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June 2015 Observation Thread


Isopycnic

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Upstate SC, Where storms come to die.  Figures as soon as I start looking at the radar everything starts falling apart.  Even when I get rain almost every storm is on a downward trend by the time it hits.  I'm hoping I get to witness at least 1 decent storm this year, but recently that's about as likely as getting a few inches of snow.  We are in one boring *** weather rut here in Spartanburg.

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Anyone catch the Auroras overnight? This was on Brad P's FB page... taken early this morning in N. Georgia...

Tyler-Penland-DSC00030_1435045945_lg.jpg

 

Would have been tough through the haze....I am on nights this week so I went out and looked but all I saw was hazy stars.....at least I will be asleep all day today and not have to go out in the heat.

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10:00 AM

.HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 700 PM FOR POINTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 1. TO THE EAST OF HERE...MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND THUS THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES. THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHICH WE WILL MONITOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS
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10:00 AM

.HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 700 PM FOR POINTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 1. TO THE EAST OF HERE...MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND THUS THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES. THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL WHICH WE WILL MONITOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

 

Right on Hwy 1, so we'll see what happens.

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WxSouth
5 mins · 

An outflow boundary and weak front may get activated near the Ohio River and Midatlantic this afternoon and overnight, sending a broken line of convection south, southeast toward the Apps. This is a process that will be repeated 2 or 3 more times the next few days, each line capable of dropping further south and southwest ward into the Southeast States.

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Pulse storms beginning to fire in the extreme N Upstate.  Once again HRRR has a line of convection moving through eastern upstate.  Then again it has shown convection over me most days this month.  Not the most reliable model for mby right now.  Last tuesday was one of the few days it had me dry and I ended up getting rain.  Generally speaking I don't normally do well with the pulse storms.  After starting the month with 4" of rain everything is already crunchy again.  Only 4 more months of hell, then I get to look forward to how this winter is going to top the last 2 winter's screw jobs.

 

Edit:  One storm moving through Spartanburg at the moment.  Looks like it's going to be another close miss though.  There's still time however, maybe it takes a little jog east in my favor.  It's ridiculous how many near misses I have

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Pulse storms beginning to fire in the extreme N Upstate.  Once again HRRR has a line of convection moving through eastern upstate.  Then again it has shown convection over me most days this month.  Not the most reliable model for mby right now.  Last tuesday was one of the few days it had me dry and I ended up getting rain.  Generally speaking I don't normally do well with the pulse storms.  After starting the month with 4" of rain everything is already crunchy again.  Only 4 more months of hell, then I get to look forward to how this winter is going to top the last 2 winter's screw jobs.

 

Edit:  One storm moving through Spartanburg at the moment.  Looks like it's going to be another close miss though.  There's still time however, maybe it takes a little jog east in my favor.  It's ridiculous how many near misses I have

No storms here, but this weeks heatwave is not living up to previous forecasts. In and out sun and 94F.

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Dark cloud on the horizon, but no thunder at all.  Looks like it's going to be another thunderless storm.  There is a little development further east, but it prob won't be enough to hit me.

 

Edit:  Poof and redevelopment back west as soon as I thought we had a shot.  5 drops of rain.  Not surprised at all since this happens almost every time.  Always bet on the rain missing no matter what the radar looks like.  I can't ever remember a period where there as been as little thunder as there is right now.  HRRR not even close yet again.

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How does it look for us? What could we get to fire up some storms?

 

We've got nearly 3000 j/kg of SB and ML Cape with LIs around -7.  NWS Raleigh thinks the best chance for storms will be in the NW piedmont, although they do mention that the Triangle area has a shot until around midnight or so.  We'll see.  If you loop the NWS radar, you can see a boundary of some sort drifting slowly eastward, bisecting Wake Co.  Don't know what that is or if it will be a focus for storms, but we'll see.

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Extreme instability in eastern NC.  >5500 j/kg SBCape, >4000 j/kg MLCape, LI of -10, and 900 j/kg Cape in the hail zone.  Wow.

 

yep and nothing will happen for the majority of us.....maybe a few rogue cells along the coastal areas late as the sea breeze finally gets moving after being pinned to the beach all day.....the heat index has been 105 or better non stop since 11 am peaked at 110....

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The 12z GFS says upstate SC can forget about much rain for the next 2 weeks. It sure looks like it'll be a 1993 like summer in this area.

 

I had a glimmer of hope for about 12 hours a few days ago.  Both Canadian and the GFS had a wet weekend.  That's why you shouldn't pay attention to individual model runs.

 

Next 10 days

 

gfs_apcpn_seus_40.png

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I had a glimmer of hope for about 12 hours a few days ago. Both Canadian and the GFS had a wet weekend. That's why you shouldn't pay attention to individual model runs.

Next 10 days

gfs_apcpn_seus_40.png

That looks amazing! Kind of like being in the bullseye of a GFS snowstorm , 10 days out!

We miss all the good stuff, the one storm that fired about 2-3 miles from me, has had 1" hail reported already! :(

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The 12z GFS says upstate SC can forget about much rain for the next 2 weeks. It sure looks like it'll be a 1993 like summer in this area.

Its already been 22 days since ive seen measurable rain. God, this sucks and that model looks horrible too.

 

Edit: What in the heck is this wet stuff falling out of the sky? The one piece of good news is its the 240hr 12Z GFS. 

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