downeastnc Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 My local point and click forecast. This could be a shock to the system. That's a hell of a cold front......wonder what the DP has to be to get a 100 heat index with a temp of 1 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 My local point and click forecast. This could be a shock to the system. I got a cactus added to the sweltering sun on my weatherbug today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Went back and looked at July's temps and your right. I think with last summer's temps being cooler, having a "normal" summer seems so much hotter. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=rah YOu only have to go back a few years to 2011 and 2012 to remember some real hot summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 That's a hell of a cold front......wonder what the DP has to be to get a 100 heat index with a temp of 1 lol...lol! Awsome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 This would normally get me excited, but I bet 40% wins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 way this summer has gone it could be 99% and the 1% would win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Can someone tell me why energy is not diving down to the gulf this year and then coming up through the carolinas? Is it the ridge that is stopping it from doing that? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Can someone tell me why energy is not diving down to the gulf this year and then coming up through the carolinas? Is it the ridge that is stopping it from doing that? TIA. Correct, a ridge across the south / southeast isn't conducive for seeing energy dive to the gulf although that type of flow is more applicable from late fall through spring. The westerlies, where the core of the storm wave energy is tracking, lifts north in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Robert at WXsouth thinks this pattern may change in about 10 days to a much wetter and somewhat cooler pattern more typical of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Can someone tell me why energy is not diving down to the gulf this year and then coming up through the carolinas? Is it the ridge that is stopping it from doing that? TIA. Our typical pattern is actually a SW flow from the Gulf of Mexico on the west edge of the Bermuda high. You typically only see energy diving into the gulf during the cool season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Can someone tell me why energy is not diving down to the gulf this year and then coming up through the carolinas? Is it the ridge that is stopping it from doing that? TIA. Fronts don't usually make it this far south during the summer. The combination of ridge being too strong and the fronts not being strong enough bring us this lovely hot,smoldering weather. We should start seeing stronger fronts digging down after football season starts.....well....at least some of us will....the rest of us located between the portals usually have to wait a bit longer to see any relief Robert at WXsouth thinks this pattern may change in about 10 days to a much wetter and somewhat cooler pattern more typical of summer. Maybe for some around the ohio valley/tenn valley/mid atlantic/ne......and at most it will be just back to normal after another brutal heat wave for them. For us.....it's just more of the same. CAE is already sitting just below a top five "hottest summer ever" and there is nothing in the future that is saying relief is on the way. Only more of the same, bringing the chances of me experiencing another "hottest summer ever", much greater than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Fronts don't usually make it this far south during the summer. The combination of ridge being too strong and the fronts not being strong enough bring us this lovely hot,smoldering weather. We should start seeing stronger fronts digging down after football season starts.....well....at least some of us will....the rest of us located between the portals usually have to wait a bit longer to see any relief Maybe for some around the ohio valley/tenn valley/mid atlantic/ne......and at most it will be just back to normal after another brutal heat wave for them. For us.....it's just more of the same. CAE is already sitting just below a top five "hottest summer ever" and there is nothing in the future that is saying relief is on the way. Only more of the same, bringing the chances of me experiencing another "hottest summer ever", much greater than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I'm not gonna hold my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I'm not gonna hold my breath I guess the upswing is the GFS is showing a change too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 The 12z Euro says the northwest flow goes right through day 10. No sign of any pattern change on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I guess the upswing is the GFS is showing a change too. It is a change.....back to "normal" summertime temps and pop up rain chances for mby Will it happen and will it last......we'll find out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 The 12z Euro says the northwest flow goes right through day 10. No sign of any pattern change on it. So you are now doubting Robert? Hes saying 8-10 days to a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 It is a change.....back to "normal" summertime temps and pop up rain chances for mby Will it happen and will it last......we'll find out soon Lets hope so. So painful seeing virtually everyone else cash in today while we still roast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Lets hope so. So painful seeing virtually everyone else cash in today while we still roast here. I know right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 I know right?! Makes me wish i could go back to Kentucky. It stormed up there everyday i was there, with some incredible rain amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 So you are now doubting Robert? Hes saying 8-10 days to a pattern change. I was just pointing out what the Euro had on it. The 0z Euro still has the NW flow through day 9, but we are in a fairly nice trough by day 10. If that moved back to the west by 200-300 miles we would have a SW flow and a much better chance of rain. It should be cooler though by then for sure if the Euro is right. The last 2 runs of the GFS also shows at least parts of SC and NC picking up very nice rain and is also somewhat cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 The 6z GFS showing some love in the extended with lower dew points starting at day 6. Here is day 7: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Dew points then stay tolerable way out into the fantasy period. Here's a dream(..for SE summer) at day 11: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=276¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 RAH this afternoon AFD LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FL GULF COAST...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NNE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND STALL AS IT REACHES CENTRAL NC. DURING THIS TIME...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Not much of a "dream" actually. We are already currently enjoying dewpoints near 60 and mild temps. It wouldn't be a stretch for it to verify again in early August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 So you are now doubting Robert? Hes saying 8-10 days to a pattern change. This is summer - are we still drinking the 8-10 day pattern change tequila? Wait until December to do that shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Not much of a "dream" actually. We are already currently enjoying dewpoints near 60 and mild temps. It wouldn't be a stretch for it to verify again in early August. Yay for VA! Not so much for the rest of us in the south This is summer - are we still drinking the 8-10 day pattern change tequila? Wait until December to do that shot! Now.....you know the pattern change is always 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Actually, I'm in Winston-Salem/Greensboro, where it is 84/61. It's essentially The same at RDU, where the high was a spectacular low-humidity 86 today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Actually, I'm in Winston-Salem/Greensboro, where it is 84/61. It's essentially The same at RDU, where the high was a spectacular low-humidity 86 today! close enough to Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Now.....you know the pattern change is always 10 days away Except down here until October ... I'll give you 60% chance of rain, 94/74, pretty much every day until then ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Except down here until October ... I'll give you 60% chance of rain, 94/74, pretty much every day until then ... I can only hope it actually happens in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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