Hoosier Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Afternoon outlook 20 minutes late and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Afternoon outlook 20 minutes late and counting. Must be making some sort of changes... even with modest instability there should be good enough dynamics to sustain a severe threat through the evening/early night. IWX liked the potential for a HSLC event EDIT: 30 minutes and counting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Enhanced risk shifted north on the afternoon day 2 outlook, now covering a pretty good chunk of Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Enhanced risk shifted north on the afternoon day 2 outlook, now covering a pretty good chunk of Chicagoland. SPC also notes that there would perhaps be an enhanced tornado risk in Southern Lower Michigan, where uncertainty is pretty substantial at this point. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A WSW/ENE-ELONGATED QUASI-LINEAR MCS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN CLOUD-LAYER FLOW...WHILE GRADUALLY SPREADING ESEWD/SEWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...AND SWRN LOWER MI. DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS CONVECTION REGENERATES/SPREADS INTO MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FARTHER ESE/SE. THE MCS SHOULD DECAY BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES/REACHES THE OHIO RIVER. NOTABLE CONDITIONAL SVR RISK COULD EXTEND INTO OTHER PARTS OF SRN LOWER MI...OUTSIDE OF THE ENH/SLGT AREAS...WHERE RELATIVELY MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENCOURAGES GREATER SRH AND ROTATING-TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND RELATED DELAYED/MITIGATED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION EXTEND TO THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...EVEN HIGHER SVR-TSTM PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY NEGLIGIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2015 Author Share Posted June 6, 2015 Since i was the "thread starter" i added the 8th since the threat will continue overnight sunday into monday morning and because there is a continued threat for parts of S OH and KY on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 The 12z 4km SPC WRF is fairly impressive for tomorrow. Isolated/strong updraft helicity tracks right in the same area as 6/5/10 Tomorrow is our last day of trip 3 for COD so we should be there. In Nebraska today and scored big in CO yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Since I brought it up originally and Tsnow just mentioned it, one difference from 6/5/2010 is that mid-upper level winds are weaker this time (there was like a 70 kt 500 mb max in 2010). Surface lows are similar strength with tomorrow's being farther north. Low level flow didn't really back at all but there was plenty of directional shear with the WNW flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 12z 4km was quality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 This could be one of the more impressive threats in MI in awhile taking a brief peruse of 12z guidance. Will be dependent on destabilization of course, but the NAM variants in particular are showing some seriously impressive low level shear profiles over western/central portions of the lower peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening. Would think any supercell that fires across the northern tier of the risk area may have a substantial tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 This could be one of the more impressive threats in MI in awhile taking a brief peruse of 12z guidance. Will be dependent on destabilization of course, but the NAM variants in particular are showing some seriously impressive low level shear profiles over western/central portions of the lower peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening. Would think any supercell that fires across the northern tier of the risk area may have a substantial tornado threat. Yeah the 4km NAM backs the flow later in the evening along 75 near Flint as well. That would substantially increase the low level shear. Dare I say this might be one of the better potentials locally in a while especially if the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 This could be one of the more impressive threats in MI in awhile taking a brief peruse of 12z guidance. Will be dependent on destabilization of course, but the NAM variants in particular are showing some seriously impressive low level shear profiles over western/central portions of the lower peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening. Would think any supercell that fires across the northern tier of the risk area may have a substantial tornado threat. I'm not really sold on that area destabilizing enough for a more substantial threat, but if it does, then there certainly would be decent tornado potential as that area has the best low level shear in the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 I'm not really sold on that area destabilizing enough for a more substantial threat, but if it does, then there certainly would be decent tornado potential as that area has the best low level shear in the afternoon/evening. With the wind shear being shown 1500 J/kg would be enough, most models show at least that with some showing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Random meaningless stat... out of the 15 CIPS analogs for tomorrow, about 2/3 occurred in ENSO neutral years with the remainder occurring during the warm or cold phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 With the wind shear being shown 1500 J/kg would be enough, most models show at least that with some showing more. If that happens, game on. I'm just a bit skeptical the farther north you go into Michigan but it's really only a guess. Will have to see what things look like in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 If that happens, game on. I'm just a bit skeptical the farther north you go into Michigan but it's really only a guess. Will have to see what things look like in the morning. Yeah usually I am on the lol MI potential too but this does have some favored MI potential aspects, the low location, lack of major morning convection, and warm front intersecting the area during peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Nothing really new to add today compared to yesterday. Still looks like a solid severe threat for the areas SPC outlined. I thought SPC did a fantastic write up on tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Nothing really new to add today compared to yesterday. Still looks like a solid severe threat for the areas SPC outlined. I thought SPC did a fantastic write up on tomorrow. Good to see someone other than Darrow on those outlooks. Was growing really frustrated with his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 18z GFS came in a bit quicker and with more instability into southern lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Bill Marino (WDM) with GRR is underplaying tomorrow's event hard (which isn't uncommon with him lol) non-shalantly saying "he supposes areas along I-94 could probably see a severe storm", while focusing most attention to our mid-late next week with a quasi-stationary front being the focus of a much better chance of heavy rain/severe weather. I guess we'll wait and see, but at this point I'm seeing a pretty decent threat for southern lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Bill Marino (WDM) with GRR is underplaying tomorrow's event hard (which isn't uncommon with him lol) non-shalantly saying "he supposes areas along I-94 could probably see a severe storm", while focusing most attention to our mid-late next week with a quasi-stationary front being the focus of a much better chance of heavy rain/severe weather. I can understand why. It's certainly not the most ideal setup (in our area) from a instability standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 I agree. I-80 and south certainly looks prime for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Mid level lapse rates are terrible on the NAM (generally about 5-6C from 700-500 mb) so it says something that it's still generating CAPE in excess of 2000-3000. The GFS seems a little better so it will be interesting to see what wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 gonna be a dying complex followed by a re-fire just south tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 gonna be a dying complex followed by a re-fire just south tomorrow. Gino is thinking morning complex stays north, backed off to a 30% probability of thunderstorms at the airports in his terminal forecasts this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 It's interesting reading various forecasters thoughts concerning the threat for IN tomorrow. The afternoon forecaster at IWX is kind of downplaying it, while Mike Ryan at IND is hyping the severe as well as heavy rain aspect. After reading many of Mike's detailed discussions since his arrival at Indy, I strongly suspect he is a well-educated . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Mid level lapse rates are terrible on the NAM (generally about 5-6C from 700-500 mb) so it says something that it's still generating CAPE in excess of 2000-3000. The GFS seems a little better so it will be interesting to see what wins out. Important to note that the 18z NAM also had a large MCS over all of E NE/W IA right now, when in reality everywhere south of Norfolk is essentially convection free. It then proceeded to bring the remnants over the threat area tomorrow in the morning. If that southern part fails to materialize, it obviously opens the door to stronger destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 From 12z off the EMC WRF NMM. Shows some pretty decent looking supercellular characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 ^ Holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Mid level lapse rates are terrible on the NAM (generally about 5-6C from 700-500 mb) so it says something that it's still generating CAPE in excess of 2000-3000. The GFS seems a little better so it will be interesting to see what wins out. Very good point. Heck I think this is showing the highest CAPE numbers of 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Mid level lapse rates are terrible on the NAM (generally about 5-6C from 700-500 mb) so it says something that it's still generating CAPE in excess of 2000-3000. The GFS seems a little better so it will be interesting to see what wins out. Dare I say if the plains convection doesn't blow up too much the GFS might end up right with better lapse rates, imagine colocating those lapse rates with the surface temps/dews off the NAM. Of course this would be your ceiling but it is something to factor on as the 12km NAM is doing terribly with current convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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