sparklecity Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 6z GFS has mby receiving 0.12" through 180 and a high temp of 105. Thinking a trip to the high country may be in order for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Why does the GFS so often have CHS so much hotter than nearby areas? It is quite flawed as verifications have shown even though we may get another heatwave.Maybe the humidity throws off the computer guidance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Maybe the humidity throws off the computer guidance ? Well, soil moisture is a big player, especially if there is adequate mixing of the atmosphere. So yes, humidity plays a role in max temps. However, the models should take that into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 GFS going crazy with the heat. 6 days in a row above 100° with little or no moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Well, soil moisture is a big player, especially if there is adequate mixing of the atmosphere. So yes, humidity plays a role in max temps. However, the models should take that into account.Makes sense , the models really are the issue , I believe ! In winter, they often can't pick up on the low dewpoints ahead of a storm. Often off by 5-10 degrees, on the high side, than actual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 GFS Ensemble data showing 3 straight days of 98-99 degree heat starting next weekend...and even the Euro ENS are spitting out 95-96 degree heat in the same time frame...Given model consensus and GFS bias, I could see a 3 day run of 95-98 for the North Carolina Foothills, Western Piedmont, Upstate SC being bookended by days of 93-96...Biggest difference I see synoptic is that the GFS builds a pretty good 594dm ridge overhead the interior Carolinas while the Euro centers a skinny heat ridge along and south of I-20 from SC to AL/MS...The Euro solution would allow the potential for west to east MCS activity...and an earlier break in the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 Are we gonna keep falling for these GFS temp clown maps over and over again? If those clown maps were right, i wouldve had several feet of snow this past winter and a solid month of 100+ temps this spring/summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 GFS Ensemble data showing 3 straight days of 98-99 degree heat starting next weekend...and even the Euro ENS are spitting out 95-96 degree heat in the same time frame... Given model consensus and GFS bias, I could see a 3 day run of 95-98 for the North Carolina Foothills, Western Piedmont, Upstate SC being bookended by days of 93-96... Biggest difference I see synoptic is that the GFS builds a pretty good 594dm ridge overhead the interior Carolinas while the Euro centers a skinny heat ridge along and south of I-20 from SC to AL/MS... The Euro solution would allow the potential for west to east MCS activity...and an earlier break in the heat. I hope we get the Euro solution, as i would be on the northern fringe and could get some MCS activity possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I hope we get the Euro solution, as i would be on the northern fringe and could get some MCS activity possibly. Yep the Euro shows the ridge pulling out around day 7-8 to be replaced by a fairly strong trough. It looks like it could be close to the same pattern we went through last Tuesday through Thursday with the big ridge back from Texas towards the 4 corners but that is 8-10 days out and a lot could change. By the way, Wxsouth is on board for a return to the heat later this week right through next weekend. He thinks some us us will see 100 from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Blistering ! Lol! Or just summer in the south! Our avg high now is 90, oh the humanity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Blistering ! Lol! Or just summer in the south! Our avg high now is 90, oh the humanity! Better call the National Guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Better call the National Guard. Brick's gonna be pissed when he doesn't get a heat advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 06z GFS comes in dry... just .16" for the next 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 This is shaping up to be the driest month in sometime for mby unless something changes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 This is shaping up to be the driest month in sometime for mby unless something changes soon. It's almost as dry as that map right through day 16. It is showing under .50 for a large area now, not just upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 1993 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 This pattern across the Southeast US is just horrible right now...either a ridge sets up overhead or it slides just far enough west to send winds screaming from the northwest...which is another drying wind just east of the Apps...Now, Eastern Carolina tends to be ok in that type of northwest flow because the compression is negated by the time you get that far to the east.The "only" saving grace would be if an extremely well organized series of MCS could gather themselves as the ridge retrogrades...but otherwise its a lot of nothing for many west of 77 in NC and SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 SOIL PCT MONTH PRELIM-P PRECIP MOISTURE FIELD CHANGE MOIST FINAL -F NEEDED UPPER LOWER CAP. POT RUN CROP FROM ANOM PALMER TO END TEMP PCPN LAYER LAYER END EVAP OFF MOIST PREV (Z) DROUGHT DROUGHT ST CD CLIMATE DIVISION (F) (IN) (IN) (IN) WEEK (IN) (IN) INDEX WEEK INDEX INDEX (IN) SC 1 MOUNTAIN 70.2 1.17 0.34 4.93 87.9 1.08 0.00 0.08 0.10 -1.02 -2.21 F 8.63 SC 2 NORTHWEST 75.2 0.71 0.00 2.84 47.3 1.25 0.00 -0.82 -0.14 -1.89 -1.76 F 4.79 SC 3 NORTH CENTRAL 78.4 0.45 0.00 1.33 22.1 1.41 0.00 -2.86 -0.30 -3.97 -2.88 F 7.93 SC 4 NORTHEAST 79.4 1.16 0.00 2.62 