RCNYILWX Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 SPC is coordinating a tornado watch in the LOT, ILX, AND DVN CWAs. Edit: Maybe not. I'll keep everyone posted. We're gonna sit on it for a bit and monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 SPC is coordinating a tornado watch in the LOT, ILX, AND DVN CWAs. please be city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 20Z HRRR has what looks like a bowing line running into Chicago with a meso low near Rockford in the early morning hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Some interesting features starting to show up in some of the activity around the IA/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Possible tornado near Reynolds, IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 And up pops a tornado watch for a good chunk of N Il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0194 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 713 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...NORTHERN IL...EXTREME SOUTHERN WI CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 112312Z - 120500Z SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LATE-DAY 1-MIN GOES-14 SRSO IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZING AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER. THIS LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH AN ENHANCING POOL OF RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HI RES MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 12Z ARW/NMMB AND 22Z HRRR FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE S/SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY. THE LATEST GOES-SOUNDER IMAGERY ALREADY DEPICTS A POOL OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES. MEANWHILE...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. THEREFORE...SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES THROUGH LATE EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SEEN SHOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. ORRISON ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...MKX... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC... LAT...LON 42828976 42718832 42178750 41168769 40578857 40218979 39869119 39559266 39269423 39159500 39229552 39579572 40519526 41599483 42169372 42599189 ! http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0194&yr=2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 easy come, easy go MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0753 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL ILCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 288...VALID 120053Z - 120200ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 288 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED AND THE WATCH WILLBE CANCELED EARLY.DISCUSSION...BASED ON 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND DISRUPTIVEINTERACTIONS BETWEEN WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS AND PERIPHERALCONVECTION...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO HAVEDIMINISHED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. AS SUCH...THE WATCH WILL BECANCELED EARLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Zzzzz Haha. Was thinking the same thing. More action last night with no watch. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 723 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0531 PM TORNADO 2 SSE REYNOLDS 41.31N 90.66W 06/11/2015 MERCER IL LAW ENFORCEMENT TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN 1 MILE SOUTH OF 170TH AVE. RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE. PRELIMINARY REPORT...SURVEY TEAM WILL INVESTIGATE TOMORROW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 i guess the overnight heavy rain threat remains for the I80 corridor away from the lake EDIT: 57 at my place right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 A bust today would allow the wf to advance north and not be hampered by convection tonig in Michigan, correct? Or am I just being optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 It wasn't looking real good, but heavy storms have recently blown up and moved into Cedar Rapids. The heavy stuff is building back a few counties so we could really get some heavy rain. It's already pouring buckets and it just started. I had 0.52" before this started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 A bust today would allow the wf to advance north and not be hampered by convection tonig in Michigan, correct? Not necessarily. There are a ton of different things occurring at all levels of the atmosphere that impact frontal progression and placement, not just convective development. Or am I just being optimistic. Optimistic may not be the word, but yeah, something like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 A bust today would allow the wf to advance north and not be hampered by convection tonig in Michigan, correct? Or am I just being optimistic. nascent MCS (gonna see a nice comma as mentioned by gilbert earlier) is getting together in Iowa, looks to me like it will track east into DVN's CWA then turn right into the better instability/llj support...so there might not be much convection in Michigan but there will be a decaying MCS tracking across Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 nascent MCS (gonna see a nice comma as mentioned by gilbert earlier) is getting together in Iowa, looks to me like it will track east into DVN's CWA then turn right into the better instability/llj support...so there might not be much convection in Michigan but there will be a decaying MCS tracking across Indiana Are you talking about the MCS that is on top of me and hawkeye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 It wasn't looking real good, but heavy storms have recently blown up and moved into Cedar Rapids. The heavy stuff is building back a few counties so we could really get some heavy rain. It's already pouring buckets and it just started. I had 0.52" before this started. was just about to post about you, looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 Are you talking about the MCS that is on top of me and hawkeye? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 yep That's what I thought. Might get interesting for you later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 That's what I thought. Might get interesting for you later on. I suspect it will follow the instability gradient and turn right well south of me but i should still see some nice rains/embedded thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Followed weak sup that popped right up over top of us earlier. Had some weak rotation pretty close to the surface. Even a nice RFD cut, but it never produced. My dumb ass left it in manual focus so I didn't get squat for pics. Good thing it didn't put down a tornado or I would be in tears right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 nascent MCS (gonna see a nice comma as mentioned by gilbert earlier) is getting together in Iowa, looks to me like it will track east into DVN's CWA then turn right into the better instability/llj support...so there might not be much convection in Michigan but there will be a decaying MCS tracking across IndianaI see. So that could be good or bad considering how quickly it fizzles. Outflow boundaries, however convective crap in the morning doesn't help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Not necessarily. There are a ton of different things occurring at all levels of the atmosphere that impact frontal progression and placement, not just convective development. Optimistic may not be the word, but yeah, something like that... Fair enough. My worry was the convection late night on the wf tonight. If there isn't a whole lot I feel a bit better about tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Followed weak sup that popped right up over top of us earlier. Had some weak rotation pretty close to the surface. Even a nice RFD cut, but it never produced. My dumb ass left it in manual focus so I didn't get squat for pics. Good thing it didn't put down a tornado or I would be in tears right now lol. So close, nice pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Just picked up about 2 inches of rain in 35 minutes, still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Just picked up about 2 inches of rain in 35 minutes, still going. You're gonna be over 3" for the day soon it looks like. Area of storms in eastern Iowa trying to surge this way. This area's pretty worked over I think so don't think they'll do too well as they approach the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2015 Author Share Posted June 12, 2015 Just picked up about 2 inches of rain in 35 minutes, still going. noice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Not surprised by the shift south in the heavy rain. Been getting some good downpours since 8:30. Down to 55° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2015 Share Posted June 12, 2015 Short little time lapse of tonight's very short backyard chase. Nothing special, just two weak sups. First one is the one that popped very close to here. The other one was the embedded supercell that produced the tor south of the QC about an hour before it's seen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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