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June Obs and Daily Disco


H2O

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GEFS and the NAEFS have both caved to the EPS suite now on the WPAC tropical forcing next week. Niño analogs featuring medium-frequency WPAC forcing (seasonally filtered) almost unanimously agree with the idea of a +PNA/eastern trough response, lasting about two weeks. So, I think the idea of legitimate troughing/lower dewpoints from late next week into early July has merit.

The one wild card during the latter stages of this transition would be a retrogression of the ridge into the GOA, which is what occurs in the years where the MJO signal fades or degrades into more of a higher frequency CCKW signal. If that occurs, the trough probably backs west into the Plains, with a subsequent (mild) SE ridging response taking place sometime in early July.

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Picked up a whopping .09" from a storm just after midnight.  Lightning to my south and north, which at closest was 1 mile away, indicates the bulk of it split around me.  .09".  smh.

 

After Saturday, there will be many parts of the area challenging all-time June rain totals.  My monthly total now up to a laughable 1.95"

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