Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Can't decide if it wants to storm here or not. Sun is out, hearing some loud thunder, a big gust of wind with rain for a minute, and then it stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Our severe storm for today was pretty disappointing. We managed to eek out .23" from it with only marginal lightning and very little wind, 1 gust up to maybe 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Maybe it's my imagination, but looking at the radar trends over the past 30 minutes to an hour it appears as though the cells over the mountains and Piedmont of NC jumped north pretty quickly and in some ways became less organized, rather than continuing to move on a more easterly, squall-like trajectory like they had been. Does anyone know why this might be? (I'm looking at you downeast!) Edit: I also noticed the storms on the coastal plain seemed to diminish fairly quickly as well. A lot of it has to do with the flow around the rems of Bill as far as the storms moving northward some......the last few nights didn't get going good till after dark so who knows.....the latest HiRes runs don't really do it though mostly from Raleigh north through the NE corner of NC over the next 3-5 hrs.....there are boundries on radar west and east of the Triangle so anything can still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 A lot of it has to do with the flow around the rems of Bill as far as the storms moving northward some......the last few nights didn't get going good till after dark so who knows.....the latest HiRes runs don't really do it though mostly from Raleigh north through the NE corner of NC over the next 3-5 hrs.....there are boundries on radar west and east of the Triangle so anything can still happen. Thanks for the answer! It just got really dark here and I'm hearing some thunder so I think you're right about those boundaries trying to make something happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Just had a 30 second shower while the sun was shining. It evaporated as quick as it was falling. Did get a pic of a partial double rainbow it left in it's wake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Looks like one last gasp for us with that broken line of showers west of Fayetteville. Of course they have been saying all day that the best action would be in the NE corner of the state up into VA. There's been a couple tor warnings up in the DC area this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Worst presentation of storms in the last 3 days and under a STW. Do we even know how to forecast weather anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 And of course it has been a dud here when we have the watch. Nothing but a couple of rumbles of thunder. And we had storms the previous three nights when there were not any watches. It has been that way the last two years. We have storms when there isn't a watch, and nothing at all here when we do have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Worst presentation of storms in the last 3 days and under a STW. Do we even know how to forecast weather anymore? LOL. You were typing that at the exact same time of my previous post. They have been awful with regards to this the last couple of years. It is getting just as bad as when it comes to winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Well, I might have spoken too soon. Thundering here again. Right about the time we got the storms the previous three nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Big storm in downtown Raleigh. Whoa! Lots of wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The bottom half of that line washed out. Wake Co. wins tonight. We're shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 The bottom half of that line washed out. Wake Co. wins tonight. We're shut out. Not all of Wake County. Looks like this one is going to miss me to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 RDU INTL AIRPORT REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AT 828 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Just got a special statement for a strong storm headed this way. I guess I just need to be patient. It ain't over until it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Well, maybe it is over. Still nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 : ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DOWNBURST AT NWS RALEIGH AT 845 PM EDT. POWER FLASH ALSO OBSERVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Not all of Wake County. Looks like this one is going to miss me to the east. I was at Boxcar playing video games and looked out and the trees were bent way over. Lots of lightening too. Will have to see if it rained at the house.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Another severe thunderstorm warning for Wake that is going to miss me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I was at Boxcar playing video games and looked out and the trees were bent way over. Lots of lightening too. Will have to see if it rained at the house.... Yep, not a drop at the house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Feels like getting a watch is the kiss of death for getting any storms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Officially a trace, but only because I felt it... not enough to even collect in the funnel, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 officially a Trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Already 77.5. Going to be a hot one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wow Nam 4km showing cape values of +4500 j/kg over Mcdowell Co. in WNC tonight out in front of a potential MCS. Don't think I have every seen cape showing up that high in that area. Could be interesting late tonight but MCS's struggle to make it through the mountains on avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 Wow Nam 4km showing cape values of +4500 j/kg over Mcdowell Co. in WNC tonight out in front of a potential MCS. Don't think I have every seen cape showing up that high in that area. Could be interesting late tonight but MCS's struggle to make it through the mountains on avg. HRRR has a derecho dropping SSE tonight but it looks worse east of the mts I am not even sure you can get cape that high in the mts lol...... HRRR basically just shows a broken line of storms firing and dying along the outflow over and over again, not to organized or scary looking in NC....in fact we got no pops for rain today or tonight here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 HRRR has a derecho dropping SSE tonight but it looks worse east of the mts I am not even sure you can get cape that high in the mts lol...... HRRR basically just shows a broken line of storms firing and dying along the outflow over and over again, not to organized or scary looking in NC....in fact we got no pops for rain today or tonight here. Yeah typically we just get some good lightning from these type systems and thats about it. It looks like it pretty much goes poof after it hits the Apps which makes since given the history. I read somewhere that only around 30% of MCS's/derecho's make it through the mountains here. I think the NAM 4km is broken haha because I agree, I don't think you can get that high of CAPE in the mountains ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I just took a look at the HRRR just for the heck of it even though we had no pops. There is a cluster that makes it to the SC/NC border at Spartanburg County, but never makes it into the upstate. Cape is about half of what it was the past 2 days right now. The GFS and Canadian models are showing a wetter and cooler period around next weekend. Hoping that verifies after what will probably be the hottest week of the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 I just took a look at the HRRR just for the heck of it even though we had no pops. There is a cluster that makes it to the SC/NC border at Spartanburg County, but never makes it into the upstate. Cape is about half of what it was the past 2 days right now. The GFS and Canadian models are showing a wetter and cooler period around next weekend. Hoping that verifies after what will probably be the hottest week of the last 3 years!. FYP! Looking forward to wetter times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 21, 2015 Share Posted June 21, 2015 HRRR is dropping the MCS a little further south each run. 15z shows a cluster of storms firing on top of me. Something to keep an eye and see if it keeps trending this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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