Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 The humidity this summer has been unreal. Is it even possible to have a day in July where the dewpoint is below 70 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 The MJO is getting into phase 8 which should be cooler for us, correct? Also Our favorite Met JB thinks the ridge breaks down and forms a trough over the East coast and the SE. Well we have had several little interludes of troughing in between the heatwaves. The problem seems to be that the ridge is sliding off to the west which puts us in NW flow, which is not very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 The humidity this summer has been unreal. Is it even possible to have a day in July where the dewpoint is below 70 ?I haven't had one day above a 65 dewpoint all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 The humidity this summer has been unreal. Is it even possible to have a day in July where the dewpoint is below 70 ?Humidity around Charlotte hasn't been a problem. Dew points have been mixing into the low 60's and even 50's some days. Been in Myrtle Beach and Oak Island the last several days and it has been absolutely miserable if your not on the beach with DP in the 75 to 79 range. At least it gave up some excellent storms though. I saw more lightning from one storm in 10 minutes here then I've seen at home all summer. Watching a good lightning show from an offshore t-storm is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I haven't had one day above a 65 dewpoint all summer Downsloping FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 We have had days with low dewpoints, and days with very high dewpoints.More high than low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Humidity around Charlotte hasn't been a problem. Dew points have been mixing into the low 60's and even 50's some days. Been in Myrtle Beach and Oak Island the last several days and it has been absolutely miserable if your not on the beach with DP in the 75 to 79 range. At least it gave up some excellent storms though. I saw more lightning from one storm in 10 minutes here then I've seen at home all summer. Watching a good lightning show from an offshore t-storm is the best. Due to the lack of rain the DP's have been lower and now caught in the cycle of drought breeding more drought. We've had maybe 2 thunderstorms this summer - can't wait to hit the beach next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 It seems like FFC has been forecasting temps too high lately. Today, for example, they were forecasting 92 for ATL and I believe it only made it to 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Looks like the heat returns here next week. Good thing I will be in Myrtle Beach, where it's not supposed to get above 90 all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Looks like the heat returns here next week. Good thing I will be in Myrtle Beach, where it's not supposed to get above 90 all week. Think again ILM..... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS 2/3 OF THE NATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION...SO MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCALLY WILL BE W/NW. THE AIRMASS COMING INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK ORIGINATES ACROSS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THEN ADVECTS AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS DRIVES TREMENDOUSLY WARM 850MB AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 24C...ALTHOUGH THE COOLER ECMWF KEEPING TEMPS TO 22C AT THAT LEVEL. THE GFS HAS PERFORMED BETTER WITH THE BIG HEAT THIS SUMMER HOWEVER...AND IS PREFERRED. THIS WILL DRIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S EVEN AT THE COAST...WITH 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING TO INLAND ZONES. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW 80. FORCING DURING THIS TIME IS LIMITED AS WELL...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL MEXICAN EML AND VERY HOT/UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE STAYS TO THE WEST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BOUNDARY WILL DRAG THIS FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WELL OUT OF SEASON. FOR NOW WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Think again ILM..... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS 2/3 OF THE NATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION...SO MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCALLY WILL BE W/NW. THE AIRMASS COMING INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK ORIGINATES ACROSS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THEN ADVECTS AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS DRIVES TREMENDOUSLY WARM 850MB AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 24C...ALTHOUGH THE COOLER ECMWF KEEPING TEMPS TO 22C AT THAT LEVEL. THE GFS HAS PERFORMED BETTER WITH THE BIG HEAT THIS SUMMER HOWEVER...AND IS PREFERRED. THIS WILL DRIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S EVEN AT THE COAST...WITH 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING TO INLAND ZONES. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP MUCH BELOW 80. FORCING DURING THIS TIME IS LIMITED AS WELL...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL MEXICAN EML AND VERY HOT/UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE STAYS TO THE WEST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BOUNDARY WILL DRAG THIS FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WELL OUT OF SEASON. FOR NOW WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP. I predict at least one post complaining about the high temps at the "Redneck Riviera" from Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I predict at least one post complaining about the high temps at the "Redneck Riviera" from Brick. I predict only one post NOT complaining about the high temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I predict only one post NOT complaining about the high temps I'll be about a lack of a severe warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 It feels like we are going to be stuck in this pattern until the world ends. When will it ever stop? I miss the summers where we struggled to get above 90° and we actually had a real 30% chance of rain instead of the downsloping 30% chance of rain, which in reality is more like 