Brick Tamland Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I didn't think I would have any storms the last two nights. They were all around me, and finally got some good ones. The ones last night just seemed to blow up right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I didn't think I would have any storms the last two nights. They were all around me, and finally got some good ones. The ones last night just seemed to blow up right over me. Problem here is im too far south and west to get anything. Everything has been either in NC or upstate SC, or the Eastern and southeastern parts of the state. And everythings been moving from west to east which seems to be the driest area in the state,and we rarely get anything good here when storms move west to east. I ve given up on ever seeing rain here, and would be happy to see some good overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 1.66" yesterday. Had 1.22" in 15 minutes around 10-10:15pm. Saw some flooding in west durham while driving home from downtown durham. Look at the ridiculous Davis vp rain rates... +11" per hour? lol Capture.JPG Capture.JPG You just had more rain in 15 minutes than I have had since April 21st (1.18in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 You just had more rain in 15 minutes than I have had since April 21st (1.18in). I know the feeling. I really hate to sound like JShet, but i just don't see any rain for my area for probably at least the entire summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I know the feeling. I really hate to sound like JShet, but i just don't see any rain for my area for probably at least the entire summer. Wow all summer? What model is predicting that, I didn't see it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Wow all summer? What model is predicting that, I didn't see it.. J Shets. I am talking about my area, not the whole southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 That cell headed near Asheboro is nasty gonna be some wind and decent size hail with that one......there is a new cell firing to its NE that looks to head for the Triangle all of these storms should blow up fast but they are going to be prone to collapse since there isn't much shear to keep them going. Once they do look for new storms to fire on the gust fronts....Going to be a active afternoon again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 12z GFS says the I-85 corridor in NC and Will get less than .50 of rain over the next 16 days and it brought back the 105 plus heat too. Thankfully the mountains are getting rain, or we would start to look like Cal. soon enough. I would expect D4 drought from GSP to GSO by the end of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 under thermodynamics Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The 12z GFS says the I-85 corridor in NC and Will get less than .50 of rain over the next 16 days and it brought back the 105 plus heat too. Thankfully the mountains are getting rain, or we would start to look like Cal. soon enough. I would expect D4 drought from GSP to GSO by the end of August. And the midlands north of I-20 too. Picked a bad year to start a garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 It's hot. Feels very CAPEy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 You just had more rain in 15 minutes than I have had since April 21st (1.18in). wow.. I had more rain in 15 minutes than I have gotten in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 It's hot. Feels very CAPEy out. I am a little surprised we haven't had more than a marginal risk the last few days, yesterday there where lots of storm damage reports from NC and today the stage is set for a repeat...again that cell just south of Asheboro is flat nasty and to top it off its starting to rotate a bit, and it looks like the line NW of the Triad is in a bit of shear and looks to be organizing some so the triad and to its north are gonna get hammered here in a hr or so.....and that line might actually become a squall that makes it to the coast if the hi res models are right. Any storms that fire between now and say 7-8 will almost all be borderline or better severe as far as wind potential goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I am a little surprised we haven't had more than a marginal risk the last few days, yesterday there where lots of storm damage reports from NC and today the stage is set for a repeat...again that cell just south of Asheboro is flat nasty and to top it off its starting to rotate a bit, and it looks like the line NW of the Triad is in a bit of shear and looks to be organizing some so the triad and to its north are gonna get hammered here in a hr or so.....and that line might actually become a squall that makes it to the coast if the hi res models are right. Any storms that fire between now and say 7-8 will almost all be borderline or better severe as far as wind potential goes.... I said it in the pattern thread, but I think the new severe outlook paramiters are too complicated. Get rid of the marginal and just call it slight. There is one too many parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I am a little surprised we haven't had more than a marginal risk the last few days, yesterday there where lots of storm damage reports from NC and today the stage is set for a repeat...again that cell just south of Asheboro is flat nasty and to top it off its starting to rotate a bit, and it looks like the line NW of the Triad is in a bit of shear and looks to be organizing some so the triad and to its north are gonna get hammered