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June 10-20 Heavy Rain/Storms/Remnants


A-L-E-K

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00z NAM/4 km doesn't look to be backing off much for tomorrow. Some really impressive hodographs showing up around 21z E of Georgian Bay. The lack of appreciable convection today so far will likely help tomorrow and there does look to be capping early on in the day to prevent premature initiation.

Edit: NAM also looking quite interesting in IA/vicinity on Thursday again. 4 km looks like it has a ton of junk through the morning though.

Not much but wilderness east of Georgian

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I got word of the severe potential in Ontario today from the news, some saying isolated tornadoes are possible. Doesn't look like MBY is going to get any of course, that's the norm! I think there will be a tornado somewhere, how strong and where is going to determine how June 10, 2015 is remembered here. I'll be watching in case something crazy happens as this is about the time of year for that. I've been tuned-out weather wise for quite a long while and I should write a little something about my thoughts in the complaint thread.

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Latest Hi-Res models suggest main threat today (if anything) should mainly be in Indiana, between developing morning convection limiting daytime heating to an extent further NE and moisture advection on past runs probably being somewhat overdone.

 

Ultimately though, the capping seems hard to overcome everywhere later today as far as widespread activity.

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I had an alright storm this morning, it was constant rolling thunder from a line moving quickly. Some standard CC lightning. I think I may be more into it today; temperatures were boosted from 21-22ºC to 27ºC here, got put under a patchwork tornado watch (no thunderstorm watches?), and the sun came out again. I bet money there is wind damage from the line in cottage country, there always is something even the morning round.

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Looks like things are still primed to go here. Just had a morning storm roll through, but north of I-80 looks pretty clear at this point. Atmosphere looks like it will be able to have 3-6 hours of destabilization before storms spark up again. 

 

Already back up to 77/68 at KUSE (Wauseon). 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

1151 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015  

   

UPDATE  

 

1133 AM CDT  

 

MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE AREA. WHILE THE CLOUDS  

AND MOISTURE INITIALLY SLOWED THE WARMING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE  

80...THE PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND AIDED  

IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  

THIS FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR DAVENPORT  

(KDVN)...THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FREEPORT (KFEP) TO NEAR RACINE WI  

(KRAC). THE THERMAL RIDGE IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE  

RATES ARE SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN THIS WARMER AIR DOWN. HEAT INDEX  

READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...THE HIGHEST OF THE YEAR  

SO FAR...SO CONTINUE TO TAKE CAUTION AS IT IS MUGGIER THAN IT HAS  

BEEN THIS FAR IN 2015. NO EVIDENCE OF ANY LAKE BREEZE ON TMDW  

RADAR CONSISTENT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL HOLDING ABOVE 15 KT  

FROM THE SW. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS MUCH  

OF THE AREA...THOUGH WE ARE STILL CAPPED PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS. HI  

RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTIVE  

TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED LATER TODAY WITH CAPE VALUES  

APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE FOCUS DOES CONTINUE TO BE ALONG AND  

SOUTH OF I-80 AFTER 4 PM...WITH A NARROW WINDOW FARTHER NORTH  

TOWARDS I-88 AFTER 3 PM. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THAT  

THIS AXIS MAY EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE  

FRONT CURRENTLY IS NOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WEAK SE  

ORIENTED STORM MOTION VECTORS IS A CONCERN...WITH STRONG TO  

SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL THE ADDITIONAL MAIN HAZARDS  

GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 KT.  

 

KMD  

 

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Still appear on track for good storms this afternoon near and south of the front in IA, IL and IN. Looking at a subtle speed max over northern IA that's caused an increase in ACCAS over eastern IA. Once the wave interacts with the frontal zone, also aided by convergence, should see storms fire. RAP and HRRR seem to be responding to this with initiation between 20-21z near the I-88 corridor.

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That, or a propagating MCS tomorrow night.

Sounds like an initial area of storms in N IL moving east and then more development farther west.

 

 

 

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

SPECIFICS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THURSDAY REMAIN

UNCLEAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY NOT BE

ESPECIALLY STEEP...DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE

700-500 MB LAYER. INHIBITION MAY BE STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAR

NORTH/EAST AS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AT LEAST INITIALLY

...THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING ACROSS MUCH OF

NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE SOME STRENGTHENING

OCCURS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. A BELT OF

30-50 KT WESTERLY MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO

CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE

MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...INCLUDING

AREAS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.

WITH MIXED LAYER AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF

1000-2000+ J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE POST

FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO BE

SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INCLUDE

ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AND SEVERAL EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS.

THERE APPEARS A SIGNAL IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT AN INITIAL AREA

OF FORCING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING/ORGANIZING CONVECTION

ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY LATE

AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES

REGION. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...CONVECTION MAY INITIATE AND BECOME

FOCUSED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE MID

MISSOURI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS

KANSAS...AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO

THURSDAY EVENING. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL

WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO

POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SURFACE LOW.

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Tornado warned storm E of Georgian Bay in the Burk's Falls area is near warm front, with accordingly enhanced low level shear.

Thoughts on storm initiation farther southwest? Across SW Ont? Shear/cape/supercell comp look good but some people are calling a bust already?!?

Sent from my SGH-I747M using Tapatalk

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Thoughts on storm initiation farther southwest? Across SW Ont? Shear/cape/supercell comp look good but some people are calling a bust already?!?

Sent from my SGH-I747M

 

Those people aren't very smart, there will be initiation later on with the shortwave trough approaching from the west. Main question is how strong low level directional shear will be. Surface winds may tend to veer later on although it's possible that there might be mesoscale boundaries leftover from the previous convection that may lead to enhanced tornado potential (and also the synoptic warm front over east-central ON).

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Those people aren't very smart, there will be initiation later on with the shortwave trough approaching from the west. Main question is how strong low level directional shear will be. Surface winds may tend to veer later on although it's possible that there might be mesoscale boundaries leftover from the previous convection that may lead to enhanced tornado potential (and also the synoptic warm front over east-central ON).

Thank you for clearing that up..

I thought it was premature! :)

Sent from my SGH-I747M using Tapatalk

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