GaWx Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 ^ That BS isn't going to happen, folks. 113 at CHS? LMAO!!! It had 105-6 for today there and it won't be anywhere near that as I had said yesterday. There's a really bad hot bias that has been seen recently with the GFS: I don't know what has happened to the GFS at 2M but I fear it has fallen off its rocker in some cases. As of 18Z, the 12Z GFS had these: CHS prog 102; actual 96; ATL prog 99; actual 93 Beaufort, SC prog 102; actual 95 So, for these three cities, the 12Z GFS was a whopping 6-7 F too hot forecasting just 6 hours out!! that is atrocious! So, be cautious, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 TWC calling for 102 in CLT tomorrow ! Not on .com, but just put up a graphic on live tv! 104 for CAE! Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 TWC calling for 102 in CLT tomorrow ! Not on .com, but just put up a graphic on live tv! 104 for CAE! Good times! They change their forecasts more frequently than people change their socks. Thus far, temps haven't quite hit forecasted readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 ^ That BS isn't going to happen, folks. 113 at CHS? LMAO!!! It had 105-6 for today there and it won't be anywhere near that as I had said yesterday. There's a really bad hot bias that has been seen recently with the GFS: I don't know what has happened to the GFS at 2M but I fear it has fallen off its rocker in some cases. As of 18Z, the 12Z GFS had these: CHS prog 102; actual 96; ATL prog 99; actual 93 Beaufort, SC prog 102; actual 95 So, for these three cities, the 12Z GFS was a whopping 6-7 F too hot forecasting just 6 hours out!! that is atrocious! So, be cautious, folks. Thats the problem nowadays. People take models runs as gospel like they are actual forecasts. This has become a bigger problem since the media started showing model runs to the general public. We saw just how well models did this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Clown maps give us a little bit of hope that is soon dashed by reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Looks like we topped out at 96 here at GSO today. Lame. We suck at heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Well TX is looking at another 5-8" and locally 10" amounts! As we sit and bake in triple digits! This is so exciting, I'm staying up for the Euro run , just to see how hot it will get and how little rain we get the next 10 days! Who's in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Are El Nino summers typically associated with a lot of tropical activity ? It's only June 16 and we already have 2 named storms. The active 2005 season didn't have it's second named storm until June 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Are El Nino summers typically associated with a lot of tropical activity ? It's only June 16 and we already have 2 named storms. The active 2005 season didn't have it's second named storm until June 28. El Nino's tend to have a bit above normal June GOM activity. However, after June, overall activity tends to be below normal. These are just averages though. Any one El Niño season can differ greatly from the average El Niño season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Well TX is looking at another 5-8" and locally 10" amounts! As we sit and bake in triple digits! This is so exciting, I'm staying up for the Euro run , just to see how hot it will get and how little rain we get the next 10 days! Who's in? Most models have a good bit of the south with the chance for showers Wednesday-Saturday. That will cool things locally. I still maintain that the models don't have a good handle on the unfolding situation. If Bill slows down or the H to the north is a tad stronger at least mby is going to get some good rain out of this. As far as temps, I am only looking at the short range NMM & ARW for guidance. They have been nailinf it lately and I haven't seen anything above 102-103 on them for anyone. These clown maps being spit out in the long range are as delusional as the fantansy snowstorms we see all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Most models have a good bit of the south with the chance for showers Wednesday-Saturday. That will cool things locally. I still maintain that the models don't have a good handle on the unfolding situation. If Bill slows down or the H to the north is a tad stronger at least mby is going to get some good rain out of this. As far as temps, I am only looking at the short range NMM & ARW for guidance. They have been nailinf it lately and I haven't seen anything above 102-103 on them for anyone. These clown maps being spit out in the long range are as delusional as the fantansy snowstorms we see all winter. Agree this weekend could just as easily be cloudy/stormy with highs in the 80's versus "deathridge" heat........I suspect that mid 80's to mid 90's will be the range for most of us over the next 2 weeks.....today will be the hottest day for the SE in the entire period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Agree this weekend could just as easily be cloudy/stormy with highs in the 80's versus "deathridge" heat........I suspect that mid 80's to mid 90's will be the range for most of us over the next 2 weeks.....today will be the hottest day for the SE in the entire period. Yeah it will be interesting to see what Bill does with the current soil moisture in the plains. Mesoscale models are the only ones tuned to handle that type thing so we could see a lot of changes in the future with the GFS & Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yeah it will be interesting to see what Bill does with the current soil moisture in the plains. Mesoscale models are the only ones tuned to handle that type thing so we could see a lot of changes in the future with the GFS & Euro. What changes do you guys expect will take place? It looks like the models are in pretty good agreement with the remnants tracking to our north. Without major changes in the flow, outside of how Bill might or might not evolve, I don't see how that is going to change appreciably. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 What changes do you guys expect will take place? It looks like the models are in pretty good agreement with the remnants tracking to our north. Without major changes in the flow, outside of how Bill might or might not evolve, I don't see how that is going to change appreciably. Thoughts?I think it stays together longer and the high pressure that is modeled to set up north could possibly be stronger/more progressive. That will push the system further south. I mean this is still 4 days out and the models have had a hard time nailing anything in that time frame. I just think that there are a lot of unusual dynamics going into the model calc over the next few days so spurious solutions should be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I think it stays together longer and the high pressure that is modeled to set up north could possibly be stronger/more progressive. That will push the system further south. I mean this is still 4 days out and the models have had a hard time nailing anything in that time frame. I just think that there are a lot of unusual dynamics going into the model calc over the next few days so spurious solutions should be expected. Gotcha. Hope that comes to pass. We can use all the extra help we can get with creating rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 What changes do you guys expect will take place? It looks like the models are in pretty good agreement with the remnants tracking to our north. Without major changes in the flow, outside of how Bill might or might not evolve, I don't see how that is going to change appreciably. Thoughts? The models have varied with the high to the north and where it goes.......there is a northern stream low and how it interacts with Bills rems and the strength of that northern high could easily push this mess further south or create a bigger system that has more clouds/moisture and at the very least increase the chances of more widespread showers etc so that while still hot there will be plenty of places that see storms and rain to cool it off ion the afternoons IE more typical summer pattern versus strong heat ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Is Weather Underground dying a slow death under The Weather Channel? The PWS weather stations have not worked for several days. The temperature icons for any stations of any type no longer show on their web application or the mobile apps. Most of the NOAA Weather Radio stations no longer work. (Linville has been down for some time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Is Weather Underground dying a slow death under The Weather Channel? The PWS weather stations have not worked for several days. The temperature icons for any stations of any type no longer show on their web application or the mobile apps. Most of the NOAA Weather Radio stations no longer work. (Linville has been down for some time) The direct link to my station on Wunderground works, but I can't get to it from a map. I also have to refresh the page to get it to update -- Should be rapid fire and update itself every few seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The direct link to my station on Wunderground works, but I can't get to it from a map. I also have to refresh the page to get it to update -- Should be rapid fire and update itself every few seconds. Same here. Not sure what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Is Weather Underground dying a slow death under The Weather Channel? The PWS weather stations have not worked for several days. The temperature icons for any stations of any type no longer show on their web application or the mobile apps. Most of the NOAA Weather Radio stations no longer work. (Linville has been down for some time) The PWS data is now showing again on the maps as of 1:30pm I had put in a ticket yesterday but had not heard back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Who's ready for a road trip? Mount Washington: Tonight A 40 percent chance of showers before midnight. Patchy fog before 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 38. Very windy, with a northwest wind 35 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 49. Strong and damaging winds, with a north wind 55 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 The PWS data is now showing again on the maps as of 1:30pm I had put in a ticket yesterday but had not heard back Yep. Mine is back as well. Whatever it was they seem to have it fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Most models have a good bit of the south with the chance for showers Wednesday-Saturday. That will cool things locally. I still maintain that the models don't have a good handle on the unfolding situation. If Bill slows down or the H to the north is a tad stronger at least mby is going to get some good rain out of this. As far as temps, I am only looking at the short range NMM & ARW for guidance. They have been nailinf it lately and I haven't seen anything above 102-103 on them for anyone. These clown maps being spit out in the long range are as delusional as the fantansy snowstorms we see all winter. Thanks for the great post about the potential pattern. Way too much garbage being posted in the pattern discussion thread. its very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 Thanks for the great post about the potential pattern. Way too much garbage being posted in the pattern discussion thread. its very frustrating. I know, right! You'd think we were 3 days from a big snowstorm!? I think storm mode should be in effect for this mind boggling heat wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I know, right! You'd think we were 3 days from a big snowstorm!? I think storm mode should be in effect for this mind boggling heat wave! Well, we fail at heatwaves too. Failed to reach triple digits in Blythewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 So can we trust the models in the long range with regards to the heat, or do they just get snow wrong around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 So can we trust the models in the long range with regards to the heat, or do they just get snow wrong around here? It's not going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 It's not going to snow. Yea, the 850s are just a little too high for snow. Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Here you go Mack... in tonight's fantasy heat run you win, courtesy of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 Here you go Mack... in tonight's fantasy heat run you win, courtesy of the GFS. Atleast the heat bubble there is consistant! It keeps us rain in the winter and gives us a blast furnace in the summer! It's worse than Jonesville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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