10% here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 It feels like we are going to be stuck in this pattern until the world ends. When will it ever stop? I miss the summers where we struggled to get above 90° and we actually had a real 30% chance of rain instead of the downsloping 30% chance of rain, which in reality is more like 10% here. IMHO, I've been living in the south since 1983. A majority of the summer here are hot and dry with little pattern change. It's a rare year that we get into any consistent wetter or cooler pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 The only positive I can think of right now is that the days are getting shorter and very soon it will be noticeable in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 IMHO, I've been living in the south since 1983. A majority of the summer here are hot and dry with little pattern change. It's a rare year that we get into any consistent wetter or cooler pattern. Yeah I've lived in the south forever. It just seems like the majority of forecast discussions this summer always mention above climo temps. I know we aren't going to have gulf lows coming through like we do outside of summer, but usually we can count on a decent chance of storms in the afternoons. That is what seems to be missing this year. Almost everything that has formed in the lee this summer has just been small popcorn showers that only affect a small area. What does form is always short lived because of the downsloping. Just ready for summer to be over with now so I can enjoy being outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I'll be about a lack of a severe warning.I hope he gets a severe storm at his house, while away at Myrtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 The only positive I can think of right now is that the days are getting shorter and very soon it will be noticeable in the evening.They are still over 14 hours long, it'll be August before you notice it getting dark earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 IMHO, I've been living in the south since 1983. A majority of the summer here are hot and dry with little pattern change. It's a rare year that we get into any consistent wetter or cooler pattern. Yep it's mostly either hot or fairly dry in this part of the country during the summer. Since 1980, only these summers were wet and with temps at or maybe slightly below normal. 1982 1984 1989 1992 1994 2003 2013 2014 That's not very many out of 35 years. As for really hot and dry summers, these come to mind. 1980 1986 1993 1999 2002 2007 Most of the other years would probably average out to slightly above on temps and slightly below on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I hope he gets a severe storm at his house, while away at Myrtleindeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Awesome! .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIAWILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH WILL BECENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THELATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH IN PLACELONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN A FLATTER FLOW NORTH OFTHE CWFA KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AS WELL. THEPREVIOUS GUIDANCE MOVES A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE AREAMONDAY IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE NEW GUIDANCE KEEPS THEFRONT CLOSER TO THE OH VALLEY IN THE FLATTER FLOW. THIS RESULTS INLESS DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA IN DRIER W TO NW LOW LEVELFLOW. AS A RESULT...BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THEMTNS WITH LOWER CHC ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS SAT NITE WHENONGOING CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE REST OFTHE CWFA INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOWER ASWELL...MAINLY DUE TO LOWER COVERAGE AND DRIER LOW LEVELS. THATSAID...DCAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGH...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULDDEVELOP DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER90S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS. RESULTING HEATINDEX VALUES COULD MAKE A RUN AT 105...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OFI-85...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHEN THE FLOW TURNS MORE WLY AND LESSDOWNSLOPE KEEPING DEW POINTS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 We just keep winning! I think i would be more excited about tracking a rain storm now , than a snow threat in the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 2010 was by far the hottest summer I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 They are still over 14 hours long, it'll be August before you notice it getting dark earlier. That's true but at least we are losing daylight more and more each day. Atlanta is now losing over a minute each day and we've lost about 16 minutes since the summer solstice. Fall is on it's way ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 That's true but at least we are losing daylight more and more each day. Atlanta is now losing over a minute each day and we've lost about 16 minutes since the summer solstice. Fall is on it's way ! Wake me up when college football starts. Until then, I'm going into stasis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 2010 was by far the hottest summer I can remember. 1980 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Back from the beach and now able to look at the models more. But, nothing great to look forward to in terms of cool weather. The 6z GFS this morning has wall to wall heat for a good portion of the nation in the near term and extended. Below is day 8. I would normally not put to much stock in day 8 depictions but you could use this look for day 3 to 15 and it would be close. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=06&fhour=204¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I hope he gets a severe storm at his house, while away at Myrtleheres hoping that this cells north of Raleigh will go severe!! Edit: go baby go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 heres hoping that this cells north of Raleigh will go severe!! Edit: go baby go! You know there's still no severe weather at his house though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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