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June 7-8 Severe Weather Threat


snowlover2

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Jon Davies gave a good talk several years back about these at a spotter conference about this topic. His page has some examples and he has written a paper on it I think. As he mentioned this is the most common tornado we typically have in Indiana.

http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2008/05/bow-echo-tornadoes-in-kansas-city-5208.html

http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2011/01/long-lived-tornadic-supercell-complex.html

 

 

To add a more recent example to this, I believe the St. Louis area EF4 tornado in April 2011 was a QLCS tornado.  Maybe andyhb or someone else can comment. 

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Jon Davies gave a good talk several years back about these at a spotter conference about this topic. His page has some examples and he has written a paper on it I think. As he mentioned this is the most common tornado we typically have in Indiana.

http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2008/05/bow-echo-tornadoes-in-kansas-city-5208.html

http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2011/01/long-lived-tornadic-supercell-complex.html

 

Awesome, Thanks!

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Yeah, if I were in North Judson right now, I'd have an eye on the sky, although it's an HP mess.

 

IWX will likely be sending a survey team to Starke County today as pictures showing possible tornado damage have been sent in and there is another report of 5 acres of trees being knocked over.

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Woke up to a tornado warning. Rotation went by just to my south.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  SOUTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...  CENTRAL WYOMING COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK...* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT* AT 1029 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED  NEAR SPRINGVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF HAMBURG...AND MOVING EAST  AT 45 MPH.
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nice update from our boy

 

 

 

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BUMP POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA IN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF IMPRESSIVE 100 KT+ 250 MB JET STREAK STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...AS WELL AS ENTRANCE REGION OF 70 TO 90
KT JET MAX/SHEARED SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT CAN BE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS AN UPTICK IN CU FORMATION OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO UPWARD MOTION FROM APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE.

LOCAL ANALYSIS SHOWS US SOUTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH AND 50S NORTH INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE IS ALSO A SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
OUR AREA TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH IN WISCONSIN. EXPECTING
THE FORCED UPWARD MOTION FROM THE JET DYNAMICS AND SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AS SOME POOLING/CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH AXIS TO FOSTER
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL START IN
WISCONSIN AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND IF DEWPOINTS DONT
MIX OUT...COULD SEE THESE VALUES AT LEAST THIS HIGH AT PEAK
HEATING. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL 500 MB TEMPS IN
THE MINUS MID TEENS CELSIUS...IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS MID/UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON...COULD SEE A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS STILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND MARGINALLY SEVERE.

HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THAT LATE
SUNSET THIS TIME OF YEAR SLOWS DIURNAL STABILIZATION SOME...BUT
ONCE TO DARK...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END.
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The morning/early afternoon cloud cover may have worked out to our benefit. Dewpoints have actualy pulled up into the mid 60s with a decent CU field developing to the NW. Could still hit 80*F also after sitting in the upper 60/low 70s through the early afternoon hours.

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Things got really aggitated locally here the last 30 or so minutes....a couple of ducks on the pond for possible cells in a half hour or so as i look around

Edit: or ten minutes...doubled in height in just under 10 minutes

 

 

HRRR takes a nice hail core over ORD

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