Ian Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Allow me to Yoda.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN/SRN PA...CENTRAL/WRN MD...CENTRAL/NRN VA...DC...NRN WV/PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141806Z - 141930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/CLUSTERS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 1930Z. DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 17Z WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PW VALUES OF 1.6 OR GREATER. DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE AVERAGING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER IS AVERAGING 20-30 KTS...STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOUTHEAST-MOVING CLUSTERS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VIRGINIA...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 1930Z. ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1017.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Yoda got his MD wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Hopefully they make it here this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Woo heavy rain. Someone is going to get a nice dumping over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Woo heavy rain. Someone is going to get a nice dumping over the next few days. Maybe some tropical influence later in the week too if 91L makes it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 14, 2015 Author Share Posted June 14, 2015 Woo heavy rain. Someone is going to get a nice dumping over the next few days. Still waiting for a June 2006 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 91/76 at the home station. Jungle airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I'm inside the MRGL risk contour by at least a mile. That should count for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Still waiting for a June 2006 repeat. Wait another 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I miss the wild days of June 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 AT 404 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR POINT OF ROCKS...ORNEAR POOLESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THISSTORM.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...ROCKVILLE...GAITHERSBURG...POOLESVILLE...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...NORTH POTOMAC...MONTGOMERY VILLAGE...BOYDS...REDLAND...WASHINGTONGROVE...LAYTONSVILLE...BARNESVILLE...DICKERSON...TUSCARORA...BEALLSVILLE...CLARKSBURG...DAWSONVILLE...LUCKETTS...DERWOOD ANDDARNESTOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I'm in gaithersburg. Cell not very impressive. Typical heavy downpour, couple strikes, not much wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I'm in gaithersburg. Cell not very impressive. Typical heavy downpour, couple strikes, not much wind Meh. Looks disorganized on radar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 This has been a horrid day for outdoor activities, disgustingly sweaty. These storms are lacking some piece of the puzzle, they know nothing about intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Good call by LWX on that SVR in PG co. Huge signal up top of hail/microburst about to land. Edit: Tops to 50k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 0.06". Yippee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 14, 2015 Author Share Posted June 14, 2015 Boomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 is this probably the main event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Got a sprinkle earlier. Rather have had last night's storm today, especially since the dog woke us up grumbling at the thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Had a good view of the aa/pg co cells as they started going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Just had a decent little storm here in western AA, county. Had a few close lightning strikes and about 20 minutes of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Today's severe weather failure is brought to you by the toaster of failure... hopefully tomorrow we can get the salad shooter of success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 AT 404 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR POINT OF ROCKS...OR NEAR POOLESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROCKVILLE...GAITHERSBURG...POOLESVILLE...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS... NORTH POTOMAC...MONTGOMERY VILLAGE...BOYDS...REDLAND...WASHINGTON GROVE...LAYTONSVILLE...BARNESVILLE...DICKERSON...TUSCARORA... BEALLSVILLE...CLARKSBURG...DAWSONVILLE...LUCKETTS...DERWOOD AND DARNESTOWN. Wow! I hope there were no tragedies from those 30 mph winds a pea size hail. Prayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Both 00z NAM and HIRES NAM blow for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 As I said - we're essentially going to get garden variety storms for all of our slight consecutive days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 As I said - we're essentially going to get garden variety storms for all of our slight consecutive days Possibly, but we have to have #faithinthestorms Locally run models from this evening from LWX look decent enough for tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Early morning action BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 127 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 200 AM EDT * AT 127 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GREENCASTLE TO NEAR FOUNTAINHEAD-ORCHARD HILLS TO NEAR WILSON-CONOCOCHEAGUE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HAGERSTOWN...MUNICIPAL STADIUM...SMITHSBURG...LONG MEADOW... FOUNTAINHEAD-ORCHARD HILLS...WILSON-CONOCOCHEAGUE...MOUNT AETNA... WOLFSVILLE...ROBINWOOD...PARAMOUNT-LONG MEADOW...MOUNT LENA...SAN MAR...FUNKSTOWN...MAUGANSVILLE...HIGHFIELD...CAVETOWN...RINGGOLD... FORT RITCHIE...WARRENTON AND LEITERSBURG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Pity morning MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MD...NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 150602Z - 150800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF MD AND INTO NRN VA AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. DISCUSSION...WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER-70S SFC DEWPOINTS...NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIMITED -- SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY S OF LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION SPREADING ESEWD FROM S-CNTRL PA. THE LWX VWP SAMPLES AROUND 30-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR THAT MAY MAINTAIN OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS. SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO SUSTAINED CONVECTION -- E.G. THAT WHICH IS CROSSING INTO FREDERICK COUNTY MD. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS MODEST NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION CONTINUE. ONLY MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE IAD 00Z RAOB AND ASSOCIATED WEAK DCAPE...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD MITIGATE A GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK. ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/15/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Day 1 0600 OTLK - Marginal severe... 0/0/5 Day 2 0700 OTLK - 15% SLGT Day 3 -- nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Looks like north MD got some nice rains this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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