snowlover2 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 12z Euro tracks the troical Low through the heart of IL/IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Absolutely blinding rain going on right now. I bet Livonia, where this has been training over especially hard, gets like 2-3"+ from this before it rolls out. Yeah we've definitely gotten a good amount already in 20 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 12z Euro tracks the troical Low through the heart of IL/IN/OH. I suspect it will be a bit left of that as the front slows down before picking it up. Not to mention that the ridge along the east coast is forecast to strengthen a bit during the week before the system moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 A couple wet months of somewhat recent vintage. How will June 2015 stack up when it's over? Jul03PDataMRCC.png Sep08PDataMRCC.png Remember '08 specifically well. Was living in Peoria and manhole covers were shooting off as geysers erupted, and the river flooded significantly. Had to use a series of scaffolding catwalks to get to the former Old Chicago to drink some brews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Remember '08 specifically well. Was living in Peoria and manhole covers were shooting off as geysers erupted, and the river flooded significantly. Had to use a series of scaffolding catwalks to get to the former Old Chicago to drink some brews. 2008 had multiple tropical systems and a wavering frontal boundary...the remnants of Ike were the knockout blow so to speak. Terrible flooding in NW IN...I personally know people who lost their houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 12 Euro low seems to be just west of STL at 120 hours can someone post precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Shades of August 2014. To say it is raining torrentially right now is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 High CAPE and 30 knots of bulk shear across Northern Ohio. Could be some solid storms across the region here Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 So i'm guessing there would possibly be a severe threat to the south and east of the low track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 So i'm guessing there would possibly be a severe threat to the south and east of the low track? Could be. Instability is almost always a question mark in these setups but the system seems to maintain a good amount of low level shear as it moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 So i'm guessing there would possibly be a severe threat to the south and east of the low track? There would be a chance, weak sheared systems tend to produce tornadoes. As for now it is absolutely pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 And now it goes calm. Looks like another batch may be on the doorstep, Ann Arbor is under the gun again and there has been a few reports of some roads under water there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Looks like the far SE corner of Michigan and the Ohio border counties have a Severe T-Storm watch until 9PM. I missed that totally amongst all of the rain. Plus most of Indiana, Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Looks like the far SE corner of Michigan and the Ohio border counties have a Severe T-Storm watch until 9PM. I missed that totally amongst all of the rain. Plus most of Indiana, Ohio... Unless more action develops upstream, that will likely be cancelled shortly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Interesting...BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI308 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... NORTHEASTERN LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... SOUTHEASTERN WASHTENAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 415 PM EDT* AT 308 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SALINE... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MILAN AND DUNDEE AROUND 320 PM EDT. WILLIS AROUND 325 PM EDT. MAYBEE AROUND 330 PM EDT. CARLETON AROUND 340 PM EDT. FLAT ROCK AROUND 345 PM EDT. TRENTON AND GROSSE ILE AROUND 355 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEWOODHAVEN...RIVERVIEW...RIDGEWAY...WOODLAND BEACH...MACON...WILLOW...BROWNSTOWN TOWNSHIP...AZALIA...WALTZ AND BRIDGEWATER.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING.TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TOFLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.&&LAT...LON 4195 8401 4218 8395 4219 8314 4212 8313 4209 8315 4210 8318 4218 8315 4211 8319 4203 8318 4203 8320 4202 8318 4203 8317 4201 8317 4202 8321 4199 8321 4197 8325 4192 8327 4194 8331 4191 8334TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 269DEG 38KT 4209 8381TORNADO...POSSIBLEHAIL...<.75INWIND...60MPH$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Another month where it was raining almost every day was August 2007. Rainfall was more focused in the central/western part of the subforum. I remember it well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 ILN finally mentions the tropical low. FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WESTERN GULFCOAST WHERE AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MAY BECOME A TROPICALSYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE IN ERN TX. GIVEN THE HIGHDEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON THE TIMING AND HOWFAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPERLEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SO...FOR THE TIMEBEING...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOINGTHROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR BY/WEAKDISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID LVL FLOW...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE DIURNALCYCLE. HOWEVER...WE MUST CONTINUE TO WATCH THE DISTURBED TROPICALSYSTEM AND WHETHER IT MAY MOVE ACRS THE OHIO FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PWATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 cmc_total_precip_indy_35.png another one for posterity... 10 day precip totals lol, holy crap. Back in the LAF right now. Solid garden variety t'storm currently. Also see there's a blue box out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 lol, holy crap. Back in the LAF right now. Solid garden variety t'storm currently. Also see there's a blue box out. You might have to take a boat back to IKK if you're here for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 You might have to take a boat back to IKK if you're here for a while. Drive back today was revealing. Lots of water standing in fields and ditches, between IKK and LAF. And the Iroquois River is big time out of it's banks. More rainfall not going to help things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Can second your comment Chicago Wx as I drove down I-65 from Highland to Fortville IN yesterday afternoon. River and bottomland flooding which will only be exacerbated with the oncoming rains before we even receive moisture from the tropical system. 85/69 here currently with scattered clouds and sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Yeah Indystorm, it's impressively wet already in places...with more (much?) to go. My latest p&c through Thursday. Wash, rinse, repeat. Don't think I've seen that many consecutive "heavy rain" icons before...and with higher POPs to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OH...SERN LOWER MI...NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299... VALID 142014Z - 142215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PROGRESS AT 2010Z ACROSS WW 299...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN OHIO WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE WAS MAXIMIZED. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE WATCH AREA...ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. WHERE STORMS CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR SHORT LINES...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY GREATER. ..BUNTING.. 06/14/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Updated 7 day QPF looks like WPC favors a more southern track for the tropicl low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Updated 7 day QPF looks like WPC favors a more southern track for the tropicl low. I'm wondering how the speed may ultimately affect the track. My initial thought was that a quicker system may track farther north but I'm not so sure. Strength of the southeast ridge will be a key factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 18z GFS really slows the remnants down...still in Kansas at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I'm wondering how the speed may ultimately affect the track. My initial thought was that a quicker system may track farther north but I'm not so sure. Strength of the southeast ridge will be a key factor. I am thinking , how the Low interacts with the unstable boundary that is in place and somewhat stationary , will determine the placement of heavy precip, and track ..I have no idea, just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 18z GFS really slows the remnants down...still in Kansas at 120 hours. Looks like it initially moves farther west into central TX could just be me. 18z NAM at hour 84 has it near St. Louis and moving almost due east by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Looks like it initially moves farther west into central TX could just be me. 18z NAM at hour 84 has it near St. Louis and moving almost due east by that point. Yeah, big timing differences. These individual model solutions are not worth a whole lot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Yeah, big timing differences. These individual model solutions are not worth a whole lot at this point. Especially an 84 hour NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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