FallsLake Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Great write-up, and it's very nice to hear from you Robert. Kind of a blast from the past when I saw your avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Yep this was a very nice write up. It looks like we may have an interesting 6-9 months coming up with anything from ice and snow, to severe weather and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Yep this was a very nice write up. It looks like we may have an interesting 6-9 months coming up with anything from ice and snow, to severe weather and flooding.You forgot torch! Definately on the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 You forgot torch! Definately on the table! Thanks, all! and Yes, I mentioned a torch, read it again. West to east flow, possible in a super strong Nino (97/98). Odds are at this stage, that warm Pacific and unusual PDO number (anomalies right now) would favor atleast a partial repeat of warm, dry NW, West Canada ridging, and buckling in central or east. Longwaves mean everything,and I won't be suprised to see that east trough axis near Apps, from east Canada to the Gulf coast. With split flow in eastern PAC. Who knows though , it may truly be a warm one just like that 98 year, with hardly any cold coming this far south. That's why I said its going to be interesting going into Autumn to see origination of surface Highs, and their Sizes. Worked out quite well last two Winters, with enormous highs common. SST usually are key on that. And right now I'd say more big highs do develop in nw Canada and drop into Plains, East. Could be way wrong though. Thats long range for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 You forgot torch! Definately on the table! It's possible we get a 1998 repeat for sure, but at least it was wet. That spring had several severe weather outbreaks in the southeast too. With what has happened so far here in August, 1986-87 is back on the table somewhat too. That was a winter folks in the upstate of SC and the western half of NC would love to have repeat. The Raleigh crowd I'm afraid would not like it though. It'll most likely be in the middle of those 2 extremes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 It's possible we get a 1998 repeat for sure, but at least it was wet. That spring had several severe weather outbreaks in the southeast too. With what has happened so far here in August, 1986-87 is back on the table somewhat too. That was a winter folks in the upstate of SC and the western half of NC would love to have repeat. The Raleigh crowd I'm afraid would not like it though. It'll most likely be in the middle of those 2 extremes though. That Winter just rings true to me so far, watching how the Spring and Summer has gone so far. And the SST anomalies, looking over and comparing them. The 86/87 evolution is pretty remarkable, but who knows if we end up with that type of combination. VA and the APPs would like it, as it did combine the split flow, and cold perfectly with storm systems. After August and September, really later in the Fall, only time will tell if we have seen that kind of repetition. No two years are carbon copies. (but I'd bet a lof east, ne winds and Damming events and middle 30s are common where you are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Great write up Robert and a big thanks for stopping by. The next 6 to 9 months will endeed be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 He's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!! Great write up Robert! As a matter of fact you have had some awesome write ups on your web site the last few weeks. I would like a 86/87 or 09/10 with some fries and a coke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Great Great write up. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Good to see you here Robert. Nice post, as usual. Don't be such a stranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Heck I saw a lot more snow in the winter of 97-98 than I did last winter, so Im hoping for a repeat of 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 After yesterday's deluge, KGSO is up to 6.37" of rain on the month, or about 200% of average. It's been a soaking month and now it's raining again! Looks like this is the wettest month since June 2013 (8.37"), but if we continue raining at the pace we're on now, we'll break that, as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Maybe something to look forward to in the short term: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY...SFC FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SE COUNTIES...SUPPORTINGA SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING...AND A FEWSHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WEST-SW FLOW ALOFT MAYSTREAM ENOUGH MOISTURE OVERHEAD TO MAINTAIN A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVELCLOUDS. THUS...NOT EXPECTING A TOTALLY SUNNY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOONACROSS THE REGION AS EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO RESULT IN APARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. HOWEVER...NEAR SFC NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT ADRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOONPROJECTED TO BE IN THE 50S/NEAR 60 NORTH AND MID 60S ACROSS THE FARSOUTH. WITH POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN-OVERCAST CEILINGS TO START THE DAYAND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOLAR HEATING MAY BEINHIBIT A BIT. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMALS...MID-UPPER 80S.SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO/SETTLE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AXISOF LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTALPLAIN. