snowlover2 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 New day 2 has a slight risk for the SE 2/3 of IL,most of IN, SW half of OH and N 1/3 of KY. 0z Euro looks similar to the GFS/NAM with Bill remnants. Most agreement with this so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Updated 7 day QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 NHC track at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suckzone Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Looks like Thursday could be a decent severe weather day. It all depends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yep, the center of the track for remnants of Bill is expected to be near Terre Haute at 1 a.m. Sat. This will only worsen the flooding here in the Heartland. It will increase shear and helicity. And with a potential svr system showing up for early next week it will certainly be an active period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Over/Under at 8.5 inch 24 total somewhere in LOT? 4.45 in Kane County.....not even close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 12z Ukie gets down to 1000mb. Been consistent showing this or a bit stronger. Makes you wonder if it's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Here is the 00Z MPAS graphics for those that are interested in experimental models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 12z Euro now showing Bill remnants getting down to 1000mb like Ukie. Currently at hour 96 it's over St. Louis around 1006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 12z Euro at 120 shows 1002 over central PA. I-70 runner it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 12z Euro at 120 shows 1002 over central PA. I-70 runner it appears. The in-between increments show it passing over IND and then near/just north of CMH. Usually that would be slamma jamma time here in terms of heavy rain but not as much precip north of the low as you'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Updated 7 day QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 After being on the northern end on the 00z run and then going south, the 18z HWRF went back north. Track changes aside, it continues to suggest a band of 6-8" with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 After being on the northern end on the 00z run and then going south, the 18z HWRF went back north. Track changes aside, it continues to suggest a band of 6-8" with locally higher amounts. yea even GFS/NAM make it up to I-72 in IL now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like Bill was a bit towards the western side of NHC guidance FWIW at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 00z GGEM farther north with the slug of moisture from Bill. Besides the actual track, part of this is going to depend on smaller scale details, like how much of an enhanced band develops on the N/W side. Sort of a messy setup with the other system in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 00z GGEM farther north with the slug of moisture from Bill. Besides the actual track, part of this is going to depend on smaller scale details, like how much of an enhanced band develops on the N/W side. Sort of a messy setup with the other system in the area. Noticed both NAM and GFS initialized weaker than what it actually is. Wonder if that explains why they are weaker than Euro/Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Noticed both NAM and GFS initialized weaker than what it actually is. Wonder if that explains why they are weaker than Euro/Ukie? 00z UKMET initialized weaker too. I think it's tough for the models to handle the exact pressure since it's on such a small scale. The specialized tropical models might do better in that regard but that's no guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 00z HWRF jumped north, but it sorta rains itself out before getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Updated month to date precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Wabash River in moderate flood at LAF. Besides being wet here, the rain N/E has fallen in a pretty "good" spot to raise the river level dramatically. We'd be in big trouble if Bill's remnants come farther north (or we get trained unexpectedly in the next day or two), but models seem to want to keep the heaviest rain farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Wabash River in moderate flood at LAF. Besides being wet here, the rain N/E has fallen in a pretty "good" spot to raise the river level dramatically. We'd be in big trouble if Bill's remnants come farther north (or we get trained unexpectedly in the next day or two), but models seem to want to keep the heaviest rain farther south. It's moving up, as it's now at 22.41 feet (2:00pm ob). That'd be good for the 28th highest crest on the Wabash at the LAF gauge. Though I guess the (p)'s below mean subject to further review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 It's moving up, as it's now at 22.41 feet (2:00pm ob). That'd be good for the 28th highest crest on the Wabash at the LAF gauge. Though I guess the (p)'s below mean subject to further review. wabash crests.png Those top crests are crazy...and to read the impacts about what happens at those levels. Can never say never as far as something like that happening again in the future but the changes that have been done over the years make an insane crest less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Those top crests are crazy...and to read the impacts about what happens at those levels. Can never say never as far as something like that happening again in the future but the changes that have been done over the years make an insane crest less likely. Yeah, these would be something to see. 32.1 Massive flooding in progress affecting extensive commercial...residential and agricultural areas. Float of river monitoring equipment in well house approaching the shelf. Warning...river level may be incorrect. Get confirmation from March 1913 high water mark on RR Bridge over South River Road. Wire weight gage on Brown Street Bridge abutment likley inacessible. Note high water mark for historic reasons.32 Water level approaches a record flood. Only new US 231, Harrison St and Sagamore Pky connect Lafayette and W. Lafayette. In W. Lafayette entire Levee Plaza and nearby business district are underwater. This includes the area south and west of State St along River Rd. Water is nearing the second floor in Williamsburg Apt. In Lafayette, water is several feet deep in commercial and industrial areas along Canal and Sycamore St. Flood waters are up to 4th St., less than 2 blocks for the courthouse. 30 Water level is approaching a record flood in Lafayette and West Lafayette. Levee Plaza and nearby businesses in West Lafayette is underwater. In Lafayette...water is up to 4th Street. Business and industry along Canal Street underwater. Large business area in West Lafayette flood, including Levee Plaza, lower levels of Hilton Garden Inn and Wabash Landing Apts. Water begins to flow over State and Brown Streets. Water is several feet deep in Williamsburg Apartments. In Lafayette, 1st Street floods. 28 Major flooding becomes a disaster. In West Lafayette, businesses in Levee Plaza and along State and Wood streets begin to flood. Flooding and possible evacuations in Williamsburg Apartments. West Lafayette Wastewater Treatment Plant floods. In Lafayette, industrial and commercial flooding expands along Canal and Sycamore Streets. Canal and Sycamore Streets are nearly impassable. Water is several feet deep in many rural areas of Tippecanoe County. Access to low areas is possible by boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Bill's circulation easy to pick out on the Dallas radar right now...and Dallas is gusting to around 40 mph...not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Saturday could be kind of an interesting day in the sense that the remnants of Bill will be in the region along with the possibility of severe storms farther north closer to the frontal boundary. Both of those in the subforum on the same day...something that probably doesn't happen very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 It's moving up, as it's now at 22.41 feet (2:00pm ob). That'd be good for the 28th highest crest on the Wabash at the LAF gauge. Though I guess the (p)'s below mean subject to further review. wabash crests.png 22.5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Several rounds of heavy showers here at Fortville today. One at dawn, the other two this afternoon, interspersed with hazy sun at times. East central IN is also beginning to get in on the heavier rains in addition to upstream in the upper Wabash basin. Will indeed be interesting to see what the rainfall totals will be for this week come next Monday. Very little wind. Rain has come straight down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Death band around here on the 18z 4km NAM This type of thing happening somewhere in the area is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Updated month to date precip prcp_mpe_m2d_tot.png That low-balled this area big time. Must not be too accurate outside of sensor sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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