Powerball Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 12z 4km NAM is still solid, but of course it's pretty much clueless with respect to the ongoing IL MCS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Some good whip crackers and long low rumblers behind the front line...nice to hear PWATs are up there....some nice downpours yep, wasn't bad considering it was dying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 IT's also assuming widespread highs in the mid/upper 80s and With the cloud cover expected this afternoon, I'm thinking the HRRR is a little too ambitious. Yeah it's very aggressive with recovery with even some isolated 90 degree readings up to I-80 or so. Would take a lot for that to occur but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Yeah it's very aggressive with recovery with even some isolated 90 degree readings up to I-80 or so. Would take a lot for that to occur but stranger things have happened. And the ongoing MCS (which the HRRR also didn't pick up on) will only further slow down temp/moisture recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Sun breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 And the ongoing MCS (which the HRRR also didn't pick up on) will only further slow down temp/moisture recovery. Was going to edit my other post but since you replied before I got the chance, the 13z HRRR is even more aggressive with recovery (temps into the 90s north of I-80 especially IL/IN) and is doing a pretty decent job with current activity. Given the way that visible satellite looks, it seems like it would be hard to pull off that kind of warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Here's what the 13z HRRR had for 15z. This is reasonably close to what the current radar looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 HRRR refires storms around the I-88 corridor later. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Low level clouds really on the move northbound....i dont think it would take any prolonged period of sun to set things off. Getting another drenching here with a few rumbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 At this point - sitting at 63° with intermittent showers and clouds, I don't see how we will be able to muster ANY convection later today in lower Michigan. Worked over atmosphere. Classic I-80 southward event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Have to think that dying MCS is gonna lay down some nice boundaries and enhance helicity over IL and IN. I'm cautiously optimistic for later today. 82/66 at Indy at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 pretty sure that's all she wrote for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Macomb IL is up to 80/73 so temperatures should shoot up quickly once the storms clear east of IL, there should still be plenty of time to destabilize as long as clouds move out in the next 2 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 7, 2015 Author Share Posted June 7, 2015 No real changes to the new day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Too many clouds so far for any destabilization. Dewpoint has been rising up though - 69°/66° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Nice late morning update from LOT/Gino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Anyone see the mesoscale analysis? CAPE is surging hard into the area with 2500 j/kg already in Central Illinois Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 For central IN posters from IND .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015SPED UP ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS UPDATE ANDADJUSTED TIMING OF ONSET OF SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.APPEARS LIKELY THAT LINGERING ACTIVITY WITH OVERNIGHT MCSCURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS WILL PUSH INTO THENORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKENAS IT DOES SO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OFBEGINNING UPSTREAM...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCURFURTHER SOUTH ALONG OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR ACTIVITY. HAVE ADJUSTEDMOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE TO START AS EARLY AS 4 PM AS ARESULT.MAIN THREATS REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 79/72 SQI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 7, 2015 Author Share Posted June 7, 2015 Nice late morning update from LOT/Gino. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 .UPDATE... 1115 AM CDT CHALLENGING SHORT TERM FORECAST REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY. MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING SITUATION AND RAP/HRRR BOTH HAVE RIDICULOUSLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN HUGE UNREALISTIC INSTABILITY VALUES RAISING DOUBTS ABOUT ITS OUTPUT. TAIL END OF THE WEAKENING MORNING MCS IS LAYING DOWN EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND OUR SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHERN CWA. MCS NEVER REALLY HAD LARGE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION AND THUS NO STRONG MESO-HIGH OR MESOSCALE COLD POOL...HOWEVER CLOUDINESS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION IS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC FRONT STILL LIES FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH OUR CWA IN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS IOWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD LEND SOME SUPPORT TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FRONT APPROACHES. BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW...WITH MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL. GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE ISOLATED (LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED) CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST IA EAST TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. FURTHER HEATING AND LIFTING NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THESE STORMS BECOMING SURFACE BASED OR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE IN THIS REGION. MODIFYING MORNING ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL SO MORE ROBUST SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN FAIRLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS OUR CWA THE BEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH THE THREAT INCREASING THE FARTHER SOUTH OF I-80 YOU HEAD. DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT THOUGH WITH ANY MIXED SUNSHINE IT SHOULDNT BE HARD TO SEE TEMPS CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE 80S...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TEMPERATURE RISE. CERTAINLY GIVEN THE SHEAR IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT A MEANINGFUL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER EQUALLY IF NOT MORE CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA AS LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FEED NORTH INTO REGION. MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN CONTINUED THREAT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN CWA...THOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION COULD PUSH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND BETTER CONVECTIVE THREAT FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 SE IA and west central IL really looking prime per many mesoscale parameters at present...CAPE 3500..dews around 70. Gonna be some super efficient rain makers at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 And just like that the temp sky rocketed 5 degrees with full sun, up to 87/68 here in Urbana. Let's see what gets rolling later. Sufficient rain makers at the minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 88/71 DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 81/68 in BG. It's a long uphill battle to get any severe today but there's always a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Very brief breaks providing quick glimpses of sun....16z HRRR liked i80 south for this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Hadn't really looked at tomorrow but besides the threat in the Ohio Valley, there could be a marginal threat with the cold pocket aloft farther north in the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 new meso mentions watch coming soon http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0924.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Just south of I-80 here in NE IL. Temp/humidity/wind all jumped up very quickly. Occasional sun now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Feels like an airmass change of sorts just occurred...winds really ramped up out of the south and DP and temp jumped a bit too. More frequent peaks of sun now too. I suppose we'll see what that translates to. i80 and south looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Some 90 degree readings as far north as C IL and also at EOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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