jshetley Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 The 18z GFS has the hottest weather starting around day 6 so there is still some time for it to change, but it does seem to be showing up more consistently though, so this heat will probably happen. By the way it has rained here 2 straight days, but still not over .25 in any 24 hour period yet. The heavier stuff just does not want to come around here and after tomorrow, my rain chances are going away for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I do not like the looks of that I hate summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 I bet Shetley ends up closer to right than not by the time August is over. So you think its gonna be a 1993 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 The 18z GFS has the hottest weather starting around day 6 so there is still some time for it to change, but it does seem to be showing up more consistently though, so this heat will probably happen. By the way it has rained here 2 straight days, but still not over .25 in any 24 hour period yet. The heavier stuff just does not want to come around here and after tomorrow, my rain chances are going away for a while. About 2 weeks ago the GFS was trying to advertise a big heat wave and a couple days later we ended up with a weak closed-off low...so therefor, give me a couple more days (at least) before fully jumping on board. In general I have been a skeptic of the GFS number outputs for months now...and nothing has happened for me to change that feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 About 2 weeks ago the GFS was trying to advertise a big heat wave and a couple days later we ended up with a weak closed-off low...so therefor, give me a couple more days (at least) before fully jumping on board. In general I have been a skeptic of the GFS number outputs for months now...and nothing has happened for me to change that feeling. This one is the real deal, Euro is on board: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 This one is the real deal, Euro is on board: 12z GFS is still on board as well. Looks like the upstate and SE SC could be the hot spot winners: Day 5: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false But there will be many many runner ups... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Day 7: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 That looks like low 90s for much of Georgia ? That's pretty typical for mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 That looks like low 90s for much of Georgia ? That's pretty typical for mid June. Until day 7 then add another 5 degrees. It would be brutal (+100) for parts of western SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Until day 7 then add another 5 degrees. It would be brutal (+100) for parts of western SC and NC.Book it! They can't get a snow or rain or arctic blast right, 2 days out, but will lock onto 100s from 10 days out and nail it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Book it! They can't get a snow or rain or arctic blast right, 2 days out, but will lock onto 100s from 10 days out and nail it! All we can do is hope it's wrong; but in this case the heat shown at days 5 to 7 is the climax to the current heat buildup . So basically we are within the two days... Hour 52 (Day two): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=12&fhour=54¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 You know the weather is getting anemic when the long range forecast discussion (Thur-Tues) is only 2 paragraphs long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 That looks like low 90s for much of Georgia ? That's pretty typical for mid June. High 90's in GA on Tues (day 7)...95-101 across the state, then the GFS spit out widespread 100-102 on Sat of NEXT week so Day 10/11...heat...wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 High 90's in GA on Tues (day 7)...95-101 across the state, then the GFS spit out widespread 100-102 on Sat of NEXT week so Day 10/11...heat...wave... Hey Jon, Good to hear from you! I thought you only worked out of a wintertime refrigerator! Stay cool! GFS has us pushing over 100º - but we'll see. Best, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 HWO tonight from RAH... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S COUPLED WITH AHUMID AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES 98-102 EACH AFTERNOONFRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 HWO tonight from RAH... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S COUPLED WITH AHUMID AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES 98-102 EACH AFTERNOONFRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Sucks but its the price we pay for living in the SE, hopefully we only get a few weeks like the one coming up....honestly though I prefer the 100 degree stuff cause its usually dry so its 100 with a heat index of 102 versus low 90's with a heat index of 114.....the upside is you can get some killer thunderstorms in these setups...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Good news and bad news: Good - 6z GFS looks like it backed off just a little on temps in the medium range. Bad - But the heat looks to last way out into the extended range (..maybe some relief in the fantasy period). So basically get ready for a long period of 90s... Day 10 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=06&fhour=252¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Looks like the shetleyridge is going to set up as a perma-feature over the southeast this summer. Should effectively cap the atmosphere and keep us hot and humid. Hopefully, everyone's AC units are in good working order! