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June 7-8 Severe Weather Threat


snowlover2

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text on why the enhanced area was added

 

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..PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    /1/ PORTIONS OF NRN IL INTO NWRN INDIANA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO THE  ENHANCED CATEGORY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION  CONTINUES ADVANCING NWD ACROSS NRN IL...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT  APPROACHING THE MS RIVER. THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES  TO DESTABILIZE. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 18Z ILX RAOB FOR TEMPERATURES  IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WITH DEWPOINTS OF 68-71F INDICATE  MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND LITTLE CINH. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN  A FOCUSED AREA OF CONVECTIVE GENERATION INVOF THE OUTFLOW  BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG  INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES MEASURED AROUND 6.8  C/KM...INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY ENSUE AS CONVECTION BECOMES  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE ILX AND LOT  VWPS INDICATING 1-2-KM-AGL FLOW HOLDING AROUND 30-40 KT AND 35-45 KT  OF DEEP SHEAR...CONFIDENCE IS FURTHER BOLSTERED IN STRONG BOWING  ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO A  QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENT ORIENTED ALONG MEAN CLOUD-LAYER WSWLY FLOW. ONE  OR TWO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN IL/NWRN  INDIANA WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY BACKED ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL  STREAMWISE VORTICITY -- AS INDICATED BY THE LOT VWP /DESPITE  SAMPLING WITHIN DEEPER COOL-STABLE AIR/.  
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  On 6/7/2015 at 7:30 PM, Gilbertfly said:

Some stuff firing N of QC also

 

Environment is pretty ripe still around Highway 30, but the best combination of instability and OFB is definitely south of I-80 right now.

 

Cell entering Peoria County has a nice 65 dBZ core over 25 kft.

 

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  On 6/7/2015 at 7:51 PM, OceanStWx said:

Environment is pretty ripe still around Highway 30, but the best combination of instability and OFB is definitely south of I-80 right now.

 

Cell entering Peoria County has a nice 65 dBZ core over 25 kft.

 

 

 

Half dollar size hail with that cell.

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  On 6/7/2015 at 8:00 PM, nwohweather said:

Cell south of Joliet looks pretty good. Damn good environment it is in, expect it to become our first Tornado Warning of the day

Sent from my iPhone

 

Looks to be trying to develop a RFD from KLOT.

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  On 6/7/2015 at 8:17 PM, cyclone77 said:

85/73 here with mostly full sun.  CF to the northwest is trying to get something going.  Nice row of thunderheads off to the northwest.

 

I wouldn't sleep on the cold front itself, those trailing boundaries can have a few surprises from time to time.

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  On 6/7/2015 at 8:10 PM, IthielZ said:

Everything broke up before it made it here to Detroit. Mostly cloudy but with a few peeks of sun, 81 with a 65 dew.

 

Some garden variety stuff has developed just to the WSW. 

 

Maybe we can still at least get some cracks of thunder and lightning.

 

I was outside earlier this afternoon and you could really feel the inflow of warm air/moisture. 

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