mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 1:43 AM, Cold Rain said: We'll wait for Shetley's and Marietta's presentation of temperature and precipitation data comparisons before breaking open the Dom Perignon and toasting a great call.I think JB goes cold and extra snowy for his areas every winter, and when he hits, he looks like Nastradumass , when he misses, doesn't seem to get as much notice, from the general public, we tear him a new one, but that's what we would do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 1:43 AM, Cold Rain said: We'll wait for Shetley's and Marietta's presentation of temperature and precipitation data comparisons before breaking open the Dom Perignon and toasting a great call. Nah his off the cuff analog was pretty close. Even with the flooding rains just displaced a few hundred miles. The heat has been unrelenting out west of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 1:48 AM, Met1985 said: Lol. This has been an up and down summer so far. Looks like we will cool off a bit starting tomorrow through the weekend then another big ridge builds in. I feel bad for the piedmont and parts of the upstate as they have been dry as a bone so far. Yeah, it hasn't been too bad here. For all I know, it might be just like 1993, but until I see some real data supporting the idea, it's just a bunch of hyperbole. But hey, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Our top notch local fox weather woman , says tomorrow is the day for us to score with big storms and sever!? Anxiously holding my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 1:55 AM, Cold Rain said: Yeah, it hasn't been too bad here. For all I know, it might be just like 1993, but until I see some real data supporting the idea, it's just a bunch of hyperbole. But hey, it is what it is. I know it's hard to believe but there is weather in places other than Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 2:08 AM, MariettaWx said: I know it's hard to believe but there is weather in places other than Raleigh.Not according to Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 2:08 AM, MariettaWx said: I know it's hard to believe but there is weather in places other than Raleigh. Nope. Just in Raleigh and the surrounding NC climes. No other weather matters. But, I'm with CR on this. I want actual data at the end of the summer that verifies the Shetley Prognostication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 2:05 AM, mackerel_sky said: Our top notch local fox weather woman , says tomorrow is the day for us to score with big storms and sever!? Anxiously holding my breath! lol we'll see about that. 0z Hires NAM says basically nada. 18z GFS was another glorious run for the upstate.. It's locked on to dryness now and isn't going to let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 2:30 AM, calculus1 said: Nope. Just in Raleigh and the surrounding NC climes. No other weather matters. But, I'm with CR on this. I want actual data at the end of the summer that verifies the Shetley Prognostication. He's been saying 1993 ever since about April, 5-10 times per week! Mike drop..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 1:43 AM, Cold Rain said: We'll wait for Shetley's and Marietta's presentation of temperature and precipitation data comparisons before breaking open the Dom Perignon and toasting a great call. This data is for Greenville SC temps were 2.2 degrees above normal for June and July is currently 1.7 degrees above normal. In 1993 GSP was 3.4 degrees above normal in June and 6.4 above normal in July....... Rainfall is .17" in June 1993 and 3.02" in June 2015...... .75" in July 1993 and 1.52" in July 2015.... So really its not even close to 1993 there.... but it has been above normal in temps and below normal in rainfall the last few months in the upstate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 It has been hot and dry for sure, but not quite like 1993 unless August turns really hot and even drier. Thankfully the flooding in the midwest and in Texas was also nothing like 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 11:17 AM, jshetley said: It has been hot and dry for sure, but not quite like 1993 unless August turns really hot and even drier. Thankfully the flooding in the midwest and in Texas was also nothing like 1993. Agreed, there are similarities but this year was not as extreme. I'm also missing a March blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 12:06 PM, MariettaWx said: Agreed, there are similarities but this year was not as extreme. I'm also missing a March blizzard.I'm missing a high school graduation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 The GFS is obviously having issues with temps but its seems to mainly be over certain areas for example the 06Z run this morning is showing the 18Z temp for today in GSP as 106 that's 12 above the NWS forecasted high of 94. It is consistently 5-10 degrees off over much of GA and SC but IMBY its fairly close with a call of 93 today. Euro and even the GFS now show the pattern change the end of next week......this works out for me as I am headed north to New England which will begin enjoying this pattern change early next week and then by the time I head back