Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

June 2015 Observation Thread


Isopycnic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 906
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Had some beautiful storms moved just east of me here in Orlando. Man the storms down here put out some serious lightning. Never took a direct hit but the storms were within a couple of miles. Made for an incredible sunset and some crazy mammatus.

 

Good shots, Shaggy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IF the Hi Res models where right earlier then there should be a cluster of storms that extends from Raleigh to the south that forms up and drifts east over my neck of the woods by 10-12ish, there has been no storms here all day so the atmosphere hasn't been worked over yet in fact its 88 with a 77 DP at 8pm with a heat index of 100 ugh.

Hi Res nailed it, been storming good here for a hr so it started right around 10 and it's still going now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Havent really been paying attention to the track of the remnants of TS bill but this morning I peeked at the radar and lo and behold there he is churning up through KY. Certainly looks like we could get rain from this across the carolinas but maybe not further south. Is this thing headed to PA or VA?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could be a rough afternoon/evening in the mid-Atlantic states, including the Northern tier counties of NC. Northern counties are in the 'slight risk', while all of NC, the upstate of SC and NE Georgia are in a 'marginal risk'

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL PROGRESS ACROSS KY INTO WV   DURING THE DAY AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER WLY FLOW   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP   LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS   30KT+ 500MB SWLY FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS ERN TN INTO VA.  VERY MOIST   CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE   WITH PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD   EASILY DEVELOP/INTENSIFY BY MID DAY ACROSS THIS REGION AS ANY   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION.  GUSTY   WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES EARLY IN   THE PERIOD.  WITH TIME WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE   HIGHER TERRAIN INTO VA AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK IN   RESPONSE TO THIS EVOLUTION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR   PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES LATER IN THE   AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHEAR INCREASES IN LOWEST 3KM.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Could be a rough afternoon/evening in the mid-Atlantic states, including the Northern tier counties of NC. Northern counties are in the 'slight risk', while all of NC, the upstate of SC and NE Georgia are in a 'marginal risk'

 

Yeah the high res NAM has this with a strong line of storms over the north half

 

 

But then it goes poof along the southern end as the sun sets, not sure how it plays out if we can speed it up 3-6 hrs it will be a bigger threat....

 

 

 

.45" last night in the storms here so my June total is now 5.08" but 4.28" of that fell in the first week....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Updated...

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO   EVENING...   T.D. BILL WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ENEWD TODAY AS IT IS   PROGRESSIVELY ABSORBED INTO THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME   PRESENT OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MORNING   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AT LEAST CORRIDORS OF   STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR.  WHEN COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR   MASS...AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG OVER   THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND PIEDMONT...TO 1500-2000+ J/KG ALONG   TIDEWATER.   INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL   INCREASE IN TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH   TERRAIN WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT INTO   COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  STRENGTHENING VERTICAL   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL AND/OR A COUPLE   OF TORNADOES.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This does seem like it would be challenging for computer models to handle accurately

due to the cyclone having already been one that separated from a TUTT and then gained enough tropical characteristics to be named;

there was hardly a window of it being a tropical depression.  It has very much maintained organization on land partially due to phasing, and i feel, partially because it is more of a hybrid system but less obviously so as others have been.

 

It is hard to tell how the moisture and convection will behave dynamically today until it begins to form (which is happening now), just as yesterday it seemed like something different would happen, but the level of organization was very broad and sparse.

 

post-8089-0-91571800-1434815803_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looking at radar, this could be the upstate's day with regards to rain.  Already a nice cluster of storms forming in NE Georgia and moving east.  More storms are firing about 10 miles west of my location.  HRRR and NAM  haven't really picked up on anything like this though.  Right now cape is between 2000 and 2500.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First storm missed me by a mile to the north.  2nd storm missed me by 5 miles to the south.  Last night I had a storm form 1 mile to my east.  Looks like I'm back into my screw job/mother nature taunting me pattern.  We'll see if that cluster holds together that is entering SC.  I don't know why, but storms for the past year just haven't been impressive at all.  Even the rain we do get is rarely accompanied with any intense lightning or thunder.  It's been a long time since I've seen a storm with any wow factor at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looking at radar, this could be the upstate's day with regards to rain. Already a nice cluster of storms forming in NE Georgia and moving east. More storms are firing about 10 miles west of my location. HRRR and NAM haven't really picked up on anything like this though. Right now cape is between 2000 and 2500.

I don't like the trajectory of these storms. Looks like they are getting pulled N and E by Bills remnants and not building that far S or W? I'm gonna say S of 85 stays dry and Shetleys house gets that precious 1/2 inch he's always talking about!

Edit: I might be wrong for once!? Line looking good!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sitting here at a soccer camp in Salisbury watching the plumes just shoot up out of nowhere. Nice cell blossomed just to my south and is passing east of me now. More headed NE from CLT. Could be a bumpy afternoon for sure!

Edit....the amount of wind feeding north into these cells is truly impressive. No gusting. It is a steady 15-20mph. Almost like a seabreeze.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...