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Summer 2015 pattern discussion

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Southeastern States

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Cool down next weekend looks on track.  GFS MOS has lots of clouds and a high of 86 here for next Sunday...with Euro Ensemble Mean showing a cold front pushing south into the coastal plain...relief from nasty heat this week.

 

snljGLh.png

 

Latest GFS doesn't have a temp over 90 here for the last 10 days or so of the run......ironically July average high is 90 for most of the month so we will actually be below normal for that time frame if the GFS is correct with the temps.....June is gonna end up well above normal we average +5-10 on highs these last few weeks.....July looks to start out maybe  5-10 degrees below normal lol...

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NRVwxfan.

NRVwxfan.

Posted
Posted

Cool down next weekend looks on track.  GFS MOS has lots of clouds and a high of 86 here for next Sunday...with Euro Ensemble Mean showing a cold front pushing south into the coastal plain...relief from nasty heat this week.

 

snljGLh.png

I really hope there is some rain coming with the modeled cooldown.

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NRVwxfan.

NRVwxfan.

Posted
Posted

Atleast we are sharing the heatwave with our friends in the PAC NW! Portland is suppose to have a high of 103 on Saturday! Probably 3/4 of houses out there don't even have A/C! Them getting to 103 is probably the equivalent of most of us reaching 110

Don't often see a pattern that brings heat and drought to the west coast, also bring heat and drought to the southeast. This is one screwed up pattern.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Cool down next weekend looks on track. GFS MOS has lots of clouds and a high of 86 here for next Sunday...with Euro Ensemble Mean showing a cold front pushing south into the coastal plain...relief from nasty heat this week.

snljGLh.png

Yeah it looks like the pattern will shift for a bit with a ridge out West and a trough in the East. The latest euro run brings in the trough from hour 120 yo the end of the run. The first push of cooler air is pretty impressive. Seems like the euro really dives the trough to the gulf. Temps will really get beaten down by this. As of the moment up here our highs look to be in the low to mid 70s starting this weekend.
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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH starting to discuss a break in this pattern:

HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW

90S. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND... DECREASING INTO THE UPPER

60S TO MID 70S BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD: THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING COOL

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST BY

SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE

REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT...HIGHS SUNDAY COULD BE IN

THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Goodbye heatwave lets hope it isn't repeated

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR
TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING.

THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.
EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR
IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH
TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.

EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING
FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE  SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL
IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW
80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.

 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Goodbye heatwave lets hope it isn't repeated

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT ACROSS THE U.S. A STRONG

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS

WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

AND GREAT LAKES STATES...DIMINISHING THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER

THE SE U.S....AND REPLACING IT WITH A L/W TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.

THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL BRING AN END TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WELL

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THIS TRANSITION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIOR

TO THAT...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A THREAT FOR

AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF

THE CWA AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THIS VICINITY. THIS

FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING AND AID TO

INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS

TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT-EXCESSIVE

LIGHTNING.

THE LEAD S/W THAT WILL AID TO INITIATE THE THE L/W TROUGH FORMATION

WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW FRIDAY AND AFFECT OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT

INTO SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR

SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CAP POP AT 50 PERCENT THOUGH IF

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGHER POPS WILL BE WARRANTED.

EXPECT FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S.

HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVERAGE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENT THINKING OR

IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH

TEMPS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING 5-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST.

EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL

RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE

SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR

DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING

FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE  SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A

FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL

IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW

80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED

CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND

COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR

EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS

HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK

MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.

RAH even mentioned a possible CAD; but they also said the configuration(high pressure placement) was not perfect as well.

EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL

RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL (85-90). SOME MODEL GUIDANCE

SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS POTENTIAL COLD AIR

DAMMING SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SIGNALS ARE MISSING

FOR A TYPICAL CAD SET-UP...NAMELY THE SFC HIGH IS NOT IN A

FAVORABLE ORIENTATION NOR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL

IGNORE GUIDANCE THAT IS ADVERTISING MAX TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT BELOW

80 DEGREES AND FAVOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. SCATTERED

CONVECTION STILL A THREAT SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND

COASTAL PLAIN ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. A MORE STABLE DRIER AIR

EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LESS

HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK

MAY BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

6z GFS shows the possible CAD and overall cool down. We can dream:

CAD (at day 6):

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Refreshing at day 7 (...to start July):

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=06&fhour=168&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

 

 

Hopefully, we got the big summer heatwave out of the way already. I would love to see temps in the 80s when I go down to Myrtle Beach in July and not in the 100s. 

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

6z GFS also shows 4.07" between now and late Sunday for RDU... I'll believe the cool down is coming, but not gonna bite on the precip amounts it's showing.

 

Hope the rain can hold off until late Saturday afternoon and Sunday. I'd like to wait to mow the lawn Saturday morning when it's not supposed to be so hot instead of having to do it in the evening sometime this week when it's 95 and feels like 100.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

12z GFS even colder...

 

3zswtb4.png

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Well after the cool down this weekend the 6z(and 0z) GFS would crank the heat back up for next week.

Day 6:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=24&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

We may be doomed to a long hot summer...

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

 

The Euro and CMC keep the trough going for the extended so maybe the GFS is just having trouble with the pattern change.....then again highs this time of year here average 90 at PGV so a high so 88-92 would be in the normal range for July.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

The Euro and CMC keep the trough going for the extended so maybe the GFS is just having trouble with the pattern change.....then again highs this time of year here average 90 at PGV so a high so 88-92 would be in the normal range for July.

Your right normal temps still equate to a long hot summer. Life in the south....

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

 

 

The Euro and CMC keep the trough going for the extended so maybe the GFS is just having trouble with the pattern change.....then again highs this time of year here average 90 at PGV so a high so 88-92 would be in the normal range for July.

 

 

High 80s and low 90s would be a relief after these last two weeks. Hope the humidity is lower, too.

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NRVwxfan.

NRVwxfan.

Posted
Posted

Thats close to normal. Its the Southeast, its gonna be hot.

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NRVwxfan.

NRVwxfan.

Posted
Posted

The record here for consecutive 90+ degrees days, was set in 1993 and was 38 days in a row!

Don't think we are going to see that, 13 or 14 days, at best, sorry Shetley, the '93 analog is no bueno! :)

And the record streak of 100F days in June set in 1952 for KCAE looks like it will remain the record. #Heatwavefail.

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