home that change should make it to the SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 1:24 PM, downeastnc said: The GFS is obviously having issues with temps but its seems to mainly be over certain areas for example the 06Z run this morning is showing the 18Z temp for today in GSP as 106 that's 12 above the NWS forecasted high of 94. It is consistently 5-10 degrees off over much of GA and SC but IMBY its fairly close with a call of 93 today. Euro and even the GFS now show the pattern change the end of next week......this works out for me as I am headed north to New England which will begin enjoying this pattern change early next week and then by the time I head back home that change should make it to the SE.... Day 7 GFS looks good for our area but take it with a grain of salt: High temp: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Dew points(next hour frames have dew points dropping over our area): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=07&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 10:24 AM, downeastnc said: This data is for Greenville SC temps were 2.2 degrees above normal for June and July is currently 1.7 degrees above normal. In 1993 GSP was 3.4 degrees above normal in June and 6.4 above normal in July....... Rainfall is .17" in June 1993 and 3.02" in June 2015...... .75" in July 1993 and 1.52" in July 2015.... So really its not even close to 1993 there.... but it has been above normal in temps and below normal in rainfall the last few months in the upstate.... Drops mic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 2:05 AM, mackerel_sky said: Our top notch local fox weather woman , says tomorrow is the day for us to score with big storms and sever!? Anxiously holding my breath! Still holding your breath? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Still a small chance of rain this evening, then none for the next 7 days with highs of 91-96 every day. The 12z GFS says it stays very dry here right through the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Closest storm is Columbia ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I guess it could be worse . Bandar Iran has a temp of 109 with a dewpoint of 90 and a heat index of 159. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 9:02 PM, mackerel_sky said: Closest storm is Columbia ! Oh well, maybe it will rain in a couple weeks. Figured this wet pattern that was being shown wouldn't pan out as we got closer. Just like those fantasy storms in winter, always 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 9:53 PM, jshetley said: I guess it could be worse . Bandar Iran has a temp of 109 with a dewpoint of 90 and a heat index of 159. how do people live there ? Or I guess the better question is WHY would they live there ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 10:41 PM, snowstorm2011 said: how do people live there ? Or I guess the better question is WHY would they live there ?myou can't choose where you are born!I'm excited about the lower humidity and upper 90s this weekend, and no rain, perfection! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 8:08 PM, jshetley said: Still a small chance of rain this evening, then none for the next 7 days with highs of 91-96 every day. The 12z GFS says it stays very dry here right through the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 10:40 PM, sparklecity said: Oh well, maybe it will rain in a couple weeks. Figured this wet pattern that was being shown wouldn't pan out as we got closer. Just like those fantasy storms in winter, always 10 days away. Yea, because the GFS has such a superb record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 9:53 PM, jshetley said: I guess it could be worse . Bandar Iran has a temp of 109 with a dewpoint of 90 and a heat index of 159. Thought that was the average july weather in Jonesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 On 7/30/2015 at 10:41 PM, snowstorm2011 said: how do people live there ? Or I guess the better question is WHY would they live there ? I heard the all time record was set in Saudi Arabia on the Persian gulf coast. 108F with a HI of 176. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 On 7/31/2015 at 12:31 AM, scwxfan said: Yea, because the GFS has such a superb record. It's been pretty spot on having lee side minimum all summer. Temperatures suck, but other than that it has been ok. NAM and HRRR have been pretty bad at times. CMC has been terrible with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 On 7/31/2015 at 12:35 AM, sparklecity said: It's been pretty spot on having lee side minimum all summer. Temperatures suck, but other than that it has been ok. NAM and HRRR have been pretty bad at times. CMC has been terrible with precip. I had that much or more rain than thats showing for my area just today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 On 7/31/2015 at 12:37 AM, scwxfan said: I had that much or more rain than thats showing for my area just today. Well, it's not a mesoscale model so you can't expect it to pinpoint where thunderstorms are going to occur. Even the mesoscale models don't do it that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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