Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 That is a huge change in placement of the risk area from the morning day 2 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Looking at the hourly NAM output, the temperature cools during the evening tomorrow as expected, but that is offset somewhat by the dew points rising (into the mid to upper 70s!) as the southeast flow increases. The progged 0-1 km helicity for 3z is in the 150-200 range with slightly higher values over north-central MD. 3z is tricky.. can work but often the boundary layer is stabilizing by then. It's definitely close though... shift it up a little more plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 00z 5KM ARW shows a line of cells moving in around 5pm.... then brings in another strong line around 8pm. The 00z 5KM NMM is bringing in a powerful line of storms around 8pm. Both the 12z 5KMM NMM and the 12z 5KM ARW is updating now as I post this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 00z 5KM ARW shows a line of cells moving in around 5pm.... then brings in another strong line around 8pm. The 00z 5KM NMM is bringing in a powerful line of storms around 8pm. Both the 12z 5KMM NMM and the 12z 5KM ARW is updating now as I post this Seems among the NAM and the hires models there's pretty good agreement on some sort of line of either heavy rain with iso storms or a line of strong storms coming through. Now we just need to nail down the intensity and whether those storms will tap into the strong helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Seems among the NAM and the hires models there's pretty good agreement on some sort of line of either heavy rain with iso storms or a line of strong storms coming through. Now we just need to nail down the intensity and whether those storms will tap into the strong helicity. 12z HIRES NAM brings in the "line" around 10pm or so, give or take an hour. ETA: Looks like GFS would be between 10pm-12am for the "heaviest" stuff... give or take an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 One thing to consider is that a ton of our severe events come in earlier than expected - either in the form of a line ahead of the "main" line or just an earlier line as a whole. Not sure if this will hold true in this case or with the tropical influence but it is something to consider. Going off our track record - a 0-3z arrival could actually be easily pushed to 21-0z if things come together well enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 12z HIRES NAM brings in the "line" around 10pm or so, give or take an hour. Will check on when GFS comes in 10pm is too late for us to max potential - tho as high risk said we do get higher dewpoints. Take those away and our chances diminish a lot. Our best bet for severe lovers is to hope it comes in closer to the 5pm-8pm timeframe than the 10pm. I think it's doable but that's also the weenie in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4_12z/rloop.html4km ARW model is probably what you want if you want severe chances to go up. Has a good line of activity well into the area by 0z tomorrow eve. NMM hangs it back a decent amount more. It's a game of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Looks pretty cloudy tomorrow which would stomp out any chance. Or am I missing something here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 We don't want it TOO early, as any gains from higher cape will be offset by weaker shear. perhaps there will be a "sweet spot" in the 8PM or so hour in which we find a decent cape/shear balance. 10pm is too late for us to max potential - tho as high risk said we do get higher dewpoints. Take those away and our chances diminish a lot. Our best bet for severe lovers is to hope it comes in closer to the 5pm-8pm timeframe than the 10pm. I think it's doable but that's also the weenie in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 Top analog from CIPS is 6/4/08 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&rundt=2015061912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 most of the progged cloud cover is the mid-levels, and the NAM 2-m temps as well as GFS MOS take DCA up to 90. Looks pretty cloudy tomorrow which would stomp out any chance. Or am I missing something here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Top analog from CIPS is 6/4/08 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&rundt=2015061912 Lol- that was the day my buddies house in Ches Beach got hit by an ef0. Blew his garage door in, ripped off half his shutters, a bunch of shingles and even had a shingle piece embedded through his siding. Topped trees as well. I'll let him know that the weather super computers are using that date as the most similar to Saturday. He'll like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 pretty awesome day. big squall line raced through the area during the early/mid afternoon hours with widespread wind damage and even a few tornadoes embedded. second weaker line, but still with some damage, moved through DC and the northern burbs during the early evening. The first line didn't extend too far south of DC, and it left an outflow boundary across central VA and southern MD. Those areas heated all day, and supercells with some tornadoes tracked along/near that boundary during the early evening. I see why this analogue came up, but this day didn't have the remnants of a tropical system. Top analog from CIPS is 6/4/08 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&rundt=2015061912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Top analog from CIPS is 6/4/08 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&rundt=2015061912 severe weenie dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 Yeah, I'm not entirely sure how CIPS works.. though, for one thing it's a sector analysis so it's probably mainly keying in on the vort pass which is similar. The CONUS pattern was fairly different with a deep trough in the west kicking waves out. I certainly wouldn't expect a repeat of that but it probably highlights there's some higher end potential in theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 FFW soon for us? I see other CWAs issuing them already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 12z 5km ARW says 6-11pm is the "fun time"... 