 40 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Fringed and I was right about 40 percent Fringed and I was right about 40 percent Darn you Intriguing that LWX was mentioning poss tornado threat in their updated morning discussion... SPC meso doesn't even mention teh word tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Should be seeing some warnings soon IMO... storms are intensifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Should be seeing some warnings soon IMO... storms are intensifying Tops 30-35 on that Maryland cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC256 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS PA/NJ TO THE DELMAVA PENNISULAWHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THISAFTERNOON. THIS PUTS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE WARM SECTOR IN A VERYMOIST ENVIONMENT.THE REGION IS UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME WITH 1-2K J/KG OF SBCAPE WITHUPWARDS OF 3.5K J/KG IN CENTRAL VA NEAR THE PIEDMONT AND TIDEWATER.EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS IS ALSO ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATSNEAR 1.7 INCHES. THIS LEADS TO A SET-UP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMSACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC FORCING IS LIMITED WITH A SFCTROUGH EAST OF THE BAY AT THIS TIME. STORMS HAVE FORMED ON THEHIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE APPALACHAINS WITH ISO-SCT STORMS ACROSSTHE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS AREA IS PRIME FORUPDRAFTS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UNSTABLEENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME...THE REGION IS IN A SLGT RISK OF SEVEREWEATHER WITH DMG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS AT THISTIME. ANY STORMS THAT NEAR THE SFC TROUGH MAY INGEST LOW LEVELVORTICITY AND FOR THAT ISOLATED TORS AND WATERSPOUTS AREPOSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR S MD/PIEDMONT AND SURRONDING WATERS.THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION TONIGHT. AMOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST MAY ENTER THE REGION INTO THEEVENING HOURS AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN APPROACHINGDISTURBANCE MAY ALSO INTIATE SOME STORMS MAINLY ACROSS WV. MODELSARE KEEPING QPF WEST OF APPALACHIANS BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFTAND DEWPTS STILL HIGH KEPT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Might get some hail out of the cell over the wash/fdk county line. VIL pushing 65 ETA: tops too low still. Have to see if the cell intensifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Might get some hail out of the cell over the wash/fdk county line. VIL pushing 65 ETA: tops too low still. Have to see if the cell intensifies. General trend seems to be slow intensification. Quite slow in fact. Nothing on the explosive side today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 That cell near Charlestown WV was/is putting up some interesting velocity signatures.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Moco cell growing quick. Starting to get rumbly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Looks like garden variety storms so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Heavy stuff went south of here. Quick shower. Sun back out. Steamy 88/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Looks like another miss in the Burke vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Absoulty getting hammerd over here. Just got a severe Thunderstorm warning issued. The wind is blowing the rain sideways and there is a lot of thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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