StudentOfClimatology Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 So much for a prolonged cool down..EPS, NAEFS, and the bias corrected GEFS all have us above avg in the aggregated 5-10 day avg, continuing thereafter. The standard GEFS keeps us below avg, but it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 ^ I didn't say prolonged cool down. It's a dry down. Source region from the NW. 80's and reasonable dews. I don't see a string of +10's anywhere on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 That post wasn't directed at you, sorry if it came off that way. I'm not sure I'd consider it a dry down either w/ higher heights off the coast & to our North? From what I know, that usually leads to SW flow in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Going camping this weekend. I need some clear skies and dry air from Friday evening through Sunday morning. Make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Going camping this weekend. I need some clear skies and dry air from Friday evening through Sunday morning. Make it so. Indeed...if for no other reason than sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 9,600. Lowest elevation in the main part of the county is 8,700. The Garmin reads 9255 elevation in front of sons place. The valley below the dam in Silverthorne heading towards Kremmling averages under 9K, rest of county is 9K-14K. I disagree with those saying it is boring weather wise after the snow. It can rain in late summer almost daily, there are HUGE temp swings when it is dry and it CAN snow almost any month. I have been there for all the seasons (including mud) and I am hooked. Now, as a courtesy....it is cloudy and 64 out there, warmest it has been all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 So much for a prolonged cool down..EPS, NAEFS, and the bias corrected GEFS all have us above avg in the aggregated 5-10 day avg, continuing thereafter. The standard GEFS keeps us below avg, but it's an outlier. Getting an anomalously cool and damp period now due the the low to the south and the high to the NE. Who said we were in for a prolonged cool down? And there is certainly nothing out of the ordinary showing up in the next 10 days on the guidance. When is it not typically above average in June for this area? Nothing really oppressive...no torching heat or sustained high DPs in the offing that I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Going camping this weekend. I need some clear skies and dry air from Friday evening through Sunday morning. Make it so. I'm hosting a baby shower for a coworker, need nice weather so 15 of us are not crammed into my house and get enjoy the yard instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 It will be next to impossible to get below average without easterly flow, it certainly won't come from Canada or a NW flow. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015060318&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=109.09090672642736 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Getting an anomalously cool and damp period now due the the low to the south and the high to the NE. Who said we were in for a prolonged cool down? And there is certainly nothing out of the ordinary showing up in the next 10 days on the guidance. When is it not typically above average in June for this area? Nothing really oppressive...no torching heat or sustained high DPs in the offing that I can see. I must be looking at some foreign guidance then. Both the EPS/ECM and GFS/GEFS are modeling upper 80s/low 90s next week w/ upper 60s/low 70s dews. Flow looks S/SW in the mid levels, weak/W in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 ^ I didn't say prolonged cool down. It's a dry down. Source region from the NW. 80's and reasonable dews. I don't see a string of +10's anywhere on the horizon. I think that is a bit of a humid pattern with a pos height anomaly to our NE. Days aren't too bad, but I think mins would be Above area wide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 I must be looking at some foreign guidance then. Both the EPS/ECM and GFS/GEFS are modeling upper 80s/low 90s next week w/ upper 60s/low 70s dews. Flow looks S/SW in the mid levels, weak/W in the upper levels. Yeah the GFS is abruptly turning away from earlier runs and toning down the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Daily rain totals updated: 6/1 - 1.27" 6/2 - 2.22" 6/3 - 0.32" 6/4 - 0.06" (so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 59 drizzle, quite chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Daily rain totals updated: 6/1 - 1.27" 6/2 - 2.22" 6/3 - 0.32" 6/4 - 0.06" (so far) I'm not even to an inch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 I had a serious rainer this AM. Pulled off .85" of rain! Lawn is green and growing fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 .12" for today, 1.36 for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 A fun temperature trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Lawn is Green and Growing, just mowed on Sunday, ready to mow again...........looking forward to 80 with low humidity at some point again soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 AC hasn't kicked on here since late Monday. Just wish it came w sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 .14" since midnight. just on / off light drizzle. Gorgeous 59F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 A fun temperature trace. temp.JPG yeah, mine is pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 0.55" here in Oak Hill since midnight. Very light drizzle most of the day. Great day to do yard work (when the alternative is probably 85, sunny and humid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 0.55" here in Oak Hill since midnight. Very light drizzle most of the day. Great day to do yard work (when the alternative is probably 85, sunny and humid) Wait-- when did you move here? Are you working for LWX now? Weather post: That 4 F temp spread at IAD yesterday has got to be one of the lower ones on record, especially for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Wait-- when did you move here? Are you working for LWX now? A few weeks ago. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Another downpour. This week is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Anyone else cold? At least my AC gets a rest I guess. Comfortable. Third straight day the AC hasn't kicked on and it doesn't look like it'll have to work hard until next week. I'd like sun but can't complain the temps for june. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Anyone else cold? At least my AC gets a rest I guess.I can't believe I'm wearing long sleeves in June. Kinda nice. My garden has slowed in growth. Other than that, I'm cool with it.Rain seems to be moving in. Temp 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Hopefully the Euro/EPS are overdoing the GOA ridge, because this is a pretty nasty/humid pattern being modeled for day 5-10 and it gets worse during the day 10-15 range, subsequently. 500mb heights scream SW flow east of the Mississippi. Obviously things get a bit washed out in the Day 10-15 range, but the GOA ridge signal is strong, which typically teleconnects to a SE ridge. 500mb Corresponding 850mb temps..obviously washed out quite a bit at day 10-15, but the fact that there's warmth everywhere suggests that wherever that geopotential height rise is located, it'll be quite warm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 0.55" here in Oak Hill since midnight. Very light drizzle most of the day. Great day to do yard work (when the alternative is probably 85, sunny and humid) whoa...you live here? Welcome to the land of the heartbreaking bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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