Bob Chill Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Good # of strikes just to my north with the line. Lots of rumbling as it approached. Pouring now with no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Good # of strikes just to my north with the line. Lots of rumbling as it approached. Pouring now with no wind. Looks to be weakening as of the last few frames over MoCo/HoCo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Gonna miss me. Boo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Gonna miss me. Boo! Not missing much it seems like... the culpeper/fredericksburg stuff looks impressive though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Where's yoda at with the new SLGT day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Perhaps 3 drops of rain/in^2 from yesterday's storms. Need a little more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Where's yoda at with the new SLGT day 1 Revenge of the SLGT risk ETA: ConvT should be breached soon across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Both NAMs are blah for this afternoon re radar reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Both NAMs are blah for this afternoon re radar reflectivity Yep. I'm sure we'll get a garden variety rumbler though as usual this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yep. I'm sure we'll get a garden variety rumbler though as usual this week. I mean I guess we couid still see iso severe like we did yesterday... hopefully its back up near us and not down by EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I mean I guess we couid still see iso severe like we did yesterday... hopefully its back up near us and not down by EZF A lot of the models seem to agree on stuff developing W of the area and then sliding and missing DC just to the south. LWX NMM model hits DC more squarely with activity and SPC WRF (00z) also has more storms than the other models. I'm sure we'll have some sort of activity around - could be fringed in DC, though. You look okay down there in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Could get a few hailers today IMO... ML Lapse Rates are 6.5C/KM along I-81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 15z SPC mesoanalysis is pretty decent for us... ~1500 MLCAPE, 2000 SBCAPE with a small 2500 contour over DCA, LI's -5 to -6, Craven SigSvr at 30 mainly around DCA, LL Lapse Rates ~7.0 C/KM, ML Lapse Rates are approaching 6.5C/KM, 15 to 20 kts 1km shear, bulk shear is around 30 kts (35 kts just NE of DCA), and effective shear is around 25kts for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The severe weenies come across as more desperate and delusional than the snow weenies at this point, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 The last few years have been crap. Climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The last few years have been crap. Climate change. Now you know why Atlanta does not get severe weather after May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Here we go again MD out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OHIO...NERN KY...WEST VIRGINIA...NRN/CNTRL VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...PARTS OF SERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SRN NEW JERSEY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 161615Z - 161815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR CONSOLIDATION INTO EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND THREAT THAT COULD NECESSITATE A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY SHEARED WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SURFACE GUSTS THAT COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD SEEM TO HINGE ON CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO ONE OR MORE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. THIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING ACCOMPANYING ANY ONE OF A NUMBER OF SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING OR PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/16/2015 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL... ILN...LMK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 MD seems sorta meh. Well see, after these last few days, im not getting my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 At least we have a front to work with this time. And the timing isn't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Local models like the 3-8pm time period across the region ETA: 17z SPC mesoanalysis is decent for shear... 30 kts effective and 35 kts bulk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Radar surely isn't very active at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Radar surely isn't very active at this hour. It is in WV... it needs to come over the Apps first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Radar surely isn't very active at this hour.Sky looks really blue. Wonder if there's dry air in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 It is in WV... it needs to come over the Apps first Hmm... I guess well see. Only decent stuff so far seems to be in S WV and Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Sky looks really blue. Wonder if there's dry air in the mid levels. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST OF IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. FORCING ISN`T GREAT WITH IT ALOFT...AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS TENDED TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME LINES OF STORMS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND A FEW POP-UPS HAVE OCCURRED AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST OF DC. WITH SOME DECENT AND WELL-ALIGNED WINDS ALOFT...ANY STORM COULD MIX DOWN SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING...BUT THE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO DIMINISH BY 8PM OR SO AS THE FRONT SLIDES DOWN AND WE LOSE INSOLATION. From the afternoon AFD from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 So... are we going to make a new thread for Thursday's "supposed" threat? Or use this thread since it's working great so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Is today pretty much dead? I can't imagine much getting organized at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Dead. Severe around here is so, so, so, sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Dead. Severe around here is so, so, so, sad. LWX is taunting us for late Saturday as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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