yotaman Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 That actually made me feel a little bit better. Too bad, it will take until mid-August before the average temps start dropping. Mid-August? Try mid-September here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I hate summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I hate summer. Second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Yes sir. The Euro hints at bringing a trough toward the east around D10. The GFS delays that by a day or so but by 300 (and through the end of the run), there is a nice trough in the east. It would be nice for that solution to hold.It's always 10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Weenies, weenies everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Looking like Bill will give most of the SE, 0 rain! It and the coldfront may drop us down to low-mid 90s over the weekend, then right back up to mid 90s-100+ next week! Summer is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I hate summer. Second I third that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I hate summer. Second I third that.. Fourth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 12z Euro once again showing a 597dm death ridge, +27 850's stretching across North Carolina next Wednesday...triple digit heat for all locations outside of the mountains. Even Asheville reaches 96. Charlotte 107, RDU 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 12z Euro once again showing a 597dm death ridge, +27 850's stretching across North Carolina next Wednesday...triple digit heat for all locations outside of the mountains. Even Asheville reaches 96. Charlotte 107, RDU 108 Most models have a good bit of the south with the chance for showers Wednesday-Saturday. That will cool things locally. I still maintain that the models don't have a good handle on the unfolding situation. If Bill slows down or the H to the north is a tad stronger at least mby is going to get some good rain out of this. As far as temps, I am only looking at the short range NMM & ARW for guidance. They have been nailinf it lately and I haven't seen anything above 102-103 on them for anyone. These clown maps being spit out in the long range are as delusional as the fantansy snowstorms we see all winter. Hvward..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Most models have a good bit of the south with the chance for showers Wednesday-Saturday. That will cool things locally. I still maintain that the models don't have a good handle on the unfolding situation. If Bill slows down or the H to the north is a tad stronger at least mby is going to get some good rain out of this. As far as temps, I am only looking at the short range NMM & ARW for guidance. They have been nailinf it lately and I haven't seen anything above 102-103 on them for anyone. These clown maps being spit out in the long range are as delusional as the fantansy snowstorms we see all winter. Hvward..... I'm with ya in regards to the clown maps...but just the fact that a 597dm ridge has been showing up for 2 straight runs and 850's ranging anywhere from +24 to +27, that's enough of a signal to be on the lookout... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Winner winner chicken dinner! Bill????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Just so we're all aware the Euro doesn't seem to be smoking anthing...12z GFS falls in line w/ long range heat. 2012 redoux Throw in a derecho and the 2012 redux will be complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Throw in a derecho and the 2012 redux will be complete. If that ridge is set up just right, someone may have to deal with one. I'd like some rain, but not 80+ mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Hoping we get some storms to cool things off a bit, but I doubt it. Not sure we can trust the long range models with anything, being the heat or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Hoping we get some storms to cool things off a bit, but I doubt it. Not sure we can trust the long range models with anything, being the heat or snow. It's not going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Hoping we get some storms to cool things off a bit, but I doubt it. Not sure we can trust the long range models with anything, being the heat or snow. I flat out guarantee some explosive storms for most parts of the Carolinas over the weekend, we almost never get big heat like this without the atmosphere giving it up eventually. Starting tomorrow for us the chances of storms gets better and better and once you get a few going in this kind of atmosphere things break down fast. I got no problem with it being 93 at 1 pm if by 5 its 72 after a raging thunderstorms.... This kind of event comes to mind http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Jul012012EventReview this is the storm out my backdoor as it moved in ...5 miles further east of me it really nailed Grimesland it looked like a tornado passed through Shaggy was the one filming, trees came down all over with it we estimate it to be 50-60 mph with maybe a peak gust to 70-75 in there.....across the street where all the tall pines are there were at least 5-10 that came down but we don't see it really on the video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzxlLhmUtNs Then of course there was the Erin Derecho after several days of heat like we have just had http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070821/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I flat out guarantee some