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO SETTLE IN THE MAINLY THE 60-65 DEGREERANGE. IF SKIES CLEARER AND SFC WIND CALM FOR A GOOD PART OF THENIGHT...THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Noticed the GFS really cranks the heat for the first week of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Noticed the GFS really cranks the heat for the first week of September. Not unusual. Just like we can have cold and snow the first week of March we can get the heat the first week of September. BUT the end is getting closer. Those days with highs in the 70s with low humidity are just around the corner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Noticed the GFS really cranks the heat for the first week of September. And it's also kind of dry for much of western and central NC and upstate SC outside of the mountains. The mountains and the eastern half of NC along with the southeast half of SC do ok with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Noticed the GFS really cranks the heat for the first week of September. Only one problem, its the GFS. Take with a big block of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Only one problem, its the GFS. Take with a big block of salt. Yeah it was showing my area with around 2" of rain. Divide that by 10 and it would have been correct. It must be opposite world when GFS is wet and the NAM is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Yeah it was showing my area with around 2" of rain. Divide that by 10 and it would have been correct. It must be opposite world when GFS is wet and the NAM is dry.It will nail the heatwave dead on!It only misses when it shows super cold or alot of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 At least it missed on the 114 it was showing for GSP earlier this summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Charlotte high temperature avg of 92.2 is highest of all time for the period Jun1 - Aug23 (since 1879) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Charlotte high temperature avg of 92.2 is highest of all time for the period Jun1 - Aug23 (since 1879) Nice post and cool info, as usual! Maybe a summer like the 1800s, brings winters like the 1800s!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Nice summer snowstorm in Calgary. Pretty neat pics seeing snow on the ground with green leaves on the trees, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3207582/Only-Alberta-eh-Snow-falls-Calgary-despite-middle-summer-bats-eyelid.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I know this forum is for predictions as opposed to retrospection, but I figure a little discussion of past performance is not out of place. Has anyone in the NC met community heard any discussion about the discrepancy in predicted vs observed performance of that front that crossed the state on Thursday? Please note that this is NOT an attempt to bash or insult, I would just really like to know. In fact the reason why I am so interested is that that episodes where the forecast appears to fail to that degree are rare. Things seemed on track Thursday when I went out to lunch. It was clouding up and some of the clouds showed evidence of convective towering, but by 3 or 4 pm those clouds had disappeared and there was virtually nothing on radar. When I came home from work my wife told me that WRAL had indicated that there was a possibility of thurderstorms in the 10 - 11 pm time frame, so I suspected that perhaps the front had been delayed. In any event, very little materialized across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Looks like summer will stay locked in going into the first part of September. Here is day 10 of the GFS. Of course the extreme temps can be taken with a grain of salt; never-the-less it looks like a hot pattern: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=08&model_dd=24&model_init_hh=06&fhour=252¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 August is running .3 degrees below normal at RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 I know this forum is for predictions as opposed to retrospection, but I figure a little discussion of past performance is not out of place. Has anyone in the NC met community heard any discussion about the discrepancy in predicted vs observed performance of that front that crossed the state on Thursday? Please note that this is NOT an attempt to bash or insult, I would just really like to know. In fact the reason why I am so interested is that that episodes where the forecast appears to fail to that degree are rare. Things seemed on track Thursday when I went out to lunch. It was clouding up and some of the clouds showed evidence of convective towering, but by 3 or 4 pm those clouds had disappeared and there was virtually nothing on radar. When I came home from work my wife told me that WRAL had indicated that there was a possibility of thurderstorms in the 10 - 11 pm time frame, so I suspected that perhaps the front had been delayed. In any event, very little materialized across the state. Thursday morning WRAL showed a line of storms coming through around 5:00 on their in-house model. RAH even said this in the hazardous weather outlook: SLOW MOVING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL IN AN HOUR...LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY OF STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. But there were not any storms at all. Not even isolated ones around when the forecast called for scattered storms with large downpours. This has been happening going back to last spring and summer with the storm forecasting. I know a chance of scattered storms doesn't mean everyone will get a storm at their house. But so many times the last two years there have been forecasts for storms and no one around had anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 We're getting closer and closer to the end of summer. During the next month average highs will drop ~10 degrees. For Raleigh NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Nice summer snowstorm in Calgary. Pretty neat pics seeing snow on the ground with green leaves on the trees, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3207582/Only-Alberta-eh-Snow-falls-Calgary-despite-middle-summer-bats-eyelid.html why does the headline say " Calgary is stunned by snowfall in the middle of summer " Last I checked we are a week away from fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 why does the headline say " Calgary is stunned by snowfall in the middle of summer " Last I checked we are a week away from fall. Sorry.... Fall doesn't officially start until Sept 23. However, met Fall starts Sept 1, but that is not recognized by mainstream folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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