Brick Tamland Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Looks like all the storms are missing the Triangle to the east and west. Good thing is my son got to play his baseball game tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 I have enjoyed my 0.98 inch of rainfall I've picked up so far today. About to get another quarter inch in this next batch on my doorstep. Can't wait until I pick up even more rain tomorrow and pretty much every day this week. It's amazing how big of a swing this has been weatherwise: I went from 3+ weeks without a drop to almost daily rainfall for the past week and for the foreseeable future. GSP has been all over this new pattern. The paid professionals have done a fantastic job getting this one right. I see no reason to doubt their expertise going forward seeing as how their track record has been pretty stellar lately. They got the dry right and now they've gotten the wet right. Kudos, isohume (and your colleagues)! Kudos to the Mets....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 I have enjoyed my 0.98 inch of rainfall I've picked up so far today. About to get another quarter inch in this next batch on my doorstep. Can't wait until I pick up even more rain tomorrow and pretty much every day this week. It's amazing how big of a swing this has been weatherwise: I went from 3+ weeks without a drop to almost daily rainfall for the past week and for the foreseeable future. GSP has been all over this new pattern. The paid professionals have done a fantastic job getting this one right. I see no reason to doubt their expertise going forward seeing as how their track record has been pretty stellar lately. They got the dry right and now they've gotten the wet right. Kudos, isohume (and your colleagues)! That low is going to be too far east after tonight though. There will be small chances tomorrow and the zero after that until Sunday. The upper low needs to go south instead of east to keep the wet pattern some folks are seeing going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 That low is going to be too far east after tonight though. There will be small chances tomorrow and the zero after that until Sunday. The upper low needs to go south instead of east to keep the wet pattern some folks are seeing going. Local mets showing daily chances as well. Still pouring outside with lots of thuinder and lightning. can barely see the trees behind us its coming down so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 That low is going to be too far east after tonight though. There will be small chances tomorrow and the zero after that until Sunday. The upper low needs to go south instead of east to keep the wet pattern some folks are seeing going. Allow me to once again defer to the paid mets and their analysis. Here's what they had to say this afternoon about the upper low: TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS FCST TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER WEAK BUT PERSISTENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE...A 1025 MB SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACRS NEW ENGLAND...NOSING A WEDGE-LIKE ISOBAR CONFIGURATION BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER THE CWFA...ENHANCING AN EASTERLY LLVL WIND ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST A CHC OF LINGERING SHWRS OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTM OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL FORCING DOESN/T LOOK TOO THREATENING FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT AN ISOLD THREAT WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE GIVEN THE WET GROUND. TEMPS WILL BE HELD A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIR MASS. WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL ONLY INCH SLIGHTLY EAST THRU THE DAY...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER THE PVA SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS MOST OF THE CWFA ATOP THE WEAK WEDGE. THIS CLOUD COVER SHUD SCATTER OUT ACCORDING TO THE GUIDANCE...AS IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE TRUE COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST LONGEST ACRS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...SO THEY MAY STAY CLOUDY AND MORE STABLE. THE REST OF THE AREA IS PROGGED TO BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOT-GUN CONVECTION. THERE IS LESS SHEAR AND INSTBY IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS THAN TUESDAY/S...SO EXPECT A SMALLER SEVERE THREAT. STORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING...HOWEVER...SO A HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLD FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...WITH ABOUT A 10 DEG GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 240 PM TUE...GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY FILLING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON A CAD LIKE CONFIGURATION. EVEN THO COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. STILL...FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP CONVECTION DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE. SHEAR AND DCAPE WILL BE LOWER AS WELL...BUT PW VALUES WILL INCREASE. THEREFORE...EXPECT SVR STORM CHC TO BE LOWER...BUT CHC OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE HIGHER. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRI LEAVING A WEAK NWLY FLOW IN PLACE. AT THE SFC...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MODE WITH HIGHEST POP FAVORING THE MTNS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DCAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. SVR CHC AND HEAVY RAIN CHC WILL PROBABLY EVEN OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU WILL RISE TO AROUND NORMAL FOR FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE LONG LIVED UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENING BACK UP TO THE MEAN FLOW AS IT LIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS WE MOVE INTO LATE SUN AND THEN MON...THE LONG RANGE MODELS AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROF DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE WARM SEASON...THE TROF WONT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO HAVE MUCH DIRECT INFLUENCE ON OUR FCST AREA...BUT IT WILL HELP SUPPRESS TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT AS DEEP LYR MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE FCST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO SUN AND THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER EAST...A BRIEF WEDGE PATTERN TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH GETS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND A LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA BY LATE MON WITH SOME DEGREE OF DRYING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I KEPT A SOLID CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP ABOVE CLIMO ON DAYS 6 AND 7. Sounds to me like the upper low is going to be hanging around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Feels great outside. Looks like a trough coming in later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Rain finally got here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Wow, its still storming here. Been so long since we've seen such a long lasting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Allow me to once again defer to