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June 7-8 Severe Weather Threat


snowlover2

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text on why the enhanced area was added

 


..PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    /1/ PORTIONS OF NRN IL INTO NWRN INDIANA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO THE  ENHANCED CATEGORY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION  CONTINUES ADVANCING NWD ACROSS NRN IL...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT  APPROACHING THE MS RIVER. THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES  TO DESTABILIZE. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 18Z ILX RAOB FOR TEMPERATURES  IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WITH DEWPOINTS OF 68-71F INDICATE  MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN  A FOCUSED AREA OF CONVECTIVE GENERATION INVOF THE OUTFLOW  BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG  INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES MEASURED AROUND 6.8  C/KM...INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY ENSUE AS CONVECTION BECOMES  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE ILX AND LOT  VWPS INDICATING 1-2-KM-AGL FLOW HOLDING AROUND 30-40 KT AND 35-45 KT  OF DEEP SHEAR...CONFIDENCE IS FURTHER BOLSTERED IN STRONG BOWING  ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO A  QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENT ORIENTED ALONG MEAN CLOUD-LAYER WSWLY FLOW. ONE  OR TWO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN IL/NWRN  INDIANA WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY BACKED ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL  STREAMWISE VORTICITY -- AS INDICATED BY THE LOT VWP /DESPITE  SAMPLING WITHIN DEEPER COOL-STABLE AIR/.  
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Environment is pretty ripe still around Highway 30, but the best combination of instability and OFB is definitely south of I-80 right now.

 

Cell entering Peoria County has a nice 65 dBZ core over 25 kft.

 

 

 

Half dollar size hail with that cell.

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85/73 here with mostly full sun.  CF to the northwest is trying to get something going.  Nice row of thunderheads off to the northwest.

 

I wouldn't sleep on the cold front itself, those trailing boundaries can have a few surprises from time to time.

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Everything broke up before it made it here to Detroit. Mostly cloudy but with a few peeks of sun, 81 with a 65 dew.

 

Some garden variety stuff has developed just to the WSW. 

 

Maybe we can still at least get some cracks of thunder and lightning.

 

I was outside earlier this afternoon and you could really feel the inflow of warm air/moisture. 

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