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June 10-20 Heavy Rain/Storms/Remnants


A-L-E-K

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This last week has been really incredible as far as busts go. Hardly any severe weather has occurred under the last 3 watches for this area. Heck today only featured one severe storm in NW Ohio and that was in a high probability watch box. Kind of underwhelming

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

FLASH FLOOD WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  

610 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  

 

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  

EASTERN MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  

CENTRAL MENARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  

NORTHERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  

SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  

MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  

NORTHERN DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  

 

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT MONDAY  

 

* AT 608 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING  

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.  

RADAR HAS ESTIMATED 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER MOST  

OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. MORE HEAVY  

RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  

 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  

BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...MASON CITY...LE ROY...HEYWORTH...  

PETERSBURG...LEXINGTON...HUDSON...ATLANTA...DELAVAN...MINIER...  

DANVERS...COLFAX...DOWNS...HOPEDALE...MCLEAN...GREENVIEW...GREEN  

VALLEY...SAN JOSE AND STANFORD.  

 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  

INTERSTATE 155 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 22.  

INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 6.  

INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 129...AND BETWEEN MILE  

MARKERS 135 AND 182.  

INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 156.  

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  

625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0550 PM FLASH FLOOD W MCLEAN 40.32N 89.17W  

06/14/2015 MCLEAN IL NWS EMPLOYEE  

 

WATER OVER ROAD WEST OF MCLEAN ON US 136 EASTBOUND LANE  

 

0545 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E HEYWORTH 40.31N 88.96W  

06/14/2015 M3.78 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS  

 

RAIN FELL IN PAST 60 MINUTES  

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      W MCLEAN                40.32N 89.17W   
06/14/2015                   MCLEAN             IL   NWS EMPLOYEE      
  
            WATER OVER ROAD WEST OF MCLEAN ON US 136 EASTBOUND LANE  
  
0545 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E HEYWORTH            40.31N 88.96W   
06/14/2015  M3.78 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   COCORAHS          
  
            RAIN FELL IN PAST 60 MINUTES  

That's a seriously insane rainfall rate.

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18z GFDL has some entertainment...system deepens through the 990s and into the 980s as it moves through the area very quickly (IL to eastern Lake Erie in 12 hours).  Would probably be a strong/damaging wind threat s/e of the low especially if any breaks of sun, a la Ike.  I'm not sure I'd trust the GFDL with a transitioning system though. 

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18z GFDL has some entertainment...system deepens through the 990s and into the 980s as it moves through the area very quickly (IL to eastern Lake Erie in 12 hours).  Would probably be a strong/damaging wind threat s/e of the low especially if any breaks of sun, a la Ike.  I'm not sure I'd trust the GFDL with a transitioning system though. 

0.0000000000001% chance of that happening.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                ..REMARKS..    0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      W MCLEAN                40.32N 89.17W   06/14/2015                   MCLEAN             IL   NWS EMPLOYEE                    WATER OVER ROAD WEST OF MCLEAN ON US 136 EASTBOUND LANE    0545 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E HEYWORTH            40.31N 88.96W   06/14/2015  M3.78 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   COCORAHS                        RAIN FELL IN PAST 60 MINUTES  

PW value 1.92 on ILX 0z sounding

 

ILX radar underestimating precip 

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This last week has been really incredible as far as busts go. Hardly any severe weather has occurred under the last 3 watches for this area. Heck today only featured one severe storm in NW Ohio and that was in a high probability watch box. Kind of underwhelming

Sent from my iPhone

 

That's what you get with the lack of heat in a moisture-laden air mass (not to mention coming off a cold Winter and cool-ish Spring downwind of the lakes).

 

For those who don't want the heat but want severe weather, this entire event is a perfect example that shows one can't have their cake and eat it too.

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Definitely thinking tonight will be mostly quiet up this way. Heavy rain wording in the forecast for tomorrow though. Not enough destabilization with all the clouds to get into the severe weather this far north, so far...

