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June 10-20 Heavy Rain/Storms/Remnants


A-L-E-K

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18z 12 km/4 km still impressive tomorrow in IA (moderate/pockets of strong instability, adequate deep layer shear and very impressive low level wind fields). A bit leery of the GFS/Euro not really tagging along, but I would think an upgrade to enhanced is possible in the D1 outlook if 00z guidance continues to hold and the leftover convection situation becomes more confident.

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18z 12 km/4 km still impressive tomorrow in IA (moderate/pockets of strong instability, adequate deep layer shear and very impressive low level wind fields). A bit leery of the GFS/Euro not really tagging along, but I would think an upgrade to enhanced is possible in the D1 outlook if 00z guidance continues to hold and the leftover convection situation becomes more confident.

One thing about the Euro, it is grossly underdoing the instability currently out there compared to 6hr forecast off the 12z run. I think they finally tinkered enough with the Euro to break it.

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MD out. 40% chance of a watch. Basically a "we have no idea what's gonna happen" type of forecast which seems like all forecasts for NWOH.

 

An agitated CU field has formed in SW Michigan / NW IN / NE IL, but no signs of imminent t'storm development at this time.

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Yeah once again the NAM won in the instability department here. GFS usually is too low

Yeah the NAM has been solid this year with the instability, more so than the GFS/Euro combo. Both keep underdoing the lapse rates and in the GFS's case water loading the soundings.

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Got about 1" of rain in 45 minutes from the earlier storm, plus a tenth or so from heavy rain showers before that.

Lots of stuff popping up area wide now.

 

I thoroughly enjoyed today, especially the fact that in between the storms, we weren't socked in stratus/convective debris and instead had sunshine (and also that we still overachieved with our highs).

 

I wasn't expecting anything here from the cold front, so I can't say I'm surprised or disappointed about the lack of action along it (locally).

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...aaannnd we're off, right over Alek's head:

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
500 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO  HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WILMETTE HARBOR HARBOR TO CALUMET HARBOR...
  OPEN WATERS FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY OUT TO MID
  LAKE...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 459 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...LOCATED 38 NM SOUTH OF
  WINTHROP HARBOR...MOVING EAST AT 25 KNOTS.

  HAZARD...WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER AND SMALL HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
           SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE WATER...BOATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
 

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Interesting snippet from DMX regarding tomorrow (I agree with it):

 

THERE COULD ALSO VERY WELL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FARTHER SOUTH

ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW/TRIPLE POINT. NAM/GFS MLCAPES ARE
UNCAPPED WITH A NOTED LOBE OF EXTREME 0-1KM SHEAR AND SRH JUST AHEAD
LEADING TO AN ELEVATED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH
TOWARD THE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY LOWER LCLS. FEEL THE LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL IS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK.
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