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June 7-8 Severe Weather Threat


snowlover2

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New watch possible south and east of current ones.

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN IL...NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267...270...

VALID 072234Z - 080000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
267...270...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATCH AREAS IN THE FORM OF LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS. THE MORE PRONOUNCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE WITH PRONOUNCED BOWING SEGMENT OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. A
LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED WITH TIME TO THE EAST OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270...AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOUTHEAST OF
THIS WATCH LATER THIS EVENING.


DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SVR TSTMS WERE IN PROGRESS AT 2225Z FROM NWRN
IND SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL IL...WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
RECENTLY HAS BEEN LINEAR...WITH A PRONOUNCED BOWING SEGMENT OVER FAR
NWRN IND SHOWING A WELL-DEVELOPED COMMA HEAD AND REAR INFLOW JET.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT SVR WIND REPORTS
POSSIBLE AS THIS SEGMENT OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD WITHIN A
FAVORABLY SHEARED/MODERATELY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. WITH TIME...A
LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 270 MAY BE NEEDED TO THE E OF CURRENT WATCH
AREA. IN ADDITION...A NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THIS WATCH LATER THIS EVENING.

SVR TSTMS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL IL WITHIN WW 267 REMAIN
A MIX OF LINEAR AND SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS. MESOANALYSIS AND RECENT VWP
DATA REFLECT 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN BROAD/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE AREA...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SVR THREAT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

..BUNTING.. 06/07/2015

 

post-4544-0-98479000-1433717376_thumb.gi

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Yeah, if I were in North Judson right now, I'd have an eye on the sky, although it's an HP mess.

There was a TVS just north of North Judson a few minutes ago. I don't think the circulation every truly tightened up enough but its in an extremely favorable environment. A ton of Relative Helicity ahead of it too. 

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New watch

 

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY OVER ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND AS IT
PROCEEDS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE-FORCE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LOCALLY INTENSE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE
POSSIBLE. A RISK EXISTS FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT
WAYNE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 270. WATCH NUMBER 270 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 700 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 267...WW 268...WW
269
...

 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM TORNADO 3 NNW DE MOTTE 41.24N 87.21W
06/07/2015 JASPER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

VIDEO OF TORNADO TAKEN FROM RT 231 AND STATE ROAD 2

0439 PM TORNADO 5 NE DE MOTTE 41.25N 87.13W
06/07/2015 JASPER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

VIDEO OF TORNADO...UNCLEAR IF SECOND TOUCHDOWN OR
CONTIUNOUS PATH

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Ohio monitored for a watch. Also enhanced area into W OH.

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...

VALID 080103Z - 080200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SVR TSTMS FROM HOWARD COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO
MONTGOMERY COUNTY INDIANA CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE AT AROUND 35 KTS.
WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...THIS LINE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA. IN
ADDITION...UPSTREAM SVR TSTMS ABOUT TO EXIT WW 267 WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 271 IN THE 01-02Z TIME FRAME.

ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS WW
271 DURING THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FARTHER E FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW INTO NWRN OH.

..BUNTING.. 06/08/2015

 

 

post-4544-0-44567400-1433726334_thumb.gi

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TORNADO WARNING
INC045-107-080145-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0005.150608T0120Z-150608T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 918 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VEEDERSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
FOUNTAIN AND WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...WAYNETOWN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 29.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

705 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0428 PM TORNADO 3 NNW DE MOTTE 41.24N 87.21W

06/07/2015 JASPER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

VIDEO OF TORNADO TAKEN FROM RT 231 AND STATE ROAD 2

0439 PM TORNADO 5 NE DE MOTTE 41.25N 87.13W

06/07/2015 JASPER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

VIDEO OF TORNADO...UNCLEAR IF SECOND TOUCHDOWN OR

CONTIUNOUS PATH

Not sure if this is the video that is mentioned...

