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June 2015 Observation Thread


Isopycnic

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I had a glimmer of hope for about 12 hours a few days ago.  Both Canadian and the GFS had a wet weekend.  That's why you shouldn't pay attention to individual model runs.

 

Next 10 days

 

If we shouldn't pay attention to individual model runs, then why should we put any stock in the image from an individual model run that you used in this post?  It has just as much of a chance to be correct as the one from a few days ago, by that logic.

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If we shouldn't pay attention to individual model runs, then why should we put any stock in the image from an individual model run that you used in this post?  It has just as much of a chance to be correct as the one from a few days ago, by that logic.

 

I'm talking about the one run where it showed something completely different than that and had us receiving a good bit of rainfall.  The Canadian showed this as well for that particular run.  It's been consistent with the minimum over my area ever since then.

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Looks like they've backed up the best chances for precip 24 hours... today's 40% chance is now 20%, and best severe possibilities are now Thur/Fri instead of Wed/Thur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ANDEVENING HOURS EACH DAY AS WELL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILLBECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STORMS ONTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH A MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDSAND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. 
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Storms firing and drifting to basically the same areas today as yesterday in the upstate. Looks like another day with no rain.

From GSP:

MODEL PROGS OF WIDESPREAD SMALL CELLS DEVELOPING JUST LOOKS

OVERDONE. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASICALLY EAST OF I-26.

We got about a 10% chance of getting hit by that storm, unless it makes more storms as it drifts our way! It's a severe storm, so maybe outflows fire some more!?

Edit: looks like it's headed for Shetley! :(

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We got about a 10% chance of getting hit by that storm, unless it makes more storms as it drifts our way! It's a severe storm, so maybe outflows fire some more!?

Edit: looks like it's headed for Shetley! :(

 

It's taking almost exactly the same path as yesterday.  It's going to get close enough to make me think I'm going to get something then either take the last second jog south or just fizzle out.  Guaranteed.

 

Edit:  There is that same jog east as yesterday too give me hope.  Now I've just got to wait for the rain shields to kick in.  :whistle:

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Well, it's raining, but it's another pathetic storm that is going downhill as soon as it gets to me.  I just don't understand why every storm that gets close to me does this.  Everything is always on the downswing when it gets here.  I guess it's something though.  I even heard a couple rumbles of thunder which is impressive for this year.

 

Wq0XjZX.gif

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The 18z GFS says that our 50-70% pops for Sat are wrong. Maybe they should be 20% at best in upstate SC. I'll be shocked if we are not in the abnormally dry region when the drought monitor updates tomorrow. We will probably at least be in severe drought by summers' end.

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