nwohweather Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 This last week has been really incredible as far as busts go. Hardly any severe weather has occurred under the last 3 watches for this area. Heck today only featured one severe storm in NW Ohio and that was in a high probability watch box. Kind of underwhelming Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 PRE signature showing up well on some modeling...that is worrisome as it is capable of producing a narrow band of heavy rain prior to the main slug of moisture from the tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 610 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EASTERN MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... CENTRAL MENARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1215 AM CDT MONDAY * AT 608 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...MASON CITY...LE ROY...HEYWORTH... PETERSBURG...LEXINGTON...HUDSON...ATLANTA...DELAVAN...MINIER... DANVERS...COLFAX...DOWNS...HOPEDALE...MCLEAN...GREENVIEW...GREEN VALLEY...SAN JOSE AND STANFORD. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 155 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 22. INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 6. INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 129...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND 182. INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0550 PM FLASH FLOOD W MCLEAN 40.32N 89.17W 06/14/2015 MCLEAN IL NWS EMPLOYEE WATER OVER ROAD WEST OF MCLEAN ON US 136 EASTBOUND LANE 0545 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E HEYWORTH 40.31N 88.96W 06/14/2015 M3.78 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS RAIN FELL IN PAST 60 MINUTES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0550 PM FLASH FLOOD W MCLEAN 40.32N 89.17W 06/14/2015 MCLEAN IL NWS EMPLOYEE WATER OVER ROAD WEST OF MCLEAN ON US 136 EASTBOUND LANE 0545 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E HEYWORTH 40.31N 88.96W 06/14/2015 M3.78 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS RAIN FELL IN PAST 60 MINUTES That's a seriously insane rainfall rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 18z GFDL has some entertainment...system deepens through the 990s and into the 980s as it moves through the area very quickly (IL to eastern Lake Erie in 12 hours). Would probably be a strong/damaging wind threat s/e of the low especially if any breaks of sun, a la Ike. I'm not sure I'd trust the GFDL with a transitioning system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 18z GFDL has some entertainment...system deepens through the 990s and into the 980s as it moves through the area very quickly (IL to eastern Lake Erie in 12 hours). Would probably be a strong/damaging wind threat s/e of the low especially if any breaks of sun, a la Ike. I'm not sure I'd trust the GFDL with a transitioning system though. 0.0000000000001% chance of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 625 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0550 PM FLASH FLOOD W MCLEAN 40.32N 89.17W 06/14/2015 MCLEAN IL NWS EMPLOYEE WATER OVER ROAD WEST OF MCLEAN ON US 136 EASTBOUND LANE 0545 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E HEYWORTH 40.31N 88.96W 06/14/2015 M3.78 INCH MCLEAN IL COCORAHS RAIN FELL IN PAST 60 MINUTES PW value 1.92 on ILX 0z sounding ILX radar underestimating precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 DTW has received 1.07" in the last 6 hours. KDTW 142353Z 20005KT 8SM -RA SCT040CB BKN065 25/23 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB48 SLP129 CB W MOV E P0003 60107 T02500228 10278 20222 53001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Got a midnight shift tonight at ORD Will be curious to see if we manage any decent rains or if they stay south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Does this thread cover the upcoming tropical wave remnants that appear to come out of the gulf mid week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 Got a midnight shift tonight at ORD Will be curious to see if we manage any decent rains or if they stay south South for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Does this thread cover the upcoming tropical wave remnants that appear to come out of the gulf mid week? Yes it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 This last week has been really incredible as far as busts go. Hardly any severe weather has occurred under the last 3 watches for this area. Heck today only featured one severe storm in NW Ohio and that was in a high probability watch box. Kind of underwhelming Sent from my iPhone That's what you get with the lack of heat in a moisture-laden air mass (not to mention coming off a cold Winter and cool-ish Spring downwind of the lakes). For those who don't want the heat but want severe weather, this entire event is a perfect example that shows one can't have their cake and eat it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Definitely thinking tonight will be mostly quiet up this way. Heavy rain wording in the forecast for tomorrow though. Not enough destabilization with all the clouds to get into the severe weather this far north, so far... Several micro cells moving ENE across northern IL currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 lol Powerball. Been a scorcher for many in the region the past 7-8 days. Anyways, the typically awful 84 hour total QPF from the 0z NAM. Very much FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Pretty impressive photo from Ann Arbor after the flash flooding earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Maybe it's just me but it seems like there's been a bit of a tendency to shift the landfall farther down the Texas coast. Most of these runs are old but the BAM suite is 00z and those members take more of a western track in Texas. System is still quite disorganized so any center relocations could alter things. Winds are already strong enough so seems like a good chance this will get named tomorrow as more consolidation occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Easy to see where the 0z NAM tracked from the precip map above. Also still on the faster side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 lol Powerball. Been a scorcher for many in the region the past 7-8 days. tav7dydev.png Anyways, the typically awful 84 hour total QPF from the 0z NAM. Very much FWIW... lol nam.gif Chicago WX, the temp map posted for us up here seems to be the result of one 90°+ day, not sure about points south and east. What would be interesting to see if its available is the departure from normal for day time highs and night time lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Maybe it's just me but it seems like there's been a bit of a tendency to shift the landfall farther down the Texas coast. Most of these runs are old but the BAM suite is 00z and those members take more of a western track in Texas. Untitled.png System is still quite disorganized so any center relocations could alter things. Winds are already strong enough so seems like a good chance this will get named tomorrow as more consolidation occurs. Further down the coast into Texas would probably lead to a further north track once it rounds the bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Chicago WX, the temp map posted for us up here seems to be the result of one 90°+ day, not sure about points south and east. What would be interesting to see if its available is the departure from normal for day time highs and night time lows. Ask, and ye shall receive. It's been pretty warm/hot for the southern 1/2 of the sub-forum. And wet of course, for some/many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Ask, and ye shall receive. tmax7dydev.png tmin7dydev.png It's been pretty warm/hot for the southern 1/2 of the sub-forum. And wet of course, for some/many. precip7dydev.png Interesting indeed. At MSP we had a high temp of 92° on 6/9 yet our daily high temp was + or - 1° from normal, but our mean temp was looks like it was around +2. Much warmer at night. Hint...if any one wants to know how I get ° (degree symbol) simply hold down the alt key and type in 0176. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Further down the coast into Texas would probably lead to a further north track once it rounds the bend. Not if you believe the 0z GFS. 0z NAM made landfall around Houston and at the end of the run goes northeast from St. Louis to Toledo-ish maybe bit north of Toledo. 0z GFS made landfall just north of Brownsville and by hour 132 is moving east from St. Louis along I-70 to Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 00z GGEM...Christ almighty. Still with big amounts, but it does it a bit differently/different area than 12z as the remnant system is less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 0z Ukie is on the faster side. Has it in E IN by hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 00z GGEM...Christ almighty. Still with big amounts, but it does it a bit differently/different area than 12z as the remnant system is less progressive. My best guess is that this rain shield will come out more or less in piece. Where it goes will not be decided by where it comes ashore, but rather how far south the surface high over the great lakes, upper Mississippi Valley drops south. My current thinking is from St Lious to along the I 70 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 It's interesting how many models show this system staying relatively steady if not intensifying after landfall. Atmospheric conditions would seem supportive and again, the wet soil won't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 My best guess is that this rain shield will come out more or less in piece. Where it goes will not be decided by where it comes ashore, but rather how far south the surface high over the great lakes, upper Mississippi Valley drops south. My current thinking is from St Lious to along the I 70 area. Case in point. 24 to 36 hrs ago the GFS and Euro had a severe event for Minnesota for Friday. Now not so much as the best cape values stay to our west and then drop south and east. The eastern winds from that suface high over the lakes will drive things to the south. In addition, I highly doubt that here in MSP we will see more than a half inch of rainfall, if that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 It's interesting how many models show this system staying relatively steady if not intensifying after landfall. Atmospheric conditions would seem supportive and again, the wet soil won't hurt. Joe Bastardi said on his free Satruday upadate said that this system will be coming in weak as far as gulf systems go, and conditions would allow it to come ashore without much weakening (sp). I'm not a fan of Joe B, but it seems he might have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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