Indystorm Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 And since mid level flow is lacking for this evening's episode in the plains will it strengthen and be sufficient Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 And since mid level flow is lacking for this evening's episode in the plains will it strengthen and be sufficient Sunday? Yes it should be sufficient for storm organization tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Gino is thinking morning complex stays north, backed off to a 30% probability of thunderstorms at the airports in his terminal forecasts this evening. Are you leaning any particular way right now? Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see some remnant convection make it into the area during the morning (which has at least some model support), but I don't think it's going to be enough to be a deal breaker for later in the day as I anticipate enough recovery behind whatever boundary may come through. Thinking initiation/refiring right in the metro area tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Are you leaning any particular way right now? Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see some remnant convection make it into the area during the morning (which has at least some model support), but I don't think it's going to be enough to be a deal breaker for later in the day as I anticipate enough recovery behind whatever boundary may come through. Thinking initiation/refiring right in the metro area tomorrow. Yeah that's what I'm thinking as well. The models show the LLJ ramping up quite a bit later tonight which should maintain it through tomorrow morning. Most of the models move it out by mid-morning, which should leave plenty of time to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 What will most likely happen (which typically does in these setups) is that the MCS will split into 2 parts. The strong/severe storms will dive SE into western IL/MO along the instability gradient, while the stratiform rains continue to track ENE with the shortwave into WI/MI. In between, they'll probably be a ton of cirrus debris and an outflow bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Interesting to see what the 18z 4km is doing...storm blows up in northern IL and moves SE (with mostly veered flow on the synoptic scale) but if you look closely at the sfc winds, it seems to modify the near storm environment to it's southeast and locally backs the sfc winds which would really increase your 0-1km SRH values.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Some pretty serious theta-e advection into that thing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 At first glance, 0z NAM might have a slower/further north front location. 500mb eight field at 12/15z is def further north compared to 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Impressive 0-1 km EHI values off the 4 km in N IL at 18z (moves right over Chicagoland at 19z). Wonder if there will be enough forcing for any pre-frontal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 At first glance, 0z NAM might have a slower/further north front location. 500mb eight field at 12/15z is def further north compared to 18z run. It is further north with the overnight MCS as well which it better represents the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 00z 4km NAM is pretty bullish on warming tomorrow with some 90 degree readings along/south of I-80 in IL. That would undoubtedly heighten the wind threat with those steep low level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 SPC update last hour expanded the slight risk tonight into eastern Iowa. There should be a line of storms reaching Cedar Rapids around 4am. Previous complexes this spring have died overnight, but a nice low level jet veering into eastern Iowa is forecast to keep the storms going longer this time. Strong wind gusts should be the main risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Having 6/5/10 as an analog is slightly spooky (I.e: Millbury, OH EF4), but I'm thinking things will be mostly linear by the time storms cross into OH (though I'm sure embedded spin ups will be possible), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Well there's the MCS over NE and IA, looks pretty substantial too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Are you leaning any particular way right now? Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see some remnant convection make it into the area during the morning (which has at least some model support), but I don't think it's going to be enough to be a deal breaker for later in the day as I anticipate enough recovery behind whatever boundary may come through. Thinking initiation/refiring right in the metro area tomorrow. I'm pretty much leaning that way as well. I like that the 4km NAM has been pretty consistent in that general scenario for several runs in a row. Things could go linear pretty quick but assuming the idea of refiring over the metro pans out, the better chance for discrete/semi-discrete could be within 1-2 hrs of initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 7, 2015 Author Share Posted June 7, 2015 New day 1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. ..SYNOPSIS A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD/AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A RELATED SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN WI AND UPPER MI INTO ADJACENT ONTARIO...REACHING SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WILL ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTH TOWARD LOWER MI...INTO THE MIDWEST...LOWER MO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL ADVANCE NNEWD ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ESTABLISHING A BROAD CORRIDOR OF RICH GULF RETURN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL ELONGATE ENE/WSW OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...BETWEEN FLANKING RIDGES OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NWRN STATES. ..SRN GREAT LAKES/OH AND MID MS VALLEYS AN ONGOING MCS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH ERN WI...FAR NRN IL AND WEST-CENTRAL IL PER RECENT HRRR RUNS/00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ AS FAR EAST AS SRN LOWER MI AND WRN OH AND DIABATIC