Superstorm93 Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 Initial advisory at 50 mph later tonight? 000ABNT20 KNHC 152350TWOATTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force ReserveUnit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area oflow pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texascoast indicate that the center has become better defined sinceearlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will beinitiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds withthe low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwesternGulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of thissystem as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardlessof tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likelyalong portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible inextreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system isalso likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding acrossportions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additionalinformation, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued byyour local National Weather Service forecast office.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent&&High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 andWMO header FZNT01 KWBC.$Forecaster Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I wish they would just initiate the stupid advisories already. I'm not looking forward to having to explain the sudden Tropical Storm Warnings later tonight. Obviously it means little from a forecast perspective but it's still going to freak some folks out regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I wish they would just initiate the stupid advisories already. I'm not looking forward to having to explain the sudden Tropical Storm Warnings later tonight. Obviously it means little from a forecast perspective but it's still going to freak some folks out regardless. you and I imagine every single TV station along the coast from Houston to Corpus is in agreement there... would HATE to be mets working at 10 having to plot TS warnings out of nowhere... although from what I've seen in the prepardness side, I don't think we'll have the freakout that we normally would because especially in Houston it appears they've decided to prepare as if it already was a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Pressure already down to 1001.3mb per recon. At this point it would probably be a good idea for the NHC to initiate advisories on a 50 mph/1001mb Tropical Storm just so the Texas coast is prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Pressure already down to 1001.3mb per recon. At this point it would probably be a good idea for the NHC to initiate advisories on a 50 mph/1001mb Tropical Storm just so the Texas coast is prepared. Agreed, needs to be declared asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Recon already heading back? I'm only a student meteorologist, but this doesn't look like the most thorough mission ever.I guess resources are limited in mid-June. Feel bad for whoever has the 11pm shift, because they'll be the ones who have to decide whether or not to pull the trigger on a 45 knot initial advisory and have to hoist TS warnings and watches, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Closed low, 1001mb and 50kt 970mb winds.. Bill should come shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Closed low, 1001mb and 50kt 970mb winds.. Bill should come shortly. at this rate they'll hoist the warnings after it's inland. had another feeder band come through 45min ago. looks like a break in the action for most of the metro for a while. hobby still only sitting at 0.08" on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle-1 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Looks like they're upgrading it. TS Bill, 45 knots, 1005 mb. AL, 02, 2015061600, , BEST, 0, 270N, 940W, 45, 1005, TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Internal NWS chat says they're working on advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The thought had crossed my mind that maybe the NHC were trying to stall long enough to just hand the thing over to the WPC and let them deal with the landphoon stage. The COC looks much consolidated since the previous recon mission, so I guess they got what they came for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 AL, 02, 2015061600, , BEST, 0, 270N, 940W, 45, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 140, 130, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BILL, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, alA12015 to al022015, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 NHC just issued an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 tropical storm warning issued for harris county (houston). current hgx forecast here on south side of houston calls for 15-20mph winds tomorrow with gusts to 25mph. it wouldn't surprise me to see that upped a bit tonight. nhc forecast takes bill to 50kts before landfall near the north end of matagorda bay around mid-morning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Shear has continued to abate...it's now near or below 10kts, according to CIMSS. There's not much time to get it's act together, but this suggests continued and gradual strengthening. Also, it appears Bill has slowed down, and it will probably take at least 12 hours to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Pretty good looking Tropical Storm Bill is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 11:16ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 4Observation Number: 04A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 10:57:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 95°51'W (28.15N 95.85W)C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 58kts (From the ESE at ~ 66.7mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open in the southwestM. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 850mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 10:53:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The thought had crossed my mind that maybe the NHC were trying to stall long enough to just hand the thing over to the WPC and let them deal with the landphoon stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I like how the discussion this morning about that was basically "global models are interesting after landfall" with no details about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Recon finds that Bill is still 50kts and it's moving a bit to the left of the forecast, at least in the short term. Radar shows that it's not strengthening, and in fact, structure may be a bit worse than a few hours prior, as there's little in the way of eyewall formation. This is confirmed by satellite trends, with a more disorganized convection structure, although stronger in the band like feature to the south. CIMSS imagery shows that shear is rather low (<10kts), but convection structure shows that the western half of Bill is struggling, probably from mid level shear in the NW quad entraining dry air. All in all, I expect little change in strength prior to landfall in the next few hours, close or a bit south of Matagorda Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Looks like it's coming in south of Matagorda Bay and is tracking more WNW than NW. Most predictions have it going east of Victoria but may be west. 12z models seem to be initializing it too far north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Deleted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Going to be ashore within the next few minutes. Looks surprisingly nice on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Landfall on Matagorda Island (per radar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 TROPICAL STORM BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0220151155 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015...BILL MAKES LANDFALL ON MATAGORDA ISLAND...The center of Tropical Storm Bill made landfall on MatagordaIsland, Texas at 1145 AM CDT...1645 UTC.During the past hour, a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was reported atboth Palacios, Texas and Port O'Connor, Texas. At 1130 AM CDT, thewater level at Port Lavaca, Texas, was about 3 feet above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Tornado watch hoisted for most of south central TX. This is on the west edge of the guidance and NHC track for sure, and isn't showing any sign of a N turn. It would have to go NNW now from here to go east of Austin, and it looks certain to track west of Victoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I'm actually pretty impressed with the surge and wave action from Bill. Lots of good ground photos on Instagram. On Matagorda Bay: Matagorda Island: Galveston Island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 A rather sharp turn poleward appear to have started. The current weak trough to it's west it's imparting westerly shear and entraining dry air on it's western semicircle. This same trough is weakening the ridge that's steering Bill and will allow to start the baroclinic process the models have been forecasting in a day or two after it moves to a more favorable position to the NE of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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