Disc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Great photos, Shaggy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Had some beautiful storms moved just east of me here in Orlando. Man the storms down here put out some serious lightning. Never took a direct hit but the storms were within a couple of miles. Made for an incredible sunset and some crazy mammatus. Good shots, Shaggy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 A friend that lives in Orlando posted this pic from there on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 A friend that lives in Orlando posted this pic from there on facebook. Was an amazing sunset down here tonight in Orlando. Pics can never do those kinds of sunsets justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Bone dry and 85! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Captured this beauty around 8pm tonight near Hatteras, NC. Friend of mine was also getting a shot as well in the picture. Awesome structure and a great end to a great day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Captured this beauty around 8pm tonight near Hatteras, NC. Friend of mine was also getting a shot as well in the picture. Awesome structure and a great end to a great day! Great shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Had some nice scud and a possible funnel (couldn't tell due to the distance) today just east of Asheville. Nice shots Shaggy & Millville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Great shotThanks Shaggy. Those mammatus in the sunset were spectacular shots as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Great night to sit on the screened-in porch and drink some beer. Listening to the rain drip off the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 IF the Hi Res models where right earlier then there should be a cluster of storms that extends from Raleigh to the south that forms up and drifts east over my neck of the woods by 10-12ish, there has been no storms here all day so the atmosphere hasn't been worked over yet in fact its 88 with a 77 DP at 8pm with a heat index of 100 ugh. Hi Res nailed it, been storming good here for a hr so it started right around 10 and it's still going now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Havent really been paying attention to the track of the remnants of TS bill but this morning I peeked at the radar and lo and behold there he is churning up through KY. Certainly looks like we could get rain from this across the carolinas but maybe not further south. Is this thing headed to PA or VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Could be a rough afternoon/evening in the mid-Atlantic states, including the Northern tier counties of NC. Northern counties are in the 'slight risk', while all of NC, the upstate of SC and NE Georgia are in a 'marginal risk' REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL PROGRESS ACROSS KY INTO WV DURING THE DAY AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER WLY FLOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS 30KT+ 500MB SWLY FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS ERN TN INTO VA. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE WITH PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP/INTENSIFY BY MID DAY ACROSS THIS REGION AS ANY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WITH TIME WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO VA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO THIS EVOLUTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHEAR INCREASES IN LOWEST 3KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 .02" yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 0.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Could be a rough afternoon/evening in the mid-Atlantic states, including the Northern tier counties of NC. Northern counties are in the 'slight risk', while all of NC, the upstate of SC and NE Georgia are in a 'marginal risk' Yeah the high res NAM has this with a strong line of storms over the north half But then it goes poof along the southern end as the sun sets, not sure how it plays out if we can speed it up 3-6 hrs it will be a bigger threat.... .45" last night in the storms here so my June total is now 5.08" but 4.28" of that fell in the first week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 0.87" yesterday. Finally got one. First real storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I have a hard time believing the NAM 4k sometimes. I forget which run it was yesterday, but it had us getting 6+" in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I have a hard time believing the NAM 4k sometimes. I forget which run it was yesterday, but it had us getting 6+" in 3 hours. Basically, it is 4000 times more likely to be wrong than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Updated... ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING... T.D. BILL WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ENEWD TODAY AS IT IS PROGRESSIVELY ABSORBED INTO THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME PRESENT OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AT LEAST CORRIDORS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR. WHEN COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS...AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND PIEDMONT...TO 1500-2000+ J/KG ALONG TIDEWATER. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL AND/OR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 The HRRR also has two rounds of storms for NC today so we will see plenty of instability again today, but it should be more organized and less messy if the models are right...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 This does seem like it would be challenging for computer models to handle accurately due to the cyclone having already been one that separated from a TUTT and then gained enough tropical characteristics to be named; there was hardly a window of it being a tropical depression. It has very much maintained organization on land partially due to phasing, and i feel, partially because it is more of a hybrid system but less obviously so as others have been. It is hard to tell how the moisture and convection will behave dynamically today until it begins to form (which is happening now), just as yesterday it seemed like something different would happen, but the level of organization was very broad and sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 NC has pretty extreme instability around again today, once stuff gets going it should be rough....if a derecho forms in SW VA headed ESE we should see some impressive winds.....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Just looking at radar, this could be the upstate's day with regards to rain. Already a nice cluster of storms forming in NE Georgia and moving east. More storms are firing about 10 miles west of my location. HRRR and NAM haven't really picked up on anything like this though. Right now cape is between 2000 and 2500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Picked up .23" overnight. Currently 93, dew point 81. Yuck. Hope we get more storms this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 First storm missed me by a mile to the north. 2nd storm missed me by 5 miles to the south. Last night I had a storm form 1 mile to my east. Looks like I'm back into my screw job/mother nature taunting me pattern. We'll see if that cluster holds together that is entering SC. I don't know why, but storms for the past year just haven't been impressive at all. Even the rain we do get is rarely accompanied with any intense lightning or thunder. It's been a long time since I've seen a storm with any wow factor at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Just looking at radar, this could be the upstate's day with regards to rain. Already a nice cluster of storms forming in NE Georgia and moving east. More storms are firing about 10 miles west of my location. HRRR and NAM haven't really picked up on anything like this though. Right now cape is between 2000 and 2500.I don't like the trajectory of these storms. Looks like they are getting pulled N and E by Bills remnants and not building that far S or W? I'm gonna say S of 85 stays dry and Shetleys house gets that precious 1/2 inch he's always talking about!Edit: I might be wrong for once!? Line looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Really looks interesting for storms around here today. And this is what WRAL is showing. Guess their parameters are different. Another reason why I dislike the catagories used now for the severe storm chances. Either have slight or marginal, but not both. http://www.wral.com/weather/image/14727904/?ref_id=14727902 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Sitting here at a soccer camp in Salisbury watching the plumes just shoot up out of nowhere. Nice cell blossomed just to my south and is passing east of me now. More headed NE from CLT. Could be a bumpy afternoon for sure! Edit....the amount of wind feeding north into these cells is truly impressive. No gusting. It is a steady 15-20mph. Almost like a seabreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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