Solak Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 25 mins · Here is the rainfall forecast through next Tuesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 No thank you Solak. I am going to the beach next week and I would like nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Some decent changes seems likely now for at least a week or so of Aug with a nice EC trough setup...GFS has highs in the 70's to low 80's for most of NC, I would expect the Bermuda High to return though but with the trough over the EC and fronts stalling offshore I would also watch the mid month period for a increased chance of a homegrown tropical system of the SE coast or GOM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kclt.txtGFS is advertising some relatively nice weather for the beginning of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kclt.txt GFS is advertising some relatively nice weather for the beginning of August. Nice weather would be lots of rain IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 25 mins · Here is the rainfall forecast through next Tuesday: Cut that by 3/4 and subtract .75 and you'll have the correct total! Kind of like a snowfall map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Cut that by 3/4 and subtract .75 and you'll have the correct total! Kind of like a snowfall map! Yeah I'm not holding my breath for that. I've seen similar maps not come close to being correct all year. GFS is already backing off big time on what was not even impressive totals to begin with. I'll keep on getting fringed the rest of the week while the same areas will keep on getting their rain. Putting out a map like that is pretty ridiculous for this time of year when all that rain depends on thunderstorms that may or may not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 The rainfall maps have not verified all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Imagine that, the mega pattern change to "normal",summer pattern , is not going to happen and we are hanging our hat on a tropical possibility, to save us, lol! Kind of like hoping for an upper low to give us snow in winter! This summer is sucktastic! Good to see we keep letting models kick us in the baguettes , 12 months a year! this summer is historic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 The 6z GFS says hello August 2007. Hopefully it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 The GFS shows very little rainfall through 180. What happened to the big Gulf low coming up and the heavy rain threat this weekend? Oh let me guess...it evaporated once we moved inside 7 days? Go ahead and get prepared for that this winter. Not sure what the Euro shows as far as precip amounts. Looks like there's some decent mid-level RH in the Sunday/Monday time frame, but it's hard to tell about precip from the coarse ewall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 The GFS shows very little rainfall through 180. What happened to the big Gulf low coming up and the heavy rain threat this weekend? Oh let me guess...it evaporated once we moved inside 7 days? Go ahead and get prepared for that this winter. Not sure what the Euro shows as far as precip amounts. Looks like there's some decent mid-level RH in the Sunday/Monday time frame, but it's hard to tell about precip from the coarse ewall maps. The GFS really sucks. All the fantasy winter storms from last winter was very discouraging. The very high temp errors and the pattern flips this summer just continue the knowledge to not trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 The GFS really sucks. All the fantasy winter storms from last winter was very discouraging. The very high temp errors and the pattern flips this summer just continue the knowledge to not trust it. Yeah...it seems like it's gotten worse with the upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Euro and other models consistent with the EC being troughed out between two ridges for at least a week or so starting mid next week.....GFS changes every run so meh, although that is what it tends to do when the H5 pattern is changing a lot so maybe in its own F**cked up way it too is showing the pattern change. If we get into a pattern of the Bermuda High shifting east for troughs then back west every week or so we will need to really be ready for a homegrown tropical system, the troughs will allow stuff to bubble off the SE Coast then a returning ridge could push the storms inland......mid to late Aug into early Sept could be fun tropical wise.....I think once Sept gets here we see more troughs and less Bermuda High, summer ends early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Euro and other models consistent with the EC being troughed out between two ridges for at least a week or so starting mid next week.....GFS changes every run so meh, although that is what it tends to do when the H5 pattern is changing a lot so maybe in its own F**cked up way it too is showing the pattern change. If we get into a pattern of the Bermuda High shifting east for troughs then back west every week or so we will need to really be ready for a homegrown tropical system, the troughs will allow stuff to bubble off the SE Coast then a returning ridge could push the storms inland......mid to late Aug into early Sept could be fun tropical wise.....I think once Sept gets here we see more troughs and less Bermuda High, summer ends early this year. Good assessment. I like the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Yeah...it seems like it's gotten worse with the upgrades.I'd like to hear Bricks assessment ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 I'd like to hear Bricks assessment ! I wonder what he would say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 06z keeps the heat on the next 16 days... max temp 102, min temp 70. 4 days 100 or better. (using KJNX via MeteoStar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 06z keeps the heat on the next 16 days... max temp 102, min temp 70. 4 days 100 or better. (using KJNX via MeteoStar) The GFS has been horrible the last few weeks, it cant even get close to right 24 hrs out...on the 12Z run it shows 106 in GSP tomorrow, official forecast low 90's.....its about 5-10 degrees to warm on average when it tries to show big heat..... This ensemble run average 2M temps looks much more realistic given the pattern and time of year http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015072900&fh=300&xpos=0&ypos=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 The GFS really sucks. All the fantasy winter storms from last winter was very discouraging. The very high temp errors and the pattern flips this summer just continue the knowledge to not trust it. Yeah...it seems like it's gotten worse with the upgrades. I'd like to hear Bricks assessment ! From following things on here, it sure has seemed that way. It advertises a bunch of precip in the long range only for it to back off down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 This is my favorite summer time error from the GFS; 105+ temps in the up-state of SC: 12z day 6: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=12&fhour=150¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 This is my favorite summer time error from the GFS; 105+ temps in the up-state of SC: 12z day 6: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=12&fhour=150¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false It's been showing 100+ temperatures everyday for the last month lol. It would seem like they would want to "upgrade" the model again to fix this. Precip wise, it hasn't been too bad. I get the feeling it will be correct with the next week to 10 days being pretty dry in the upstate. It has backed off the inch plus totals for the last few runs now. CMC wants to put everything south of the upstate down to around the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 The GFS really sucks. All the fantasy winter storms from last winter was very discouraging. The very high temp errors and the pattern flips this summer just continue the knowledge to not trust it. Yet people keep posting GFS maps like they are gospel. Will people ever learn????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCWEATHER Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Ouch. Some areas went from 3"+ to 0.25"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Can't wait to see how it does this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Can't wait to see how it does this winter.Prepare for mass failure on the big 2 models!Nothing's changed to make them better!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Shetly nailed it two months ago despite some folks ribbing him. This has been one hell of a miserable summer. Day after day after day of mid 90s with zero breaks. 1993 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Shetly nailed it two months ago despite some folks ribbing him. This has been one hell of a miserable summer. Day after day after day of mid 90s with zero breaks. 1993 redux.Blind squirrel and nut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Blind squirrel and nut? We'll wait for Shetley's and Marietta's presentation of temperature and precipitation data comparisons before breaking open the Dom Perignon and toasting a great call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 We'll wait for Shetley's and Marietta's presentation of temperature and precipitation data comparisons before breaking open the Dom Perignon and toasting a great call.Lol. This has been an up and down summer so far. Looks like we will cool off a bit starting tomorrow through the weekend then another big ridge builds in. I feel bad for the piedmont and parts of the upstate as they have been dry as a bone so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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