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Summer 2015 pattern discussion


GaWx

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I agree.  We need to really work on improving morals around here.  I got lots of beatings as a kid when my morals didn't measure up to that of my parents.  :D

I know more widespread heavy rains and storms would do wonders for the moral around here, except for Jonesville of course. :)

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I agree.  We need to really work on improving morals around here.  I got lots of beatings as a kid when my morals didn't measure up to that of my parents.  :D

 

haha I didn't catch that until I read this.

 

Maybe all the heat from the fireworks exploding tomorrow night will create enough instability to get some storms here.  :lmao:   Anyone got any cloud seeding bottle rockets laying around?

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haha I didn't catch that until I read this.

 

Maybe all the heat from the fireworks exploding tomorrow night will create enough instability to get some storms here.  :lmao:   Anyone got any cloud seeding bottle rockets laying around?

 

No worries, man.  It just seemed really funny when I read it for the first time.  Particularly when you tied beatings to morals.

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The 12z GFS has us back in the high heat in 5 days with readings as high as 105-110 in upstate SC and shows little rainfall in the same area, while everyone else keeps right on getting tons of it. Unreal.

Just looked at the 18z and it stills shows the heat. You have to question the intensity of the heat especially for the up-state of SC. The past heat wave was bad but not as bad as the GFS depicted.

 

But here is day 6 for the 18z GFS(day 5 is hot too but this shows the questionable high temps for the up-state) :

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=18&fhour=144&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Just looked at the 18z and it stills shows the heat. You have to question the intensity of the heat especially for the up-state of SC. The past heat wave was bad but not as bad as the GFS depicted.

 

But here is day 6 for the 18z GFS(day 5 is hot too but this shows the questionable high temps for the up-state) :

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=18&fhour=144&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

That's true, but the GFS can't be that far off forever and I'm afraid it could be right this time. The good news is that the Euro did not look nearly that hot. Hopefully it will end up being right, although with northwest flow, it'll be hard to get much rain around here. 

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That's true, but the GFS can't be that far off forever and I'm afraid it could be right this time. The good news is that the Euro did not look nearly that hot. Hopefully it will end up being right, although with northwest flow, it'll be hard to get much rain around here.

It is off every time in the winter, the GFS that is! Shows negative teens over NC, and + 10 verifies! As was stated, the last heatwave was 5 degrees too hot on models, everyday!
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It is off every time in the winter, the GFS that is! Shows negative teens over NC, and + 10 verifies! As was stated, the last heatwave was 5 degrees too hot on models, everyday!

 

I've stopped paying attention to the extreme temps the GFS shows since the "upgrade".  Something seems off.  However, I'm sure we will have another stretch with near 100° temps to finally finish off my plants and lawn.

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 The GFS had CHS as hot as 113 in June!!! They also had them at near 106 just a few hours in advance!! The hottest ended up at 99. The GFS could easily be 10 F too hot. Don't fall for Goofy's tricks. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

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The 6z GFS continues to show heat wave round two. We can question how hot it will actually get but one thing we can count on is it will be hot. As far as I'm concerned 95 and 100 feels about the same. Also kind of funny how the heat will be focused over the SE forum zone; whereas the Mid Atlantic and NE will stay relatively cool.

 

Day 6:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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The 6z GFS continues to show heat wave round two. We can question how hot it will actually get but one thing we can count on is it will be hot. As far as I'm concerned 95 and 100 feels about the same. Also kind of funny how the heat will be focused over the SE forum zone; whereas the Mid Atlantic and NE will stay relatively cool.

Day 6:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Why does the GFS so often have CHS so much hotter than nearby areas? It is quite flawed as verifications have shown even though we may get another heatwave.

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Why does the GFS so often have CHS so much hotter than nearby areas? It is quite flawed as verifications have shown even though we may get another heatwave.

Maybe it has an error in the elevation equation; miscalculating the down-sloping to the NW. As us living people know, CHS will be modified by the nearby water long before temps could reach that high (..in most cases). 

 

I've camped at some of the SC coastal state parks in the summer. The coastal areas are always cooler than the far inland areas; but much more humid (..nothing is free).

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