dailylurker Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Dead. Severe around here is so, so, so, sad.At least we get snow. Oh, wait.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Take heart! The NAM says we might get rates to overcome temps We know that always works lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Updated HWO from LWX says spotter activation may be needed Wed night or Thursday http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Severe only happens when you guys aren't talking about it and hyping. Like waiting for a watched pot to boil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Good work, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Weekend looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Weekend looks interesting. As long as what's left of Bill tracks to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Weekend looks interesting. Until it's here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 Until it's here This past period never looked very good--probably shouldn't have started a thread to keep my good thread streak going. I could extend it through the weekend into next week to set it straight. Pattern seems pretty favorable weekend onward for a bit for something to happen. Thurs has decent shear but doesn't seem we're going to get the instability needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 This past period never looked very good--probably shouldn't have started a thread to keep my good thread streak going. I could extend it through the weekend into next week to set it straight. Pattern seems pretty favorable weekend onward for a bit for something to happen. Thurs has decent shear but doesn't seem we're going to get the instability needed. I think its more of the MCS or complex that comes through Wed night... not really expecting much for Thursday IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 This past period never looked very good--probably shouldn't have started a thread to keep my good thread streak going. I could extend it through the weekend into next week to set it straight. Pattern seems pretty favorable weekend onward for a bit for something to happen. Thurs has decent shear but doesn't seem we're going to get the instability needed. Does your gut feeling for the weekend say our "regular" severe events or something potentially a bit more widespread (not talking Ivan style) but something involving more than like 2 gustnaders. We really need to get out of this doldrum of weather we've been in. Hopefully the Ian method of persistence is not going to plague us for the remainder of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Once again, SPC hands us a SLGT risk... 2/5/15 ..OH VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC DURING THE DAY ENCOURAGING MODEST WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL LOWER MI...SWWD INTO NRN MO BY 18Z...THEN DEEP INTO THE OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL EVOLVE WELL AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT INTO PORTIONS OF PA/DELMARVA ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY. FORECAST SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 35KT ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE...IT APPEARS PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TSTMS THAT SPREAD SEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Here we go again with the silly soundings -- DCA at 00z FRI (8pm THURS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 BWI 00z FRI (8pm THURS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 HRRR has some stuff moving through later today. 4K NAM nasomuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Local models seem to favor the northern burbs with some other stuff coming out of the mountains near the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Local models seem to favor the northern burbs with some other stuff coming out of the mountains near the end of the run. have the local models ever been right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 have the local models ever been right? Good question. I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 1300 SPC Day 1 OTK Disco... still 2/5/15 ..APPALACHIAN CREST TO TIDEWATER VA DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN HIGHLANDS WILL SPUR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AS LOWER ELEVATIONS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE. BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC ASCENT SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION EASTWARD AMIDST DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERS AND/OR BROKEN LINES OF STORMS CAPABLE OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL...CELLS TRACKING NEAR/ALONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED BACK-DOOR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE DELMARVA REGION COULD SPAWN A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 12z HRRRRRRR has a decent line coming off the Apps around 1pm and crosses I-95 corridor around 3pm... there is a pretty strong cell at the top of the line (supercell?) right over IAD and heads just south of DCA at 19z (3pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 12z NAM still very much gung-ho on the soundings for this evening... good bulk shear and LI's and ML Lapse Rates... SBCAPE is above 3000 J/KG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1000 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATINGTONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAYBEFORE STALLING OUT OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEREMNANTS FROM BILL WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAYAND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXTWEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ZONALFLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDSFROM CENTRAL PA ACROSS NE MD AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ANDSHOULD STAY STALLED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISO-SCT SHOWERS AREEXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS NRN MD TODAY.BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO RISE WEST AND SOUTHOF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...ACROSS MOST OF THE LWX REGION. A SFCTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE WESTERNSHORE OF THE BAY SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN MD/PIEDMONT. WINDS ALOFT WILLALLOW FOR 30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON. THISMAY ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. THEBEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ANDSFC TROUGH MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. DMG WIND GUSTS ANDLARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOESIF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARIES. FURTHER WEST...WESTERLYSFC WINDS MAY CAUSE INHIBITION AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER TERRAINCIRCULATIONS MAY CAUSE STORMS TO FORM ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATINGBOUNDARIES AND MOVE EASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Clearing out south of DC, fwiw. 2pm on the 13Z HRRRR http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2015061813/maryland/hrrr_ref_maryland_6.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 12z NAM sounding at 00z for KEZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 12z HI-RES has what looks to be a supercell in C MD at 4pm... pretty strong one at that -- 60 dBz... and then promptly sends it into DC at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Looks like one of the big reasons why some of the models don't do much in the area is because of lack of instability. NAM is sitting there with like 3000 SBCAPE while some of the models like the 12z RAP and such don't get us much over 1K. We shall see. It's not particularly sunny here for the time being. 12Z NAM is pretty silly - gets supercell parameters of 4-8 or so into the area with high CAPE. But at the same time it's sim reflectivity is very depressing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 12z HI-RES has what looks to be a supercell in C MD at 4pm... pretty strong one at that -- 60 dBz... and then promptly sends it into DC at 5pm That cell does some interesting movement too on the model. Is heading almost due east and then takes a turn to plunge down the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Looks like one of the big reasons why some of the models don't do much in the area is because of lack of instability. NAM is sitting there with like 3000 SBCAPE while some of the models like the 12z RAP and such don't get us much over 1K. We shall see. It's not particularly sunny here for the time being. 12Z NAM is pretty silly - gets supercell parameters of 4-8 or so into the area with high CAPE. But at the same time it's sim reflectivity is very depressing for us. 12z HI-RES NAM looks better for you and me But def agree re instability question -- however, sun is out here and its warming up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I like how the thread title expired 2 days ago and we're still chatting in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.