andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 18z 12 km/4 km still impressive tomorrow in IA (moderate/pockets of strong instability, adequate deep layer shear and very impressive low level wind fields). A bit leery of the GFS/Euro not really tagging along, but I would think an upgrade to enhanced is possible in the D1 outlook if 00z guidance continues to hold and the leftover convection situation becomes more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 18z 12 km/4 km still impressive tomorrow in IA (moderate/pockets of strong instability, adequate deep layer shear and very impressive low level wind fields). A bit leery of the GFS/Euro not really tagging along, but I would think an upgrade to enhanced is possible in the D1 outlook if 00z guidance continues to hold and the leftover convection situation becomes more confident. One thing about the Euro, it is grossly underdoing the instability currently out there compared to 6hr forecast off the 12z run. I think they finally tinkered enough with the Euro to break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 clouds starting to tower to the north here south of !-80. I'm a couple blocks from KLOT edit- just moved here from the city, i'm not south of 80 but it feels like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 MD out. 40% chance of a watch. Basically a "we have no idea what's gonna happen" type of forecast which seems like all forecasts for NWOH. An agitated CU field has formed in SW Michigan / NW IN / NE IL, but no signs of imminent t'storm development at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 One thing about the Euro, it is grossly underdoing the instability currently out there compared to 6hr forecast off the 12z run. I think they finally tinkered enough with the Euro to break it. Yeah once again the NAM won in the instability department here. GFS usually is too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Yeah once again the NAM won in the instability department here. GFS usually is too low Yeah the NAM has been solid this year with the instability, more so than the GFS/Euro combo. Both keep underdoing the lapse rates and in the GFS's case water loading the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 CU field is looking healthy, hopefully within the next two hours this gets rolling Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the "cold" front is now along the I-94 corridor. So any severe weather potential here is over (although the Ohio Border counties are still in the game). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Got about 1" of rain in 45 minutes from the earlier storm, plus a tenth or so from heavy rain showers before that. Lots of stuff popping up area wide now. I thoroughly enjoyed today, especially the fact that in between the storms, we weren't socked in stratus/convective debris and instead had sunshine (and also that we still overachieved with our highs). I wasn't expecting anything here from the cold front, so I can't say I'm surprised or disappointed about the lack of action along it (locally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Agitated to my S/SE. Going to be another swing and miss for DKB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Agitated to my S/SE. Going to be another swing and miss for DKB. You can definitely see there's still at least a modest cap in place via the altocumulus/altostratus field. The towers in that pic are clearly struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Towers popping now all around locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Cell exploded right over the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Looks like things are initiating around Oswego/yorkville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 ...aaannnd we're off, right over Alek's head: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSPECIAL MARINE WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL500 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WILMETTE HARBOR HARBOR TO CALUMET HARBOR... OPEN WATERS FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY OUT TO MID LAKE...* UNTIL 600 PM CDT* AT 459 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...LOCATED 38 NM SOUTH OF WINTHROP HARBOR...MOVING EAST AT 25 KNOTS. HAZARD...WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER AND SMALL HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY OPEN WATERS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...AS THIS THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE WATER...BOATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTYWINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHOREUNTIL THE STORM PASSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Continuous rumbles to my west Watching close range C to G light show while in full sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 A thunderstorm has developed in the past few minutes near downtown Chicago. It tracked east a bit as the lake breeze tracked SW. Note: 67dBz max reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 Hrrr nailed it with initiation overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Hrrr nailed it with initiation overhead 16z also had a nice cell in northern wilco...nailed that 2 from the looks of it....the cell to my west is really building overhead now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Regarding tomorrow, pretty decent forecast sounding around Rockford in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Interesting snippet from DMX regarding tomorrow (I agree with it): THERE COULD ALSO VERY WELL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FARTHER SOUTHALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW/TRIPLE POINT. NAM/GFS MLCAPES AREUNCAPPED WITH A NOTED LOBE OF EXTREME 0-1KM SHEAR AND SRH JUST AHEADLEADING TO AN ELEVATED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTHTOWARD THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY LOWER LCLS. FEEL THE LOCALIZEDPOTENTIAL IS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE SPC DAY 2OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Putman County cell looks nice. Tops are at least 40,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Agitated to my S/SE. Going to be another swing and miss for DKB. That's exactly what it looked like here a short while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 That's exactly what it looked like here a short while ago. You heading west tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 60kft storm south of Princeton IL now. Some weak rotation in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 You heading west tomorrow? Gotta work till 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2015 Author Share Posted June 10, 2015 67 on the bank clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 You heading west tomorrow?Warm front play is what I'm watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Warm front play is what I'm watching. Really the whole setup is going to be a warm front play of sorts, just have the augmentation of the triple point in IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Backside view of the gilbertfly Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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