here in a hr or so.....and that line might actually become a squall that makes it to the coast if the hi res models are right. Any storms that fire between now and say 7-8 will almost all be borderline or better severe as far as wind potential goes.... How's the CAPE/LI around here today? Can you easily tell? I'm on mobile and it won't load right, for some reason. I would like to get a little hail. It's been about 2-3 years since I've seen any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 GSP just upped us to 40% tonight, but based on radar trends I'm kind of doubting we get that kind of coverage. Every storm that pops up in the upstate is short lived and I don't see any outflow boundaries to trigger any new storms. Spartanburg has been the dead zone for convection the last couple days. Even the most promising looking storms on radar fall apart completely as they enter Spartanburg. What a miserable pattern we are in. I need to move because the weather here is awful. We only get a couple months out of the year where it is pleasant to be outside. Hot weather makes me grumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 How's the CAPE/LI around here today? Can you easily tell? I'm on mobile and it won't load right, for some reason. I would like to get a little hail. It's been about 2-3 years since I've seen any. Well this new map from SPC has got pretty colors on it and if I read it correctly it does suggest a better than average chance for severe hail today... I posted the SPC explanations of the map under it but I guess it means a pretty good chance of hail, I am sure that one near Asheboro has some big hail in it based on radar returns The SARS method returns a maximum expected hail report by matching existing environmental conditions to historic severe hail cases. These forecast maximum sizes are conditional on severe hail of any size occurring. This graphic shows two items: First, the color fill denotes the percent of matching analog soundings that had significant (2" diameter or larger) hail. Color fill starts at 50 percent. Second, the contours denote the actual number of matching cases for each grid point. Percentiles for the number of matches are based on a set of about 1200 severe hail cases. For example, a grid point that has over 100 matches suggests a "common" severe hail environment, while a grid point with 5 matches would suggest severe hail is unlikely. A high number of matches, combined with a high significant hail percentage would suggest significant hail is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Reports of quarter size hail in Randolph County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Thanks Downeast. We're in the blue area, so we'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Mesoscale discussion out for NC and SC, if we had a trigger like a upper level disturbance we would be in business today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Mesoscale discussion out for NC and SC, if we had a trigger like a upper level disturbance we would be in business today. Thats the problem. Lots of fuel, but no match to start the fire. Quite frankly, not expecting much of anything, especially in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 We finally got our much needed rain last night. Picked up .74". That brings us to 4.47" for the month. Currently it is hot and humid out. Temp is 93 with a 76 dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Thats the problem. Lots of fuel, but no match to start the fire. Quite frankly, not expecting much of anything, especially in SC. Yep...storms in western north carolina though are starting to congeal maybe they can generate a strong enough cold pool to sustain themselves and keep building as they head east; we'll have to see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 We finally got our much needed rain last night. Picked up .74". That brings us to 4.47" for the month. Currently it is hot and humid out. Temp is 93 with a 76 dew point. 93 over 73 HI 103 I got a few sprinkles last night as everything kinda went around me but was treated to one hell of a light show as it creeped by to the north and south,, hoping today makes up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Yep...storms in western north carolina though are starting to congeal maybe they can generate a strong enough cold pool to sustain themselves and keep building as they head east; we'll have to see though. Hi Res models have that they kinda gel over the Triangle then head ESE from there......gonna be crazy if the Triangle gets rain like they had yesterday again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Impressive storm coverage out west and the slow motions will lend to nice high rain totals..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 We are done with rain in most of SC right through the next 7-10 days though. Not even a 20% chance after tomorrow for most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 We are done with rain in most of SC right through the next 7-10 days though. Not even a 20% chance after tomorrow for most of the state. Not looking good. I thought there would be at least some coverage this afternoon, but there isn't a single storm in the upstate right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Hi Res models have that they kinda gel over the Triangle then head ESE from there......gonna be crazy if the Triangle gets rain like they had yesterday again today. Just have to be patient here like the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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