FallsLake Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 At least for CLT, the 6 hottest summers are as follows: 93-94 2010-2011 86-87 87-88 43-44 1881-1882 Only one of those were not great winters(43-44). Check this storm out for February 1987. I was not in this area at the time but would have loved to see 8" of sleet. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.frozen.19870217.gif **Did see close to that with this storm: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif Edit: I did a search on heavy sleet totals and got the below. Looks like that 87 storm was one of the largest sleet storms recorded. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/incredible-slee-1/6338 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Don't look at the new GFS if you like a cool and/or wet summer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Check this storm out for February 1987. I was not in this area at the time but would have loved to see 8" of sleet. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.frozen.19870217.gif **Did see close to that with this storm: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif Edit: I did a search on heavy sleet totals and got the below. Looks like that 87 storm was one of the largest sleet storms recorded. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/incredible-slee-1/6338 I was in WF for that one. What was interesting was all the sleet on the ground with almost none on rooftops or in trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Don't look at the new GFS if you like a cool and/or wet summer pattern. That's why I'm looking at past events. Can't stand to look at the near future.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I was in WF for that one. What was interesting was all the sleet on the ground with almost none on rooftops or in trees. That January 96 storm was also impressive. 14 hours of sleet with a total ~ 6". Capital Blvd towards Raleigh still only had one lane open a week after the storm. Maybe this year we'll get a repeat. From history it looks like we're the sleet hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Colder next week according to RAH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS (AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS) WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SAT/SUN...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT (AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT) EVOLVING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WED-FRI...MID 90S SAT/SUN...AND LOW/MID 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ON FRI/SAT. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 If the 12z GFS is right we are in for perhaps some of the hottest weather ever recorded in some of the southeast. All time state records would be in danger. And not even 1 day below 95 or so right through day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 If the 12z GFS is right we are in for perhaps some of the hottest weather ever recorded in some of the southeast. All time state records would be in danger. And not even 1 day below 95 or so right through day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 12z Euro looking atrocious too. Westerlies up north with the big 594 ridge over the south and southeast again toward the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Euro surface temps seem more reasonable than those of the GFS. I guess upper 90s is not much better than 105, but the GFS has a 2m hot bias. Updated GFS started overforecasting southern hemisphere heat immediately. So, the good news is not 105. The bad news is lots of upper 90s. Upper pattern is classic heat. When the sfc wind has a westerly component, upper 90s there. I'm just waiting for the shoe to drop our side of the Apps, which it will if the SER grows/shifts west any little bit. Knoxvegas just tied/broke a record high today, so perhaps foreshadowing. Stay cool and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Has anyone seen the NAVGEM or the Chinese model's surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Euro surface temps seem more reasonable than those of the GFS. I guess upper 90s is not much better than 105, but the GFS has a 2m hot bias. Updated GFS started overforecasting southern hemisphere heat immediately. So, the good news is not 105. The bad news is lots of upper 90s. Upper pattern is classic heat. When the sfc wind has a westerly component, upper 90s there. I'm just waiting for the shoe to drop our side of the Apps, which it will if the SER grows/shifts west any little bit. Knoxvegas just tied/broke a record high today, so perhaps foreshadowing. Stay cool and stay safe. I did notice that the GFS is off by at least 5-8 degrees today, at least in upstate SC. It forecasted 100-102 or so today and it looks like most of the area will only make it to 95-97 or so. Hopefully it is off by just as much or more for the next few days. I only am looking at the 500MB chart and 850 temps for every 24 hours on the Euro so I could only make a guess it what it shows for temps on the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 I did notice that the GFS is off by at least 5-8 degrees today, at least in upstate SC. It forecasted 100-102 or so today and it looks like most of the area will only make it to 95-97 or so. Hopefully it is off by just as much or more for the next few days. I only am looking at the 500MB chart and 850 temps for every 24 hours on the Euro so I could only make a guess it what it shows for temps on the surface.. I don't know what has happened to the GFS at 2M but I fear it has fallen off its rocker in some cases. As of 18Z, the 12Z GFS had these: CHS prog 102; actual 96; ATL prog 99; actual 93 Beaufort, SC prog 102; actual 95 So, for these three cities, the 12Z GFS was a whopping 6-7 F too hot forecasting just 6 hours out!! That is atrocious! So, be cautious, folks. I got the actual forecasted 2M's off of Meteostar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 I don't know what has happened to the GFS at 2M but I fear it has fallen off its rocker in some cases. As of 18Z, the 12Z GFS