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June 10-20 Heavy Rain/Storms/Remnants


A-L-E-K

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

1128 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

1125 AM FLASH FLOOD PEOTONE 41.33N 87.80W  

06/15/2015 WILL IL CO-OP OBSERVER  

 

1.26 INCHES BETWEEN 1058 AM AND 1125 AM WITH 1 INCH  

FALLING IN 14 MINUTES. STREETS ARE FLOODED ON THE  

OUTSKIRTS OF TOWN.  

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heavy showers...endor climo in full effect today

 

 

 

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN THIS MESSY
WEATHER PATTERN. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS. VISIBILITIES IN THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD EASILY
FALL UNDER A MILE FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FOLLOWING THE CURRENT AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HOURS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
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Guest ovweather

Send some of that rain south, please! Short-term drought conditions have set in down here. Only 1.50" total of rain in my backyard since late April. Amazing how fast it went from being super-wet to super-dry. The southeast ridge is a killer right now.

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If this growing cluster of storms with torrential rainfall holds together and starts to train over the Detroit metro area in the next hour or two, we may have some serious flash flood problems after yesterday. There already is a flash flood watch in anticipation of 1-3" of rain today with potentially higher amounts in spots.

 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

1259 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015  

   

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  

 

1259 PM CDT  

 

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS REMARKABLY FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH  

VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS ALLOWING  

FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES (TROPICAL-LIKE) TO DOMINATE. THE RESULT THIS  

MORNING HAS ALREADY BEEN THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME RAIN RATES...IN  

SOME CASES OVER AN INCH IN LESS THAN 20 MINUTES. ATMOSPHERE WILL  

CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SO  

CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL  

AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE EFFICIENCY OF  

RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES...ANY TRAINING OF  

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN A SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD  

SITUATION DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  

EVENING. THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS WOULD BE AREAS THAT HAVE  

ALREADY SEEN FLOODING IN RECENT DAYS WHERE THE GROUND CAN TAKE NO  

MORE WATER AND ALSO IN URBANIZED AREAS THAT CAN NEVER TOLERATE  

EXTREME RAINFALL RATES.  

 

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF  

FILTERED SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S  

WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MODIFYING ILX'S MORNING  

SOUDNINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBS YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG  

NOW WITH NO REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PWATS NEARING 2  

INCHES. AREA VWPS SHOW DEEP LAYER OF 30-40KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY  

WINDS FROM 850-500MB...WHICH IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER  

SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30KT. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY WEAK  

LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WE  

HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME TRANSIENT OUTFLOW DOMINANT HP SUPERCELL-ISH  

CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WITH SLOWLY BUILDING INSTABILITY...THE THREAT  

DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WET MICROBURSTS AND SMALL BOWING  

SEGMENTS TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS  

AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY THIS EVENING.  

 

ONE SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENT TRACKED ACROSS LEE...SOUTHERN  

DEKALB/KANE COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS LAID OUT AN EAST-WEST  

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF I-80. SHOULD THIS OUTFLOW OR ANY  

OTHER BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THE  

THREAT OF TRAINING AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL  

GROW.  

 

NOTE TO WSR-88D USERS: THE VERY HIGH EFFICIENCY OF RAIN IN THE  

STORMS AND LACK OF HAIL IS RESULTING IN LEGACY PRECIPITATION  

ESTIMATES ON THE RADAR TO BE RUNNING TOO LOW. USE SUCH PRODUCTS WITH  

CAUTION...WE ARE UTILIZING THE DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES WHICH HAVE  

BEEN PERFORMING MUCH BETTER IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  

 

IZZI  

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