43.7 1.44 0.00 -0.88 0.19 -2.46 -1.60 F 4.56 SC 5 WEST CENTRAL 77.5 1.68 0.33 2.59 48.6 1.35 0.00 -0.51 0.76 -1.89 -1.00 P 2.52 SC 6 CENTRAL 79.1 1.59 0.16 2.38 42.4 1.43 0.00 -0.64 0.69 -2.20 -1.32 P 3.97 SC 7 SOUTHERN 80.2 1.88 0.62 2.72 55.7 1.53 0.00 0.00 0.37 -0.72 -0.37 P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 The GFS spitting out ridiculously high temps again for SC and KCHS proper. However, the last heat wave failed to reach 100 and given the amounts of rain that have fallen, I subsequently will say that will probably not happen this time, either. Very hot, yes but triple digit for KCHS? Probably not. SBCAPES even with strong subsidence will climb over 4000 J/Kg and still likely develop some pulse convection in that kins of environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 The GFS spitting out ridiculously high temps again for SC and KCHS proper. However, the last heat wave failed to reach 100 and given the amounts of rain that have fallen, I subsequently will say that will probably not happen this time, either. Very hot, yes but triple digit for KCHS? Probably not. SBCAPES even with strong subsidence will climb over 4000 J/Kg and still likely develop some pulse convection in that kins of environment. The GFS has been way inaccurate with temps. I would take it with a big block of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 From WxSouth this morning: Current radar (Wednesday morning) with my best chance of storms shown in the red contours. The best chance will be southeast Virginia and eastern NC late today as the northwest flow jumps the mountains and usually re-converges east of I-77.This flow is still extremely anomalous--we should have deep southerly or southwest flow at all levels, providing rich moisture and abundant thunderstorm chances, but as you've noticed, there's quite a drought brewing east of the mountains. The same areas will always get skipped in this kind of flow (upper SC, sw VA and western NC). Unfortunately, the drought will grow worse and widen, and there's not much rain shown anywhere in the Southeast over the next week, even where it had been raining a lot in TN, AL, part of GA and Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Just saw a guy on TWC from WSI, he said this niño is the strongest he's seen since 97-98, and extreme heat in th SE and NW, wet in the plains, is normal for a summer pattern during a strong niño , so no worries, this suctastic summer pattern is what's suppose to happen and I'm sure it will screw us in the winter as well, with no cold to go with the moisture! #LONGLIVEELNINO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Just saw a guy on TWC from WSI, he said this niño is the strongest he's seen since 97-98, and extreme heat in th SE and NW, wet in the plains, is normal for a summer pattern during a strong niño , so no worries, this suctastic summer pattern is what's suppose to happen and I'm sure it will screw us in the winter as well, with no cold to go with the moisture! #LONGLIVEELNINO! This could be a worry. It usually equates to better chances for wintery storms, but if it is strong enough it will overwhelm the country with warmth. So basically we in the SE don't like a very strong niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 This could be a worry. It usually equates to better chances for wintery storms, but if it is strong enough it will overwhelm the country with warmth. So basically we in the SE don't like a very strong niño. Yeah, if we get a super nino, go ahead and start looking forward to winter 2016-2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Winter is officially over. Bring on next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Just saw a guy on TWC from WSI, he said this niño is the strongest he's seen since 97-98, and extreme heat in th SE and NW, wet in the plains, is normal for a summer pattern during a strong niño , so no worries, this suctastic summer pattern is what's suppose to happen and I'm sure it will screw us in the winter as well, with no cold to go with the moisture! #LONGLIVEELNINO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Yeah, if we get a super nino, go ahead and start looking forward to winter 2016-2017. Maybe we get super blocking and have the best winter ever...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Maybe we get super blocking and have the best winter ever...... Oh we'll get super blocking alright...probably starting right around 4/1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Winter is officially over. Bring on next year! Should we go ahead and start a Spring 2016 thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 From WxSouth this morning: Current radar (Wednesday morning) with my best chance of storms shown in the red contours. The best chance will be southeast Virginia and eastern NC late today as the northwest flow jumps the mountains and usually re-converges east of I-77. This flow is still extremely anomalous--we should have deep southerly or southwest flow at all levels, providing rich moisture and abundant thunderstorm chances, but as you've noticed, there's quite a drought brewing east of the mountains. The same areas will always get skipped in this kind of flow (upper SC, sw VA and western NC). Unfortunately, the drought will grow worse and widen, and there's not much rain shown anywhere in the Southeast over the next week, even where it had been raining a lot in TN, AL, part of GA and Mississippi. I love Robert, don't get me wrong.. But WNC does ok with these type flows. We have storms popping right now in Buncombe co. giving some their hardest rain in around a week. I do agree that the downslope areas do very poorly with these flows though. I like the flow though for mby, but that is just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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