had these: CHS prog 102; actual 96; ATL prog 99; actual 93 Beaufort, SC prog 102; actual 95 So, for these three cities, the 12Z GFS was a whopping 6-7 F too hot forecasting just 6 hours out!! That is atrocious! So, be cautious, folks. I got the actual forecasted 2M's off of Meteostar. Has there been a case before with a strong El Nino where the Carolinas and Georgia have a summer of wall to wall heat and drought?. It seems That Robert(WXSouth) is calling for just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 Has there been a case before with a strong El Nino where the Carolinas and Georgia have a summer of wall to wall heat and drought?. It seems That Robert(WXSouth) is calling for just that. The closest I can think of is 2002. That was a dry hot summer, but not quite wall to wall. It did stay hot until mid Sept though. Then it got very wet the rest of that fall and on into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 15, 2015 Author Share Posted June 15, 2015 Has there been a case before with a strong El Nino where the Carolinas and Georgia have a summer of wall to wall heat and drought?. It seems That Robert(WXSouth) is calling for just that. Looking at KATL at the eight comparable Nino analogs (2nd year strong to super or standalone super) since 1879, the hottest June I found was 1987's 77.8, which is only 1.4 warmer than normal and is 3.4 cooler than the warmest June on record. For comparison sake, there have been ten Junes (of all Junes since 1879..not just El Nino Junes) that were 80F+. July and August of 1987 went on to be quite hot. The subsequent winter, 1987-8, gave KATL a 4.2" mainly IP storm, which was enough to make it a memorable winter. That was the equivalent of ~8.5" of snow. Looking at standalone oncoming strong Nino's: - the hottest June I found was 1925's 80.0, which was 3.6 F hotter than normal. July and Aug of 1925 went on to be hot (over 2F hotter than normal). No sig. wintry precip. that winter. - Next hottest of these: 2009's 79.8. However, Jul-Aug weren't hotter than normal. A great winter followed. - Third hottest of these: 1899's 79.6. Jul-Aug averaged pretty hot at ~1.5 f warmer than normal. The subsequent winter had very little wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 GFS for 18Z June 23 CMC for 18Z June 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Lol you know the CMC is wrong on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I know this is in the long range...but tonight's GFS Ensembles look nasty even right along the Blue Ridge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Gonna take a cane to break this pattern. If we get locked into this hot and dry pattern thru the fourth everything in my yard, garden and neighborhood will be deader than dead. Already cant keep up with the garden water needs. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 6z GFS looking crisp all the way out to day 10: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=06&fhour=228¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Or should I have said crispy... Way out in fantasy land the pattern does look to break down some...but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 6z GFS looking crisp all the way out to day 10: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=06&fhour=228¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Or should I have said crispy... Way out in fantasy land the pattern does look to break down some...but who knows Yes sir. The Euro hints at bringing a trough toward the east around D10. The GFS delays that by a day or so but by 300 (and through the end of the run), there is a nice trough in the east. It would be nice for that solution to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 6z GFS looking crisp all the way out to day 10: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=06&fhour=228¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Or should I have said crispy... Way out in fantasy land the pattern does look to break down some...but who knows Looks like some -30s showing up in the southeast - me likes! Another bias the GFS seems to have is the heat blob over the Upstate. Yes downslopping heats us up but it always shows us being the hottest area. In reality, the area between Cola to FLO to RDU and south to Augusta and Walterboro is almost always the hottest area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 00z Euro with a 597dm High over TN....reminded me of the 2012 heat wave max high 597dm as well. Ridge is a lot bigger and widespread in 2012 but still cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 6z GFS looking crisp all the way out to day 10: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=06&fhour=228¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Or should I have said crispy... Way out in fantasy land the pattern does look to break down some...but who knows Gotta love that pocket if 105+ near jshetley's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Gotta love that pocket if 105+ near jshetley's house. He called it only fitting he gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Just so we're all aware the Euro doesn't seem to be smoking anthing...12z GFS falls in line w/ long range heat. 2012 redoux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 TWC forecast now has many of us being hotter next week than this week, with mid - upper 90s the entire 15 day outlook (just one day of 92 thrown in there)! Somebody help us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 TWC forecast now has many of us being hotter next week than this week, with mid - upper 90s the entire 15 day outlook (just one day of 92 thrown in there)! Somebody help us!! Don't worry. The days will start getting shorter in about 5 days. Winter is on it's way ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Don't worry. The days will start getting shorter in about 5 days. Winter is on it's way ! That actually made me feel a little bit better. Too bad, it will take until mid-August before the average temps start dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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