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June 10-20 Heavy Rain/Storms/Remnants


A-L-E-K

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The boundary looks to remain in the area for the next week with not only bouts of severe, but the flooding threat also increases. Decided to start a new thread for the entire period since singling out a specific timeframe would be fruitless.

 

post-830-0-63772700-1434133557_thumb.gif

 

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
206 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO INCREASE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN AIRMASS WITH A HIGH WATER CONTENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS A FRONT UNDULATES ACROSS THE AREA.
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEARLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOCAL AREAS...BUT ALSO MAY LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

236 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

 

INC073-111-122000-

/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150612T2000Z/

NEWTON IN-JASPER IN-

236 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR EAST

CENTRAL NEWTON AND SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

    

AT 236 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLEGEVILLE...OR NEAR FORESMAN...MOVING EAST AT 25

MPH.

 

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 

         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 

         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 

         LIKELY. 

 

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

  RENSSELAER AND COLLEGEVILLE AROUND 245 PM CDT.

  PLEASANT RIDGE AROUND 255 PM CDT.

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE MOUNT

AYR.

 

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...

 INDIANA I-65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 208 AND 217.
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For tomorrow

 

...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY...
A BAND OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A SERIES OF WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES DRIFTING ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE POOR AND ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR A WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THE HAIL RISK APPEARS
QUITE MARGINAL...BUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY A FEW NEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS INTO EARLY
EVENING.

 

Think the above bolded will be the case the rest of the summer.  Luckily robust diabatic heating isn't usually a problem outside of ongoing precip/clouds this time of year.

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I may be wrong but I think the first tornado warning for this was issued until 5:32 p.m.  

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015  
   
..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/11/15 TORNADO EVENT
 
 
   
MATHERVILLE AREA TORNADO
 
 
RATING: EF-1  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 6 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS  
FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: 0  
 
START DATE: JUN 11 2015  
START TIME: 525 PM CDT  
START LOCATION: 5.3 W MATHERVILLE / MERCER / IL  
START LAT/LON: 41.26597 / -90.70827  
 
END DATE: JUN 11 2015  
END TIME: 537 PM CDT  
END LOCATION: 3.5 N MATHERVILLE / MERCER / IL  
END LAT/LON: 41.31372 / -90.60304  
 
SURVEY SUMMARY: DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH WAS PRIMARILY TO TREES.  
 

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I was spotting in extreme southwest Huntington County this evening watching a storm that had an SPS on it. The cell decided to collapse right over my head. I got a 61 MPH gust on my handheld before I decided to get my hand back in the window. I was sitting in a cemetery, flowers were flying everywhere and my truck was rocking.

 

The resulting damage path from the downburst was about 5 miles long and 5 miles wide.  Lots of trees and limbs down, but surprisingly little structural damage. Pretty interesting that all of the downed trees on the north side of the path were laying to the northeast, to the southeast on the south side, and to the east in the middle.

 

Pretty exciting. I live for this stuff.

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Hi guys

 

I am new to the forum. Anyone able to shed some light on these warm front fails lately? Is it due to lake temps?

 

Welcome!

All that cold dense air over the region's lakes helps slow them down for sure.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0105 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN IL AREA EWD ACROSS

THE MIDWEST INTO THE NY/PA/MD/WV/NRN VA VICINITIES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE

CENTRAL U.S. AND EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

CORRECTED MARGINAL OUTLOOK LINE OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS

...SUMMARY...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE

COUNTRY SUNDAY...INCLUDING A BROAD -- BUT RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY

-- SEVERE RISK LIKELY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A

MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE RISK MAY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON

FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN

LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE OHIO/NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND VICINITY.

...SYNOPSIS...

INCREASINGLY ZONAL/WLY FLOW WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS THE NRN

TIER OF THE CONUS...AS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW REMAINS CONFINED TO

CANADA. FARTHER S...A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING ACROSS

CENTRAL CANADA AND THE ADJACENT N CENTRAL U.S. -- WHILE A LEE TROUGH

RESIDES INVOF THE HIGH PLAINS.

...THE MIDWEST EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING

ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL

HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THIS

REGION. STILL...AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE

COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS RELATIVELY BROAD

ZONE...AIDED BY MODERATE WLY FLOW THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. AS

SUCH...A FEW ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP

PERIODICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSING RISK FOR

LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN

SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND EXPAND IT EWD ACROSS THE

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

 

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Just took a look at the 0z GFS and it did something interesting for early/mid week. It has a Low moving NW in the west GOM and comes on shore around TX/LA monday night. From there it moves due north until it gets to SW MO and then turns NE and eventually due east along I-70 by Wed. There's a widespread 2"+ of rain with a band of 4-7". 18z GFS had something similar but it stayed on a more northeast track through IN into MI.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015061300&time=72&var=APCPI&hour=144

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