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June 10-20 Heavy Rain/Storms/Remnants


A-L-E-K

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Just took a look at the 0z GFS and it did something interesting for early/mid week. It has a Low moving NW in the west GOM and comes on shore around TX/LA monday night. From there it moves due north until it gets to SW MO and then turns NE and eventually due east along I-70 by Wed. There's a widespread 2"+ of rain with a band of 4-7". 18z GFS had something similar but it stayed on a more northeast track through IN into MI.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015061300&time=72&var=APCPI&hour=144

 

 

Yes this will be worth watching.  NHC is giving it a chance to develop, and Ninos historically have seen increased GOM activity at this time of year.

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SPC upgraded parts of our forum to slight today.

 

.MIDWEST THIS AFTN/EVE...
DESPITE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRONG SFC
HEATING OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT...MOIST /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ LOW-LVL
FLOW ALONG AND S OF WARM/STNRY FRONT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCTD TO
NUMEROUS AFTN/EVE STORMS ALONG AN ARC FROM ERN MO THROUGH IL INTO
IND/OH. OVERLAP OF BELT OF ENHANCED /30+ KT/ SWLY 700-500 MB FLOW
OVER IL/IND...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW IN
WI...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. 

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SPC upgraded parts of our forum to slight today.

 

.MIDWEST THIS AFTN/EVE...

DESPITE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRONG SFC

HEATING OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT...MOIST /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ LOW-LVL

FLOW ALONG AND S OF WARM/STNRY FRONT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCTD TO

NUMEROUS AFTN/EVE STORMS ALONG AN ARC FROM ERN MO THROUGH IL INTO

IND/OH. OVERLAP OF BELT OF ENHANCED /30+ KT/ SWLY 700-500 MB FLOW

OVER IL/IND...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW IN

WI...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED

STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. 

 

 

vort, we're in the other thread until tomorrow.

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impressive airmass change since yesterdays low 50s and fog...up to 85/72 at MDW, looks like some pooling of rich unstable air along the differential heating boundary draped across NE IL. I imagine LOT raises pops across the area later this afternoon but i've been wrong before. 

post-163-0-06035300-1434218659_thumb.png

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Looks slower than the GFS/GGEM.

 

 

Yep

 

Overall, this pattern is ripe to clobber somebody...if things break "right" and the front doesn't move around too much + potential tropical remnants involved, there's no telling how much rain may come down.

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