12z 5km NMM says 9pm to 2am is the "fun time" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 FFW soon for us? I see other CWAs issuing them already Yeah would think so. They pretty much are surrounding us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 There's the flood watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 311 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ028-031-039-040-051>054- 501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-200315- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0002.150621T0000Z-150621T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD-CLARKE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE- MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK... BALLENGER CREEK...ELDERSBURG...WESTMINSTER...REISTERSTOWN... COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...BOWIE...SUITLAND-SILVER HILL... CLINTON...COLLEGE PARK...GREENBELT...LAUREL...CAMP SPRINGS... GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK... ARNOLD...ODENTON...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...BETHESDA...ROCKVILLE... GAITHERSBURG...SILVER SPRING...LISBON...COLUMBIA... ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...WINCHESTER... BERRYVILLE...MADISON...CULPEPER...DALE CITY...MANASSAS... WOODBRIDGE...LAKE RIDGE...MONTCLAIR...RESTON...HERNDON... ANNANDALE...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...MCLEAN...FRANCONIA... ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG... ASHBURN...STERLING...ROMNEY...PAW PAW...MARTINSBURG... CHARLES TOWN...SHEPHERDSTOWN 311 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CARROLL... CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY...FREDERICK...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...NORTHWEST HARFORD...NORTHWEST HOWARD...NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY...PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHEAST HARFORD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA... ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...CLARKE...CULPEPER... EASTERN LOUDOUN...FAIRFAX...FREDERICK...MADISON...NORTHERN FAUQUIER...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK... RAPPAHANNOCK...SOUTHERN FAUQUIER AND WESTERN LOUDOUN. IN NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...BERKELEY...HAMPSHIRE...JEFFERSON AND MORGAN. * FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR COULD OCCUR WITH THE STONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Should we use this thread or make a new thread for the Bill remnants and chance of severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 Should we use this thread or make a new thread for the Bill remnants and chance of severe? might as well just keep it here since we've been discussing it here.. could start another for the next threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Will be in Shenandoah this weekend. Mostly a severe threat east of the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 They kept southern MD out of the flood watch. Last time that happened (earlier this month) we ended up being the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 LWX afternoon disco BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE SFC CIRCULATION AND COMPACT MID LEVELTROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...AWARM AND MUGGY DAY IS ON TAP. THERE ARE NOT ANY DISTINCT FORCINGMECHANISMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THUS AM EXPECTING A MOREDIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO ANY CONVECTION. THE STRONG FORCING WILL BEREACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. QUESTIONS REVOLVEAROUND THE AMOUNT OF INSTBY...BUT SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. SPC HASINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE MAYBE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT GREATEST INSTBY MAY BUILD TO THEEAST. DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HAIL SECONDARY. LOWLEVEL WINDS ALSO BACK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN...AND WILL BEGINTHE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN AREAS AT 2 PM. MAX T FORECAST IS ATOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE BECAUSE CLOUD COVER MAY BE THICK ATTIMES...BUT SUN COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 90 IN THEEAST.&&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILLWILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING ANDCONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THEPERIOD OF HIGHEST IMPACT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TOTHREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLEIN THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHESPER HOUR COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AND LEAD TO FLASHFLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING INTO THEAFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS LEFTOVER UNTIL THEFRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAYSHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Sorry if I'm mistaken. But looking at the radar, I don't see much going on. And the storms that ARE out there look to be going south of DC from the west. EDIT: Are things suppose to start popping later this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Sorry if I'm mistaken. But looking at the radar, I don't see much going on. And the storms that ARE out there look to be going south of DC from the west. We're discussing tomorrow evening's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I don't think this is going to be the last threat to the Mid Atlantic/Northeast in this pattern either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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