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Went spotting in the county this evening even though I knew the storms were going to turn south and leave us with scraps. I did get to see some nice shelf cloud structure and a couple of REAL close CG strikes. Drove home in the dark watching lots of crawlers. A nice stormy evening, although no severe.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
935 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
 
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
    
* AT 935 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER VILLA GROVE...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  TUSCOLA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
 
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 
 
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 
 
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BROADLANDS AROUND 950 PM CDT.
  ALLERTON AROUND 955 PM CDT.
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LONGVIEW.
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 215 AND 222.

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN VERMILION COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 939 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER HOMER...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF URBANA...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FAIRMOUNT AND FITHIAN AROUND 950 PM CDT.
OAKWOOD AROUND 955 PM CDT.
CATLIN AROUND 1000 PM CDT.
DANVILLE...GEORGETOWN...WESTVILLE...TILTON AND BELGIUM AROUND 1005
PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
KICKAPOO STATE PARK...MUNCIE AND JAMAICA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 193 AND 220.

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New tornado warning. Total of 4 now between E IL/W IN.

 

 

 

TORNADO WARNING
INC121-165-080345-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0007.150608T0316Z-150608T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1116 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
CENTRAL VERMILLION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1114 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHRISMAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEWPORT AROUND 1135 PM EDT.
ROCKVILLE AROUND 1145 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE DANA...MONTEZUMA...
BLOOMINGDALE...TURKEY RUN STATE PARK AND MARSHALL.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  TORNADO WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  1144 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...    SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...    CENTRAL PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...    * UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT    * AT 1141 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A    TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCKVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.      HAZARD...TORNADO.      SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.      IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT             SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE             TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS             LIKELY.    * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL    PARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...TURKEY RUN STATE PARK...MARSHALL...JUDSON AND    WAVELAND.  
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Tornadoes within a line of storms have to be the most dangerous of them all. You expect an ordinary t-storm and then get hit, must be completely rain-wrapped when they do occur. The strength of these tornadoes are usually limited to EF0-EF1 right?

 

 

A higher percentage of them tend to be rated at those levels compared to discrete supercellular tornadoes, but it's not extremely uncommon to get a stronger tornado from circulations embedded within a line.  There have occasionally even been tornadoes in the (E)F3-4 range.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...

VALID 080402Z - 080530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO CONTINUES
ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. A LOCAL EXTENSION
IN AREA AND TIME MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 05Z
EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...A PRONOUNCED BOWING COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES
MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KTS ACROSS W-CENTRAL INDIANA/E-CENTRAL IL AT
04Z...EXTENDING GENERALLY FROM MONTGOMERY CO INDIANA TO CLARK COUNTY
IL. RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS A NRN BOOKEND VORTEX MAY BE
DEVELOPING...AND A REAR INFLOW JET MAY BE BECOMING ESTABLISHED. IF
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS BOWING COMPLEX MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE AND SHORT-LIVED QLCS TORNADOES

BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 271 AT 05Z. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT MAY SHIFT S OF THE CURRENT SRN WATCH AREA...IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
AS A RESULT A LOCAL AREAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF THE WW MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WFO IND CWA. BEYOND 06-07Z...THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

..BUNTING.. 06/08/2015


ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40308616 40368530 40248486 40078490 39908514 39568541
39058570 38878616 38778660 38768718 38768743 38948750
39398752 40358747 40308616

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

1106 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG MOROCCO 40.95N 87.45W  

06/07/2015 NEWTON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT  

 

DELAYED REPORT. ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A HOUSE ON MERIDIAN RD.  

TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.  

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A higher percentage of them tend to be rated at those levels compared to discrete supercellular tornadoes, but it's not extremely uncommon to get a stronger tornado from circulations embedded within a line.  There have occasionally even been tornadoes in the (E)F3-4 range.

 

Thanks! I have to find some examples of radar images of what those stronger tornadoes look like in a line.

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Jon Davies gave a good talk several years back about these at a spotter conference about this topic. His page has some examples and he has written a paper on it I think. As he mentioned this is the most common tornado we typically have in Indiana.

http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2008/05/bow-echo-tornadoes-in-kansas-city-5208.html

http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2011/01/long-lived-tornadic-supercell-complex.html

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