A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Looks like things are lining up for an active period later this week into the weekend. Severe, several organized complexes, and flooding all on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Where we throwing tomorrow? Looks interesting around here on the 12z NAM. Will depend on frontal boundary placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I know it is on the far end of the NAM but, the 12km NAM is painting an ominous picture across SW lower MI Friday evening along the warm front as the instability builds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 These high instability/borderline shear setups can be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2015 Author Share Posted June 9, 2015 the same general area that got hit hard a few days ago looks good again for some isolated big dogs, far southern LOT and NW IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 the same general area that got hit hard a few days ago looks good again for some isolated big dogs, far southern LOT and NW IN Agree, south of I-80 seems favored. NAM is a bit slower with the frontal passage so if it were to work out, then the threat could start a bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 And we now have a slight risk for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 What's the CAPE on the NAM once you shave 8 degrees off the surface dewpoint? Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 And we now have a slight risk for tomorrow. My area is included in the slight as well. We've had quite a few decent events the last few weeks here. Hopefully the trend continues, love me some good t-storms. There was a funnel cloud south of here the other day, but no confirmed touch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Models are really dumping rain on an area from northeast Nebraska to southeast MN and into Wisconsin, along and just north of the low track. DLL could be in for 2-3+ inches. Farther south in the warm sector we should get more scattered rain, but more of a severe threat, although again the morning fropa timing isn't ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 What's the CAPE on the NAM once you shave 8 degrees off the surface dewpoint? Just saying Even if the NAM's right as far as instability tomorrow, capping, mid-level drying, early/mid-afternoon frontal passage as well as west wind downsloping should leave the city and immediate metro area spared (except maybe ARB to DTW to michsnowfreak). Cleveland and London, ON seem to be in relatively decent spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2015 Author Share Posted June 9, 2015 Models are really dumping rain on an area from northeast Nebraska to southeast MN and into Wisconsin, along and just north of the low track. DLL could be in for 2-3+ inches. Farther south in the warm sector we should get more scattered rain, but more of a severe threat, although again the morning fropa timing isn't ideal. you can bank on that heavy rain corridor ending up south of current guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 you can bank on that heavy rain corridor ending up south of current guidance Yep, as usual. Same with whatever severe weather potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 What's the CAPE on the NAM once you shave 8 degrees off the surface dewpoint? Just saying Hmmm, might be something to consider. Although with moisture pooling ahead of the front and recent heavy rains, perhaps the NAM dewpoints will be within a few degrees of reality, at least in the IL/IN area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Hmmm, might be something to consider. Although with moisture pooling ahead of the front and recent heavy rains, perhaps the NAM dewpoints will be within a few degrees of reality, at least in the IL/IN area. I don't see them being 8 degrees off on the NAM, that is a bit unrealistic. Even the GFS is showing near 70 dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 If anything, the 18z NAM is even a touch slower with the front tomorrow compared to the 12z NAM valid 21z tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 If anything, the 18z NAM is even a touch slower with the front tomorrow compared to the 12z NAM valid 21z tomorrow afternoon. Yeah definitely slower, would certainly put all of SEMI in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2015 Author Share Posted June 9, 2015 If anything, the 18z NAM is even a touch slower with the front tomorrow compared to the 12z NAM valid 21z tomorrow afternoon. the trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Surprised there isn't more chatter from the Ontario folks on this, since this looks fairly legit for them as it stands right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Quite an interesting little setup tomorrow here, if the 18z NAM verifies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Surprised there isn't more chatter from the Ontario folks on this, since this looks fairly legit for them as it stands right now. Twitter is lighting up. Think most Ontarians here are more for winter than summer wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Surprised there isn't more chatter from the Ontario folks on this, since this looks fairly legit for them as it stands right now. Moderate Risk (highest this year) issued now by Environment Canada's O.S.P.C. with a Slight Risk for Tornadoes. WEDNESDAY.. SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE: MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND HAIL. SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Haha maybe I should go over the border to chase tomorrow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Haha maybe I should go over the border to chase tomorrow Sent from my iPhone Would come with you if I didn't have to work all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Think W NY has a chance too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Quite an interesting little setup tomorrow here, if the 18z NAM verifies.. weds nam cape.gif weds nam shear.gif weds nam sup.gif weds nam uvv.gif Wow. From 6000j/kg to <1000j/kg cape in about 3-4 tiers of counties in Iowa. Impressive gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Think W NY has a chance too. I'll take it WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL HELP QUICKLY BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY MIDDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1000-2000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR FORECAST AT 40-50 KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM FIRING BEFORE MAXIMUM SEVERE INDICIES DEVELOP. SOME STORMS WILL THEN BE TRIGGERED ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UNTIL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FROM BUFKIT ARE MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WHICH SUGGESTS A STORM MODE OF MULTICELL LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SOME LOW LEVEL VEERING OF THE WINDS MAY LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO SHOULD ANY NOTCHES DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Thinking the SPC will enlarge the slight risk on the north and west end tonight for tomorrow. Impressive ingredients coming into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 00z NAM/4 km doesn't look to be backing off much for tomorrow. Some really impressive hodographs showing up around 21z E of Georgian Bay. The lack of appreciable convection today so far will likely help tomorrow and there does look to be capping early on in the day to prevent premature initiation. Edit: NAM also looking quite interesting in IA/vicinity on Thursday again. 4 km looks like it has a ton of junk through the morning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 00z NAM/4 km doesn't look to be backing off much for tomorrow. Some really impressive hodographs showing up around 21z E of Georgian Bay. The lack of appreciable convection today so far will likely help tomorrow and there does look to be capping early on in the day to prevent premature initiation. Edit: NAM also looking quite interesting in IA/vicinity on Thursday again. 4 km looks like it has a ton of junk through the morning though. Also shows a line of Storms in IN friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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