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Summer 2015 pattern discussion


GaWx

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Dont we have 120 day Canadian or some other highly inaccurate model we can rely on to tell us when we will see 70 degree highs again? I am looking forward to the mini ice age in 2025 from reduced sun spot activity.....thats going to be quite a relief and leaves me plenty of time to sell the boat....but i cant take another 30 days of what the GFS is selling. Ugh!

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Dont we have 120 day Canadian or some other highly inaccurate model we can rely on to tell us when we will see 70 degree highs again? I am looking forward to the mini ice age in 2025 from reduced sun spot activity.....thats going to be quite a relief and leaves me plenty of time to sell the boat....but i cant take another 30 days of what the GFS is selling. Ugh!

Ditto. Actually I'm so desperate I am clinging to the accuweather forecast showing 80s for the first week of August, been there for awhile. Was also showing mid- low 80s highs and mid-low 60s lows for last week of August but that changed to 90/70. This current pattern STINKS!!!

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Dont we have 120 day Canadian or some other highly inaccurate model we can rely on to tell us when we will see 70 degree highs again? I am looking forward to the mini ice age in 2025 from reduced sun spot activity.....thats going to be quite a relief and leaves me plenty of time to sell the boat....but i cant take another 30 days of what the GFS is selling. Ugh!

I don't think we really want to see a little ice age. Below is an article about Virginia weather and it depicts a climate of very wet springs, hot droughty summers, and very cold winters. The cold winters sound good but the summers would neutralize the benefit (in my opinion).

 

http://www.encyclopediavirginia.org/Little_Ice_Age_and_Colonial_Virginia_The

 

With this very hot summer we're having makes you think that maybe a cold winter is in store; if there's a correlation.    

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Do the Carolinas have a dry season like we have in my area ? Once it gets to about Mid August it usually gets bone dry for about 2 or 3 months. There are exceptions of course, especially if there's tropical activity. But once the afternoon thunderstorms end, it usually gets very dry.

 

Generally speaking, for the upstate, not really.  The average rainfall is around 4" each month +/- an inch.  Some months average a little more and some months less.

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Generally speaking, for the upstate, not really.  The average rainfall is around 4" each month +/- an inch.  Some months average a little more and some months less.

When it comes to rainfall from August to October, it's usually feast or famine here. Either we get flooding rainfall or it's dry as a bone. September 2009 we had like 20" of rain. On the other hand, I've seen Septembers and Octobers where we didn't get a drop of rain all month. Fall of 2001 was particularly dry if I recall correctly. The very next year, in September 2002, it was very wet.

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0z GFS still hot. I think this will go down as a summer to remember; in terms of heat.

Thus far, the heat at RDU in July has been unremarkable. In fact, RDU is still running .2 degrees below normal for the month. Not even a hot month at RDU, yet. Also, RDU is  0.65" above normal in rainfall for July.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=rah

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Do the Carolinas have a dry season like we have in my area ? Once it gets to about Mid August it usually gets bone dry for about 2 or 3 months. There are exceptions of course, especially if there's tropical activity. But once the afternoon thunderstorms end, it usually gets very dry.

 

The precip in this areas is remarkably consistent month to month.  July, Aug and Sept are the three wettest months, primarily due to heavy thunderstorms. The difference over the rest of the year isn't that significant.  

 

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The precip in this areas is remarkably consistent month to month. July, Aug and Sept are the three wettest months, primarily due to heavy thunderstorms. The difference over the rest of the year isn't that significant.

interesting that the climate in the Carolinas is so different than GA despite being close in proximity.
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Thus far, the heat at RDU in July has been unremarkable. In fact, RDU is still running .2 degrees below normal for the month. Not even a hot month at RDU, yet. Also, RDU is  0.65" above normal in rainfall for July.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=rah

Went back and looked at July's temps and your right. I think with last summer's temps being cooler, having a "normal" summer seems so much hotter.  

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=rah

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The Floridian summer for mby continues, 90 degrees at noon and Storms almost every evening. Since the June (2 week heat wave) we have been blessed here in my micro climate, As green as I have ever seen it despite hitting 90 for like 24 days already this summer. We avg like 29 per year, so its been hot and we will end up 30 plus days hitting 90 or better with August still in front of us, But the rain has not been lacking that's for sure,

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The precip in this areas is remarkably consistent month to month.  July, Aug and Sept are the three wettest months, primarily due to heavy thunderstorms. The difference over the rest of the year isn't that significant.  

 

Your right, But late September and October do tend to be the driest. Dew points nose dive and it takes a synoptic or tropical event to kick up any rain. Fronts usually start showing up regularly by late October.

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Your right, But late September and October do tend to be the driest. Dew points nose dive and it takes a synoptic or tropical event to kick up any rain. Fronts usually start showing up regularly by late October.

Used to be.  Try February, but not by much.  October has fallen to fifth driest.

 

http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/greensboro/north-carolina/united-states/usnc0280

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It looks like many (at least in NC) will see a break in the heat starting tomorrow. A spot check near RDU has highs around 86 with lows in the upper 60s for the five days starting Wednesday.  

 

From RAH:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THE MAIN ISSUE ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE INCREASE IN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR A BRIEF TIME AS A POTENTIAL SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE CONTINUED TO BE
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THURSDAY AS MCS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE SE COAST. JUST WHERE
THESE SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS TRACK WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN WEATHER
PLAYERS THURSDAY. GIVEN THE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED POSITION TO THE SE
OF RDU... THE HIGHEST POP (LIKELY) WILL BE DISTRIBUTED FROM FAY TO
GSB TO RZZ... WITH THE LOWEST (LOW CHANCE ~25-30 PERCENT) IN THE NW
PIEDMONT (INT/GSO/ROX). QPF OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES MAY RESULT
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER GIVEN
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS... LOW LEVEL NE FLOW NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY... AND THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EXPECT MOSTLY 80S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SOUTH
CAROLINA). THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO NIL POPS MAY BE THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS INTO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A LOW (20-30 POP) MAY BE
JUSTIFIED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO GEN UP AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. BY SATURDAY
EVEN THAT CHANCE APPEARS MINIMAL AND POP WILL BE REMOVED. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS 65-70.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS PROCESS SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FIRST WHERE POP WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR PM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN CHANCES OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY... BUT CHANCES APPEAR NO HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY IN THE WEST
(~35 PERCENT)... AND REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EAST FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO MONDAY. CHANCES INCREASE
TO AROUND 35 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS ARE
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE SANDHILLS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN TUESDAY.

 

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