HEATING. THE LEADING EXTENT OF THE EARLY MORNING MCS SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY IT REACHES SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IL /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA/ BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES AS THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG MODESTLY STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR A TORNADO THREAT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A WSW/ENE-ELONGATED QUASI-LINEAR MCS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD-LAYER FLOW...WHILE GRADUALLY SPREADING ESEWD/SEWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL INDIANA...NWRN OH...SERN IL AND PARTS OF WRN OH. DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS CONVECTION REGENERATES/SPREADS INTO A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL MO WWD TO ERN CO ASCENT SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROCESSES RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT AND THE TRAILING EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE WI/NRN IL MCS AS IT SETTLES SWD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES AND WWD TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE AND MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW TO ITS E. THE PRESENCE OF 25-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG EQUATORWARD SURGE OF LOW THETA-E AIR...CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN PARTS OF E-CNTRL CO INTO NRN KS AND PERHAPS FAR SRN NEB WHERE POST-FRONTAL DIRECTIONAL-FLOW VARIABILITY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BOLSTER DEEP SHEAR /POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/. A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM OK INTO SERN KS AND MO MAY AID IN SUSTAINING TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SERN KS TO CENTRAL MO WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS/DEAN.. 06/07/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 RAP is really aggressive with warming/mixing, and as a result has lower dewpoints and lower instability. HRRR not really backing it up so it's probably overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 There has been a decent line moving across Iowa, but it has remained below severe level. There wasn't much wind here, just a solid thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Here's what one forecast radar shows at 1pm today. Take it FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Ahh crapvection rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 gonna be a dying complex followed by a re-fire just south tomorrow. nailed part 1 Gino is thinking morning complex stays north, backed off to a 30% probability of thunderstorms at the airports in his terminal forecasts this evening. these overnight MCS love to dive south into the better instability, no way this thing would hang north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 HRRR recovers most of IL/IN/MI fairly nicely. A nice "cellular" squall line develops later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 nailed part 1 these overnight MCS love to dive south into the better instability, no way this thing would hang north Good call. 850-300 mb winds were basically straight out of the west so based on where it formed, it had no choice but to go east.Biggest thing in favor of recovery and refiring now is how early this MCS is pushing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 nailed part 1 these overnight MCS love to dive south into the better instability, no way this thing would hang north Yeah, RPM forecasts and other short term models failed with how far south this morning crapvection extended, and I could tell it would last night when the strongest storms were in E Nebraska heading E and ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 gonna see some huge towers go up just south later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 HRRR recovers most of IL/IN/MI fairly nicely. A nice "cellular" squall line develops later this afternoon. IT's also assuming widespread highs in the mid/upper 80s and With the cloud cover expected this afternoon, I'm thinking the HRRR is a little too ambitious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Enhanced risk is gone from the Day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 FAirly notable changes on the latest SPC outlook... ...IL/INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI/WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV OVER SW WI AND ASSOCIATED MCS WILL CONTINUE EWDACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL THIS MORNING...AND WILL REACH SW LOWER MI ANDNW INDIANA BY MID MORNING AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS. OUTFLOW WITHTHIS MORNING CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONTACCOMPANYING A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ESEWD FROMTHE DAKOTAS/MN THIS MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BYEARLY-MID AFTERNOON FROM SRN IA/NRN MO ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL INTONRN INDIANA.LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TO THE S OF THE OUTFLOW AND SOME INCREASE INLOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTFOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO GROW INTO LINE SEGMENTS THISAFTERNOON...GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITHFLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BEPOSSIBLE...THOUGH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAKDEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL TEMPER THE HAIL RISK TO SOME EXTENT. ANYTORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS SINCEDEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MODE DO NOT FAVORSUPERCELLS. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...THOMPSON/COOK.. 06/07/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Threat seems somewhat mitigated for now due to aforementioned shear issues. But sometimes nature surprises. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Some good whip crackers and long low rumblers behind the front line...nice to hear PWATs are up there....some nice downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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