 

Several micro cells moving ENE across northern IL currently.

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Maybe it's just me but it seems like there's been a bit of a tendency to shift the landfall farther down the Texas coast.  Most of these runs are old but the BAM suite is 00z and those members take more of a western track in Texas.

 

 

post-14-0-92521700-1434338397_thumb.png

 

 

System is still quite disorganized so any center relocations could alter things.  Winds are already strong enough so seems like a good chance this will get named tomorrow as more consolidation occurs.

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lol Powerball. Been a scorcher for many in the region the past 7-8 days.

 

attachicon.giftav7dydev.png

 

Anyways, the typically awful 84 hour total QPF from the 0z NAM. Very much FWIW...

 

attachicon.giflol nam.gif

Chicago WX, the temp map posted for us up here seems to be the result of one 90°+ day, not sure about points south and east.  What would be interesting to see if its available is the departure from normal for day time highs and night time lows.

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Maybe it's just me but it seems like there's been a bit of a tendency to shift the landfall farther down the Texas coast.  Most of these runs are old but the BAM suite is 00z and those members take more of a western track in Texas.

 

 

attachicon.gifUntitled.png

 

 

System is still quite disorganized so any center relocations could alter things.  Winds are already strong enough so seems like a good chance this will get named tomorrow as more consolidation occurs.

Further down the coast into Texas would probably lead to a further north track once it rounds the bend.

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Chicago WX, the temp map posted for us up here seems to be the result of one 90°+ day, not sure about points south and east.  What would be interesting to see if its available is the departure from normal for day time highs and night time lows.

 

Ask, and ye shall receive.

 

 

 

It's been pretty warm/hot for the southern 1/2 of the sub-forum. And wet of course, for some/many.

 

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Ask, and ye shall receive.

 

attachicon.giftmax7dydev.png

 

attachicon.giftmin7dydev.png

 

It's been pretty warm/hot for the southern 1/2 of the sub-forum. And wet of course, for some/many.

 

attachicon.gifprecip7dydev.png

 

Interesting indeed.  At MSP we had a high temp of 92° on 6/9 yet our daily high temp was + or - 1° from normal, but our mean temp was looks like it was around +2.  Much warmer at night.

 

Hint...if any one wants to know how I get ° (degree symbol) simply hold down the alt key and type in 0176.

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Further down the coast into Texas would probably lead to a further north track once it rounds the bend.

Not if you believe the 0z GFS. 0z NAM made landfall around Houston and at the end of the run goes northeast from St. Louis to Toledo-ish maybe  bit north of Toledo. 0z GFS made landfall just north of Brownsville and by hour 132 is moving east from St. Louis along I-70 to Indy.

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00z GGEM...Christ almighty.  Still with big amounts, but it does it a bit differently/different area than 12z as the remnant system is less progressive.

 

My best guess is that this rain shield will come out more or less in piece.  Where it goes will not be decided by where it comes ashore, but rather how far south the surface high over the great lakes, upper Mississippi Valley drops south. My current thinking is from St Lious to along the I 70 area. 

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My best guess is that this rain shield will come out more or less in piece.  Where it goes will not be decided by where it comes ashore, but rather how far south the surface high over the great lakes, upper Mississippi Valley drops south. My current thinking is from St Lious to along the I 70 area. 

 

Case in point.  24 to 36 hrs ago the GFS and Euro had a severe event for Minnesota for Friday.  Now not so much as the best cape values stay to our west and then drop south and east.  The eastern winds from that suface high over the lakes will drive things to the south.  In addition, I highly doubt that here in MSP we will see more than a half inch of rainfall, if that

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It's interesting how many models show this system staying relatively steady if not intensifying after landfall.  Atmospheric conditions would seem supportive and again, the wet soil won't hurt.

 

Joe Bastardi said on his free Satruday upadate said that this system will be coming in weak as far as gulf systems go, and conditions would allow it to come ashore without much weakening (sp).  I'm not a fan of Joe B, but it seems he might have the right idea.

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