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June Obs and Daily Disco


H2O

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The next 5 days look pretty darn wet overall. The cutoff to the south is going to pump warm/moist air over top of the shallow cooler air once the front finally gets south of us so warm stormy looks to be replaced with relatively cool rainy. The only area that looks to remain dry is OKV.

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The next 5 days look pretty darn wet overall. The cutoff to the south is going to pump warm/moist air over top of the shallow cooler air once the front finally gets south of us so warm stormy looks to be replaced with relatively cool rainy. The only area that looks to remain dry is OKV.

 

LOL.  Good one.  

 

.....but probably true.

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Got some serous rain early this morning. One t-storm came through at 1:30AM with heavy rain and very close lightning strikes. There was some small hail too, but no wind. Then another storm rolled through at 3:30AM with torrential rain and legit thunder/lightning.

 

The rain total since midnight is 1.39", and the Hi-Res NAM shows 4"+ this evening lol.

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   yes.   and flash flood guidance around here generally shows 3-3.5" of rain in 3 hours to cause flash flooding.   Localized amounts in that range certainly seem possible in this high PW environment with hi-res guidance showing training potential.

 

It is for Flash Flooding. Torrential rainfall over a short period of time. 2 inches in an hour can flood certain area roads
around here.

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May featured a crazy stable trough in the SW and persistent low height anomaly near GL and the north ATL. Naturally we ridged out with plenty of humidity in that regime. OTOH- the intermountain west was quite chilly and snowy. Arapahoe Basin along the divide in CO picked up nearly 5 feet of snow during May. 

 

Kind of a bummer that we could never build heights in the west underneath the beastly -EPO ridge or we would have had some seriously nice weather. No biggie though.The persistent ridge in the west couldn't last forever (although it tried). IMO- May was more of a rubber band snap month vs some sort of long term pattern change. That's why I don't think we are going to roast out this summer. Just a guess. There's no telling where we go through late June into July. Nino climo is a smart call for lack of any other strong signals. Matt's summer outlook is pretty solid. 

 

Here's how May shaped up in the NH:

 

compday.COi8QHs_YQ.gif

 

 

Things are reshuffling a bit as we move past the first week of June. Ens guidance is remarkably similar for 10 day leads. Looking about as likely as you can get at long leads to predict a nice shot or 2 of low dew/continental air. Stalled boundaries could screw it up of course but the look implies that any stalled boundary would be a good bit south of us. Ens have had this look for at least the last 3 days and the signal is getting stronger as we move forward in time:

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_sd_nhem_41.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_sd_nhem_11.png

 

 

Does this type of pattern persist? Pretty doubtful. I would expect the conus to move towards a less amplified summer type look as the month wears on. Last July was rare. But I'm looking forward to the potential for a real break from the soupy air. Most of us have forgotten what dry air actually feels like. haha

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So that's what all the rumbling I hear is....

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-242 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BALTIMORE AND NORTHEASTERNBALTIMORE CITY COUNTIES...AT 242 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER DUNDALK...OR NEARSPARROWS POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...SPARROWS POINT...NORTH POINT STATE PARK...MILLERS ISLAND...BACKRIVER...MIDDLE RIVER...DUNDALK...ESSEX...BOWLEYS QUARTERS...EASTPOINT...EDGEMERE...FORT HOWARD...TURNERS STATION AND MARTIN STATEAIRPORT.TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSELOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
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