explosive storms for most parts of the Carolinas over the weekend, we almost never get big heat like this without the atmosphere giving it up eventually. Starting tomorrow for us the chances of storms gets better and better and once you get a few going in this kind of atmosphere things break down fast. I got no problem with it being 93 at 1 pm if by 5 its 72 after a raging thunderstorms.... Yes, I remember when we used to get good storms a lot in the afternoons when it got hot like this. Doesn't seem to happen as much now. Hope your guarantee works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 WxSouth on the thunderstorms today. There's some good news for areas east of the mountains today---much better chance of Thunderstorms. There's no guarantee who gets them or exactly where they track, develop. The red zones appears where the better chances are, but really can't be ruled out anywhere since overalll things are slightly better to allow storms to form. Outflow boundaries from the Ohio Valley convection can set off some interactions, topographic, differential heating effects, etc. With all the heat still in place, any storms can become severe cells, and they will be pretty slow movers, some lasting past midnight in the Piedmont of NC, SC VA and maybe GA. But to be honest most areas still probably won't get hit--this is just a broad guess as to where the best chance lies, and anything is better than "nada" that has happened lately. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like the HRRR keeps the vast majority of the storms north or the NC/VA border. The RAP looks a lot better, however, with some good storms moving through the Piedmont this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 12z GFS temps at day 7 (looks like a 110 spot in S. Alabama): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 12z GFS temps at day 7 (looks like a 110 spot in S. Alabama): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Not too far behind that, based on that map run, down here either. I'm guessing 102 - 103 for here, if the model pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 12z GFS temps at day 7 (looks like a 110 spot in S. Alabama): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false I hope nobody is taking the GFS 2m temp.'s seriously due to its ridiculous hot bias at 2m. OTOH, it is still going to be disgustingly blazing, regardless, as 7-10 degrees cooler than those numbers would still be absolutely vile. This pattern cannot end soon enough. Blech! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I hope nobody is taking the GFS 2m temp.'s seriously due to its ridiculous hot bias at 2m. OTOH, it is still going to be disgustingly blazing, regardless, as 7-10 degrees cooler than those numbers would still be absolutely vile. This pattern cannot end soon enough. Blech!+1Too bad we can't get a wall to wall cold stretch in the winter, like we can a 2 week+ heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Looks like the HRRR keeps the vast majority of the storms north or the NC/VA border. The RAP looks a lot better, however, with some good storms moving through the Piedmont this evening. Still waiting. Baking at the t-ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Still waiting. Baking at the t-ball game. There's some storms north of Durham, but for the most part it looks like we're going to get skunked again. LONG LIVE HEAT AND DROUGHT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 WxSouth on the thunderstorms today. There's some good news for areas east of the mountains today---much better chance of Thunderstorms. There's no guarantee who gets them or exactly where they track, develop. The red zones appears where the better chances are, but really can't be ruled out anywhere since overalll things are slightly better to allow storms to form. Outflow boundaries from the Ohio Valley convection can set off some interactions, topographic, differential heating effects, etc. With all the heat still in place, any storms can become severe cells, and they will be pretty slow movers, some lasting past midnight in the Piedmont of NC, SC VA and maybe GA. But to be honest most areas still probably won't get hit--this is just a broad guess as to where the best chance lies, and anything is better than "nada" that has happened lately. Good luck! I was one of the lucky ones today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 There's some storms north of Durham, but for the most part it looks like we're going to get skunked again. LONG LIVE HEAT AND DROUGHT! Guess I could still get one, but not sure what happened to the storms that were moving this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 I was one of the lucky ones today... EMS.jpg Hail.jpg Lightning.jpg Two trees struck by two lightning bolts? Bet the people in that building needed a change of drawers. Pretty good proof that what few storms that do form in this miserable pattern can be quite violent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Two trees struck by two lightning bolts? Bet the people in that building needed a change of drawers. Pretty good proof that what few storms that do form in this miserable pattern can be quite violent. I don't know for sure but two separate bolts would be my assumption as well... The building in the background is actually non-residential, it is a tax service and insurance dealer inside of that building. Wonder if their electronics took a hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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