the paid mets and their analysis. Here's what they had to say this afternoon about the upper low: Sounds to me like the upper low is going to be hanging around for a while. And i heard it was drifting SSE pretty slowly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 And i heard it was drifting SSE pretty slowly too. Just run the WV loop it shows you exactly where the ULL is and how it is moving...it really is bringing the goods, strong southerly fetch with loads of moisture.....plenty of rain to be had as long as its hanging around....doesn't look to be moving much at all over the last 9 hrs http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Just run the WV loop it shows you exactly where the ULL is and how it is moving...it really is bringing the goods, strong southerly fetch with loads of moisture.....plenty of rain to be had as long as its hanging around....doesn't look to be moving much at all over the last 9 hrs http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html That sucker really threw on the brakes in E Tennessee. If thats where it sets up shop, its gonna be a wee bit wet east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Just run the WV loop it shows you exactly where the ULL is and how it is moving...it really is bringing the goods, strong southerly fetch with loads of moisture.....plenty of rain to be had as long as its hanging around....doesn't look to be moving much at all over the last 9 hrs http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html It needs to be about 50-100 miles to the west though. The best moisture is east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 It needs to be about 50-100 miles to the west though. The best moisture is east of here. I like where it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 I like where it is! It's great for Raleigh of course, but not so good for us in the west. If it went south by 100-200 miles, both of us would be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Ended with 0.03". What a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 It's great for Raleigh of course, but not so good for us in the west. If it went south by 100-200 miles, both of us would be in a good spot. I think you'll have a decent chance of rain over the next couple of weeks...as long as we can keep ridging out of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 One thing I have noticed is when you get under one of these storms or showers it is like a tropical downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 I like where it is! I like where it is too. Still thundering with light rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 The GSP weather office is beginning to see some of the stuff I'm seeing. They say models are trending drier. They have not changed tomorrow's forecast yet but they will. This so called wet pattern is over until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 The latest HRRR and RAP runs both show the upper low slowly drifting SE today and spinning over NE Georgia: HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipZ.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2015060307&plotName=vort_t6500&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6 RAP: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=rap_ncep_jet:&runTime=2015060307&plotName=vort_t6500&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Latest GFS has barely any temps above 90 for the next two weeks in the Carolinas...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Latest GFS has barely any temps above 90 for the next two weeks in the Carolinas...... It would be great to get a repeat of last summer. I think the first week of September ended up being the hottest period (which still wasn't that bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Well it's dry in the upstate of SC just like I said it would be. Still looking at 1993 here for the analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 Well it's dry in the upstate of SC just like I said it would be. Still looking at 1993 here for the analog. Seriously man you have got to quit pushing your agenda. Maybe it hasn't rained in your backyard but most everyone else (minus a few areas around GSP) has seen good rain from this. I am sorry you live in a desert, but please stop acting like you are always right because everyone here knows your track record. You aren't fooling anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 No way to say this any other way, GSP has busted today in upstate SC bigtime. There is not 1 storm anywhere in the the northwest 3rd of the state, and no sign of any to come. Yet they still have 50-70% pops going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 No way to say this any other way, GSP has busted today in upstate SC bigtime. There is not 1 storm anywhere in the the northwest 3rd of the state, and no sign of any to come. Yet they still have 50-70% pops going. I don't think you understand the definition of "chance". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 3, 2015 Share Posted June 3, 2015 No way to say this any other way, GSP has busted today in upstate SC bigtime. There is not 1 storm anywhere in the the northwest 3rd of the state, and no sign of any to come. Yet they still have 50-70% pops going. I was watching the radar earlier today and storms popped 5 miles N of Jonesville, SC. Do you not have eyes? They didn't hit your back yard though, so I guess it is still 1993 allllllll ovvvvverrr againnnnnn. Once again QFT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 No way to say this any other way, GSP has busted today in upstate SC bigtime. There is not 1 storm anywhere in the the northwest 3rd of the state, and no sign of any to come. Yet they still have 50-70% pops going. I don't know what county you live in, but the radar looks pretty darn good out that way to me. Let me guess.... GSP missed it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 They have it right west of Greenville, down towards Greenwood, but I can not see why they still have 50% pops anywhere near Hickory or Statesville or even Charlotte tonight. It's obvious those areas stay dry. The cool and dry air over these areas means it will not be raining up there. I'd even be surprised to see any of that big shield of rain and storms make it past I-26 in NC or SC. There MAY be 1 more chance for rain tomorrow for a few spots, but downsloping means most will stay dry. Then the rain chances go to 0 where i am for a couple of days and dont get much better right through day 7. It will take a tropical storm or hurricane for my location to get more than .25 of rain in any 24 hour period this summer that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 I don't know what county you live in, but the radar looks pretty darn good out that way to me. Let me guess.... GSP missed it again. Yeah lol at folks calling a day a bust mid afternoon, radar looks great if that cluster holds up most of the upstate gonna get a little something and some will get a lot....it wouldn't matter though cause there is no way at all jshetley can get more than .25" without a tropical system..... Places around Anderson SC got 2-3" in just the last hr......and that little cell near Greenwood is getting all hooky....rotation on vel scan too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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