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Looks like the shetleyridge is going to set up as a perma-feature over the southeast this summer. Should effectively cap the atmosphere and keep us hot and humid. Hopefully, everyone's AC units are in good working order! We're southern folk, so we should be ready...Three months of Hot! Hot! Hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 I hate summer. Ugghh, likewise!! GSP has not been higher than 95 since July 28 2012. Looks like that streak will come to an end here over the next week. I really hope the GFS is overdoing the heat again - maybe we'll get lower 90s or some upper 80s, but I doubt it. It just feels like the hammer is about to be dropped and it's not even summer yet You guys in WNC enjoy your "mild" summer (Boone looks better and better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Sucks but its the price we pay for living in the SE, hopefully we only get a few weeks like the one coming up....honestly though I prefer the 100 degree stuff cause its usually dry so its 100 with a heat index of 102 versus low 90's with a heat index of 114.....the upside is you can get some killer thunderstorms in these setups...... Probably will just be hot and dry. This has to be the worst year in a long time for thunderstorms around here. I know eastern NC had some last night, but I am talking just for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Probably will just be hot and dry. This has to be the worst year in a long time for thunderstorms around here. I know eastern NC had some last night, but I am talking just for the Triangle. Amazing the differences. Here in Easley we have had a parade of storms with some incredible downpours. I am close to 10 inches over the past couple of weeks. Everything is soaking and soppy. Decks, yard, and driveway are a MESS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Probably will just be hot and dry. This has to be the worst year in a long time for thunderstorms around here. I know eastern NC had some last night, but I am talking just for the Triangle. my backyard. FYP, I've had some great thunderstorms this spring/summer so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 FYP, I've had some great thunderstorms this spring/summer so far... How many? I can recall two, maybe three good storms at best for my house this whole year. Most of the time if we have had any storms it is usually one rumble of thunder and an hour of rain at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Amazing the differences. Here in Easley we have had a parade of storms with some incredible downpours. I am close to 10 inches over the past couple of weeks. Everything is soaking and soppy. Decks, yard, and driveway are a MESS! And I am 5 miles away and maybe 1 inch. Rain dome engaged imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Looks like the shetleyridge is going to set up as a perma-feature over the southeast this summer. Should effectively cap the atmosphere and keep us hot and humid. Hopefully, everyone's AC units are in good working order! So you're saying Shetley been right all along. Guess its time to serve some fried crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 So you're saying Shetley been right all along. Guess its time to serve some fried crow. He is going to probably not going to be too far off base over the next couple of weeks at least. If it's still bleak after that, then yeah, get the crow cooker out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 It looks as if the 6z GFS is backing off slightly on the heat and definitely shows more rain over the southeast over the next 2 weeks. Temps barely reach 100 now in the Carolina's and in only a small area. Hopefully this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 It looks as if the 6z GFS is backing off slightly on the heat and definitely shows more rain over the southeast over the next 2 weeks. Temps barely reach 100 now in the Carolina's and in only a small area. Hopefully this trend continues.I thought the Euro was showing the crazy heat!? Hopefully it's wrong too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 I thought the Euro was showing the crazy heat!? Hopefully it's wrong too! It looks as if the 6z GFS is backing off slightly on the heat and definitely shows more rain over the southeast over the next 2 weeks. Temps barely reach 100 now in the Carolina's and in only a small area. Hopefully this trend continues. Yeah the Euro is still holding on to some heat at day 10 but I don't have surface maps anymore, cancelled wxbell for now to save $$ but from what I can tell day 10 is still hot based on 500mb...But as of now you're right the latest GFS backed off the heat, still can see 95 degree days throught this stretch although it's not as amped as it once was on both models. The west is winning! So far it looks good, reminds me why I don't try and forecast heat, it's like forecasting a trough during winter exept much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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